As the U.S. government shutdown drags into its third week, the mood on Capitol Hill has grown tense and weary. On October 16, 2025, Senate Democrats rejected for the tenth time a stopgap spending bill that would have reopened the government, sticking firmly to their demand that Congress address the looming expiration of health care subsidies. The vote, which failed 51-45, fell well short of the 60 votes needed to overcome the Senate’s filibuster rules, according to reporting by the Associated Press.
The daily ritual of voting on the same funding bill has become a symbol of the deepening gridlock. With each failed attempt, the sense of urgency grows—not just in the halls of Congress, but across the country, as hundreds of thousands of federal workers remain furloughed and millions more face uncertainty about their next paycheck. The shutdown, now in its seventeenth day, is poised to surpass the 16-day closure of 2013, which was itself triggered by a dispute over the Affordable Care Act. However, it still falls short of the record 35-day shutdown that ended in 2019.
The consequences of the stalemate are already being felt. The White House budget office informed Congress that it cost $6.5 billion just to cover the most recent military pay period. With another payday looming in two weeks, there’s no guarantee that payments will continue if the impasse drags on. While the military has been paid for now, the uncertainty has left many service members and their families on edge.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a Republican from South Dakota, has repeatedly tried to pressure Democrats to change course. “The Democratic Party is the party that will not take yes for an answer,” Thune declared in a heated floor speech, as reported by the AP. He’s even offered to hold a later vote on extending health plan subsidies, but stopped short of guaranteeing any specific outcome. His message is clear: reopen the government first, then negotiate on health care. But so far, Democrats aren’t biting.
For Democrats, the issue is non-negotiable. They’re demanding a firm guarantee that Congress will extend tax credits for Affordable Care Act (ACA) health plans, a move they say is essential to prevent a spike in premiums for nearly 24 million Americans who buy insurance through subsidized marketplaces. “The ACA crisis is looming over everyone’s head, and yet Republicans seem ready to let people’s premiums spike,” said Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer in a floor speech. Their concern is not hypothetical. Health insurers are set to send out notices of premium increases in most states by November 1—just two weeks away. If Congress fails to act, millions of small business owners, farmers, and independent contractors could soon face much higher health care costs.
Senator Patty Murray, the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, has been vocal about the real-world impact of the impasse. She described hearing from “families who are absolutely panicking about their premiums that are doubling.” According to her, many are small business owners who may be forced to abandon the work they love in search of employer-sponsored health care, or worse, forgo coverage altogether. The stakes, Democrats argue, are simply too high to back down now.
Republicans, for their part, are divided. While some acknowledge that letting the ACA tax credits expire could be a problem, there’s little consensus on how to fix it. House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican from Louisiana, dismissed the COVID-era subsidies as a “boondoggle.” Former President Donald Trump has said he would “like to see a deal done for great health care,” but has not engaged meaningfully in the debate. Thune and other Senate GOP leaders have insisted that Democrats must first vote to reopen the government before any negotiations on health care can begin.
Meanwhile, bipartisan talks have sputtered. While some senators on both sides have floated potential compromises, none have gained enough traction to move the needle. The deadlock has left Congress effectively paralyzed, with the House of Representatives having left Washington altogether, leaving the Senate to hash out the standoff on its own.
In a bid to shift the narrative, Thune tried a different approach on Thursday, holding a vote to proceed to appropriations bills that would fund the Department of Defense and potentially other parts of the government. The move was designed to force Democrats to choose between their health care priorities and supporting the military. But the ploy failed, with the vote coming in at 50-44. Only three Democrats—Catherine Cortez Masto, John Fetterman, and Jeanne Shaheen—broke ranks to support the measure. Thune, frustrated, accused Democrats of being “fundamentally uninterested in supporting our troops and defending our country.”
Democrats countered that Republicans had abandoned the spirit of bipartisanship by focusing narrowly on defense spending and ignoring other vital programs. “We believe that we need a strong defense, but we believe we need strong health care, we need strong safety for the American people, we need strong programs that help them with so many other issues, mental health and education,” Schumer said on Thursday. Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, echoed this sentiment, saying he would not vote to “move forward on appropriations bills until they’re serious about stopping health care premiums from going up.”
The impasse has left many in Washington—and across the country—wondering how, or even when, the standoff will end. As House Speaker Johnson candidly admitted, “So many of you have asked all of us, how will it end? We have no idea.”
For now, the only certainty is uncertainty. As the shutdown stretches on, the pressure on lawmakers to find a solution is mounting. With the November 1 deadline for health care premium notices fast approaching, and with the livelihoods of millions hanging in the balance, the stakes could hardly be higher. Whether Congress can break the deadlock before more damage is done remains an open—and urgent—question.
