On a windswept weekend in early November 2025, the United Kingdom’s much-touted “one in, one out” migrant deal with France faced renewed scrutiny after a second deported migrant managed to return to British shores by small boat. The Home Office confirmed that the man, detected immediately upon arrival thanks to biometric checks, was swiftly detained and now awaits expedited removal back to France. This episode, echoing a similar case just weeks prior, has reignited fierce debate over the effectiveness of the UK’s latest attempt to curb illegal Channel crossings.
The “one in, one out” treaty, struck in September 2025 between the UK and France, was designed to deter migrants from making the perilous journey across the English Channel by returning those who arrive illegally in small boats. In exchange, France may send to the UK the same number of people who have never previously attempted illegal entry. According to BBC, the first flight under the agreement, carrying an Indian national, landed in Paris on September 18, marking the operational start of the scheme.
Since then, the Home Office reports that 94 migrants have been returned to France, while 57 individuals have arrived in the UK under the reciprocal arrangement. The department claims its cooperation with France has prevented more than 20,000 illegal Channel crossing attempts so far in 2025. Yet, the raw numbers tell a more complicated story: on Sunday, November 9 alone, 349 people made the journey in five boats, pushing the year’s total to 39,075—already surpassing the entire figures for 2024 and 2023, though still 2% below the same point in 2022, the highest year on record (Sky News).
The latest returnee, whose identity has not been disclosed, follows the case of an Iranian man who, after being removed to France in September, crossed back into the UK by small boat in October, only to be deported again the following week. The Home Office’s response was unequivocal. “His case will be expedited, and he will be returned to France as quickly as possible,” a spokesperson said, adding, “The message is clear: if you try to return to the UK you will be sent back. We will do whatever it takes to scale up removals of illegal migrants and secure our borders.”
Downing Street was quick to claim the incident as proof that the system is working as intended. The prime minister’s official spokesman told reporters, “You’ve got a person who’s arrived at the front door, who’s been detected immediately, their journey has been wasted completely. They are in line to return to France, just as the previous case was—out of pocket and out of chances, they are destined to go back straight to France and their money spent on this dangerous crossing will have been spent in vain.”
But not everyone is convinced. Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservative Party, dismissed the government’s response as “rinse-and-repeat chaos from a government with no backbone and no plan.” Her shadow home secretary, Chris Philp, was even more scathing, arguing, “The Channel is now a revolving door for illegal immigration, and Keir Starmer is waving them through with taxpayer-funded hotel keys... Starmer is completely out of his depth.” Philp contended that nearly 18,000 migrants have arrived in the UK since the deal was struck, with “only a handful removed...which is why they continue to flood in.” He insisted that only the Conservatives have a clear plan to tackle illegal migration, including leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and removing all illegal immigrants within a week of arrival. “But Keir Starmer doesn’t have the backbone to do this, and Reform are a one-man band with no detailed plans,” he added (BBC).
On the other side of the aisle, Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesperson Max Wilkinson accused the Home Office of “staggering levels of incompetence.” He argued, “Once again, the Home Office has shown staggering levels of incompetence. Labour—and the Conservatives before them—have failed to break the grip of the gangs and bring the numbers down. Failures like this show just how broken our system is. Enough is enough. Now is the time for Labour to back up their big promises with actions.” Wilkinson also called for asylum seekers to be moved out of hotels and for “large-scale returns agreements” with all safe countries (The Independent).
Amid the political crossfire, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is reportedly considering a major overhaul of the UK’s immigration rules, drawing inspiration from Denmark’s approach. At the Labour conference in September, Mahmood promised to “do whatever it takes” to regain control of Britain’s borders, and she has expressed admiration for Denmark’s ability to drive successful asylum claims to a 40-year low. Proposed measures include tightening rules on family reunions and making it easier to remove those found to have no right to stay (BBC).
For the hundreds of migrants who continue to risk their lives each week, the reality on the ground remains fraught with uncertainty. Government statistics show that 621 people crossed the Channel last Thursday, 648 on Friday, and 503 on Saturday, with more than 36,000 making the journey so far in 2025. While these rates are higher than the same period in 2024, they are still below the record-breaking figures of 2022 (The Independent).
Critics on all sides agree that the system is under strain. About 100 men detained after arriving in the UK on small boats have been sent to immigration removal centres near Heathrow and told they may be returned to France. The government insists that biometric checks and immediate detentions are proof of progress. “He was immediately detected at the front door, thanks to those biometrics being taken,” the prime minister’s spokesperson noted. “Indeed, you’ll have seen reporting over the last few days, you’re starting to hear testimony from migrants who don’t want to risk their lives again on these dangerous crossings, and our new returns agreement sends a clear warning for those wanting to enter this country illegally who come here by small boats—‘You’re wasting your time, your money, and you are risking your life’.”
Still, the headlines continue, and the Channel crossings show little sign of abating. The government’s message may be clear, but for many migrants, the risks and motivations remain compelling. As political leaders debate and policies shift, the English Channel remains a stage for one of the UK’s most pressing and contentious challenges—one where the stakes are measured not just in numbers, but in lives, hopes, and the ever-shifting tides of politics and policy.
