The stage is set for a fiercely contested 2026 midterm election season, with both parties scrambling to secure control of the U.S. Senate and House in a political landscape that has shifted dramatically over recent years. The upcoming races are marked by high-profile retirements, open seats, and battleground districts that could tip the balance of power in Washington, D.C.
According to CNN, Iowa Republican Senator Joni Ernst, age 55, will not seek a third term in 2026. Her expected formal announcement next week will open a coveted Senate seat in the heartland, sparking a competitive race in a state that has trended increasingly Republican in recent cycles. Ernst, first elected in 2014 and known nationally for her “Make ‘em squeal” campaign slogan pledging to cut government spending, has been a prominent figure in the Senate. Yet, she has sometimes found herself navigating the chasm between traditional conservatives and the Trump-aligned base, especially after controversial remarks like telling a constituent worried about Medicaid cuts, “we are all going to die,” at a town hall.
With Ernst’s departure, Representative Ashley Hinson, another Iowa Republican, is preparing to enter the Senate race, as confirmed by a GOP official to CNN. National Republicans have long viewed Hinson as a formidable contender, anticipating the possibility of Ernst’s retirement. On the Democratic side, the field is already crowded: state Representative Josh Turek, a Paralympian wheelchair basketball player, state Senator Zach Wahls, Knoxville Chamber of Commerce executive director Nathan Sage, and Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris have all declared their candidacies. State Representative J.D. Scholten launched a campaign but bowed out earlier this month, throwing his support behind Turek, according to CBS News.
The stakes are high for both parties. Democrats need to flip four Senate seats in 2026 to regain control of the upper chamber, with their main target being an open-seat race in North Carolina. But they are also eyeing opportunities in Iowa, Ohio, Maine, and Texas, as noted by CBS News. The Senate map is daunting: Democrats are defending 13 seats, while Republicans must hold onto 24. Many of the Republican seats are in states that President Trump won handily in 2024, making Democratic gains an uphill battle.
North Carolina emerges as a critical battleground. GOP Senator Thom Tillis’s retirement in June 2025 has created an open seat, and former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, a two-term governor and the state’s longest-serving attorney general, announced his Senate bid in July. The Republican side is headlined by Michael Whatley, the Republican National Committee chairman, who is leaning on his conservative credentials and a Trump endorsement to bolster his campaign. As CBS News reports, this race is expected to be among the most expensive of the cycle, reflecting its significance for Senate control.
Other key Senate contests include Georgia, where Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff seeks a second term in a state that flipped back to Trump in 2024. Ossoff’s narrow 2020 win secured a Democratic Senate majority, but the political winds have shifted. Republicans are already lining up to challenge him, with Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins, as well as former Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, entering the race. Although Georgia Governor Brian Kemp declined to run, Dooley is widely seen as his choice. The GOP primary is expected to be bruising, and the outcome could determine the fate of the Democratic majority.
In New Hampshire, Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s decision not to seek reelection opens a competitive race in a state where Republicans have controlled the governor’s office since 2017, but have not won a Senate seat since 2010. Former Senator Scott Brown and State Senator Dan Innis are vying for the GOP nomination, while Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, endorsed by Shaheen, faces a primary challenge from medical scientist Karishma Manzur.
Michigan’s Senate race is also drawing national attention following Democratic Senator Gary Peters’ surprise retirement announcement in January. The Democratic primary is crowded, with Rep. Haley Stevens, state Senator Mallory McMorrow, and former health official Abdul El-Sayed among the contenders. On the Republican side, former Rep. Mike Rogers, endorsed by Trump, has launched a bid. The state’s large Arab-American population and the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict are expected to be pivotal issues in the primary, according to CBS News.
Meanwhile, the Texas Senate race has become a battleground within the GOP itself. Attorney General Ken Paxton, a staunch Trump ally, is challenging incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a heated primary. Cornyn, who has served since 2002 and was once the Senate’s No. 2 Republican, has worked to mend fences with Trump after questioning his 2024 viability. The infighting has added uncertainty to the race, and Democrats hope to capitalize if Paxton prevails. Former Rep. Colin Allred, who lost to Senator Ted Cruz by more than eight points last year, is running again, betting that a divided GOP could improve his chances.
Maine and Minnesota are also on the Democrats’ radar. In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins, known for her independent streak, faces a challenge as Democrats attempt to recruit Governor Janet Mills and political newcomer Graham Platner. In Minnesota, Democratic Senator Tina Smith’s retirement creates an open seat for the first time since 2008, with Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig leading the Democratic field, while the GOP field remains unsettled.
Beyond the Senate, the House of Representatives is in play, especially in the industrial Midwest. Fox News Digital reports that Republicans are targeting two Democratic-held congressional seats that Trump won in 2024: Ohio’s 9th District, held by Rep. Marcy Kaptur, and Michigan’s 8th District, represented by freshman Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet. Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in Congress, saw her vote share drop from 68% in 2016 to 48% in 2024. GOP Rep. Brian Jack, now leading candidate recruitment for House Republicans, said, “Kaptur has represented Toledo for 42 years, which is longer than some of our candidates have been alive.” He added that Kaptur’s votes to impeach Trump twice were out of step with her district, which Trump carried with 53% in 2024.
The Republican field in Ohio’s 9th District includes former nominee Derek Merrin, state Rep. Josh Williams, Air National Guard Lt. Col. Alea Nadeem, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Wayne Kinsel, and possibly State Senate President Rob McColley. In Michigan’s 8th District, Republican Navy veteran Amir Hassan is challenging McDonald Rivet. Her campaign spokesperson told Fox News Digital, “She has proven countless times throughout her career that she will work with anyone, regardless of party, to accomplish that, and she has bipartisan bills that will lower key costs, like medicine, taxes, and eggs. However, she will also fight tirelessly against any agenda that prioritizes billionaires over lower costs for working people.”
With over a third of the Senate and all House seats up for grabs, and with control of Congress hanging in the balance, the 2026 midterms promise to be a political rollercoaster. The outcome will hinge on a handful of pivotal races, shifting demographics, and the ability of both parties to energize their bases in an era of deep partisan divides. Voters and candidates alike are bracing for what could be a defining moment in American politics.
