Republican Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa, a prominent figure in her party since 2015, is poised to announce on Thursday, September 4, 2025, that she will not seek reelection in 2026, according to multiple sources cited by CBS News. This anticipated announcement, which comes after months of speculation about her political future, marks another significant departure from the Senate, joining a growing list of GOP lawmakers stepping down ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Ernst, 55, has been a stalwart of the Republican Party, rising to the No. 3 leadership position in the Senate GOP conference and earning a reputation as a reliable supporter of President Donald Trump’s agenda. Her career has been marked by a deep connection to her Iowa roots—growing up in rural southwestern Iowa, graduating from Iowa State University, and serving as a lieutenant colonel in the Iowa Army National Guard after tours in Kuwait and Iraq. Before her Senate tenure, she held positions in local and state government, building a reputation as a pragmatic yet deeply conservative leader.
Her decision not to run for a third term, sources tell CBS News, is rooted in a long-held intention to serve only two terms. Ernst has told those close to her that she feels she has accomplished what she set out to do and now plans to transition to the private sector. This move, while not entirely unexpected, has already begun to reshape the landscape of Iowa politics. Several Democrats, including state Senator Zach Wahls, state Representative Josh Turek, and Des Moines School Board chairwoman Jackie Norris, have jumped into the race, eager to contest an open seat in a state that has trended increasingly red in recent cycles.
Despite persistent questions over her intentions, Ernst remained coy in public, only recently hinting at her plans. Earlier in August, she projected confidence in her party’s hold on Iowa, telling the Westside Conservative Club, “Every day we get a new Democratic member of the House or Senate that decides to run for this Senate seat — bring it on. Bring it on, folks. Because I tell you, at the end of the day, Iowa is going to be red.” These remarks underscored not only her own belief in the Republican Party’s dominance in the state but also the competitive atmosphere already brewing ahead of 2026.
The White House, according to CBS News, had hoped Ernst would run again, preferring her steady hand over the uncertainty that comes with open-seat contests. Her departure adds to a wave of Republican exits, including North Carolina’s Thom Tillis, Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville, and Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell. Tennessee’s Marsha Blackburn has announced a run for governor, though her Senate term extends until 2030. The cumulative effect of these departures is a Senate map that, while favorable for Republicans on paper, is not without its risks.
Karl Rove, the veteran GOP strategist known for his role in the George W. Bush White House, weighed in on the shifting dynamics during a recent appearance on Fox News’ Sunday Night in America with Trey Gowdy. Rove acknowledged the opportunity presented by a Senate map that largely favors Republicans, with most contested seats in reliably red states such as Idaho. Yet he cautioned that the exodus of high-profile incumbents like Ernst and Tillis could be a double-edged sword. “Yeah, I think that’s right,” Rove said when asked if the Senate has “lost its allure” after Ernst and Tillis confirmed their departures. “The Senate map, fortunately, for the Republicans, is good. That is to say, most of the seats that are up next year are in red states where the likelihood of winning the Senate race in Idaho for the Democrats is very small.”
But Rove was quick to sound a note of warning about the broader political environment. “Yes, it is a sign of, sort of like people’s exhaustion with the way politics is conducted today. And we are going to lose some good people as a result.” He pointed to battleground states such as Michigan, where an open seat has already drawn national attention; Georgia, where Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff is up for reelection; and North Carolina, where Tillis’s retirement leaves the seat vulnerable. Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell, another GOP heavyweight, has also announced he will not seek reelection, further complicating the Republican calculus.
One of the most pressing challenges for the GOP, Rove noted, is the rapid growth of unaffiliated voters. “The Republican registration numbers have gotten a lot better, but the number of unaffiliated voters has grown faster than the number of Republican net gain by about a margin of eight to one, and that’s a problem—actually, four to one,” he explained. “That’s a problem. So the electorate next year that the Republicans and Democrats will both have to be focused on are people who are up for grabs, and whoever makes the better case to them, whether it’s a race for the Senate, House, or governor, will be in a much better situation.”
This surge in unaffiliated voters introduces a new layer of unpredictability into the 2026 midterms. While Republican registration has improved in many states, the pace at which independent voters are joining the rolls far outstrips party gains, making it essential for both parties to court these swing voters aggressively. As Rove put it, “whoever makes the better case to them… will be in a much better situation.”
The internal strains within the GOP have not gone unnoticed. Former President Donald Trump, never one to shy away from intra-party conflict, lashed out at Rove after the strategist suggested Trump’s 2024 victory was less a mandate for his policies and more a rejection of the alternative. In a Truth Social post, Trump derided Rove as a “Republican in name only,” writing, “RINO Karl Rove, when asked on Fox & Friends this morning how to explain the tremendous success of the Republican Party, with millions of people joining it, and the Dems losing millions, was unable to give an answer. He just couldn’t utter the words, PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP! But that’s OK, the PEOPLE get it, and always have!!!” Trump’s public rebuke highlights the ongoing tension between the party’s establishment wing and its populist base, a dynamic that could further complicate efforts to hold or expand the GOP’s Senate majority.
For Iowa, Ernst’s departure opens a new chapter. Her background as a military veteran, her rapid ascent in Republican leadership, and her close ties to the Trump administration—she was even interviewed as a potential vice presidential pick in 2016 before withdrawing from consideration—have made her a formidable presence in national politics. Her decision to step aside will undoubtedly trigger a high-stakes contest to fill her seat, with Democrats sensing an opportunity and Republicans eager to maintain their grip on a state that has become increasingly central to the party’s electoral strategy.
As the 2026 midterms approach, the GOP faces a landscape filled with both promise and peril. The favorable Senate map offers a path to retaining or even expanding their majority, but the loss of experienced incumbents like Ernst—and the unpredictable rise of unaffiliated voters—means nothing can be taken for granted. The battle for Iowa, and for the Senate at large, is only just beginning.
Ernst’s exit, set against the backdrop of broader Republican turnover and shifting voter allegiances, signals a period of transition and uncertainty for the party. The choices made in the coming months—by candidates, party leaders, and voters alike—will shape not just the outcome of the next election, but the direction of the GOP for years to come.
