Scotland is facing a mounting crisis in its criminal justice system, as new figures reveal record prison overcrowding and a backlog of thousands of unexecuted arrest warrants for serious crimes including murder and rape. The situation has sparked fierce debate among politicians, prison officials, and police, with many warning that the system is at breaking point and urgent action is needed to restore public safety and confidence.
On October 21, 2025, the Scottish Prison Service (SPS) reported that the nation’s prison population had reached a new all-time high of 8,430 people behind bars, surpassing the previous record of 8,420 set in 2012. The population remained above 8,400 for the entire week, far exceeding the system’s designed operating capacity of 7,805. According to the SPS, this means Scotland’s prisons are now holding more than 600 additional inmates—enough to fill an entire extra facility the size of HMP Grampian or HMP Shotts.
Chief among the drivers of this surge is a marked increase in long-term sentences of four years or more. The long-term prison population has climbed to 4,012, over 600 higher than just two years ago. In contrast, the number of short-term prisoners has actually declined by about 130 over the same period. The number of individuals held on remand—those awaiting trial—also remains stubbornly high at around 2,180, representing 26% of all those in custody and showing no return to pre-pandemic levels.
Efforts to ease overcrowding have so far fallen short. Last summer, the Scottish Government implemented an emergency early release of some prisoners, and earlier this year, the Prisoners (Early Release) Scotland Act 2025 changed the release point for eligible short-term prisoners from 50% to 40% of their sentence. Despite these measures, the prison population has continued to rise sharply. In early October 2025, the government announced yet another early release scheme, still pending approval from Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs).
Meanwhile, the conditions inside some of Scotland’s most notorious prisons are drawing sharp criticism. In April 2025, HM Inspectorate of Prisons for Scotland described Glasgow’s Victorian-era Barlinnie Prison as being in a “wretchedly poor state,” with the facility operating 30% above capacity. Inspectors noted that almost two-thirds of prisoners were sharing cells designed for one person, and reports of overflowing toilets and mold-covered walls have further underscored the dire situation.
To address these longstanding issues, the government has committed nearly £1 billion to construct the new HMP Glasgow, intended to replace Barlinnie. However, the project is not expected to be completed until 2028—years behind the original schedule—leaving prison staff and inmates to cope with overcrowding in the meantime.
Teresa Medhurst, chief executive of the Scottish Prison Service, praised the "skill, dedication and professionalism" of staff who have managed an “extremely complex and far too high population for almost two years.” But she didn’t mince words about the risks: “We have now reached a new record high—an unfortunate landmark which none of us wanted to see. The level of overcrowding in our establishments was already restricting our staff’s ability to build relationships, support rehabilitation, reduce reoffending and help to build safer communities across Scotland. Now it is reaching a level that raises very serious concerns around our ability to keep people safe and secure.”
While the government insists that public safety remains its “paramount concern,” opposition parties have seized on the crisis as evidence of deeper failings in the justice system. Scottish Conservative justice spokesman Liam Kerr was blunt in his assessment: “It will surprise no-one that Scotland’s jail population has hit record highs, given the SNP’s abject failures over almost two decades in charge of the justice system. As well as failing to come up with a long-term strategy to tackle offending, the nationalists are years late in delivering the new prisons promised in Glasgow and the Highlands. Their only ‘solution’ to overcrowding is the reckless early release of dangerous criminals, which has made our streets less safe and seen many of the same offenders washing straight back up in jail after reoffending.”
Scottish Labour’s justice spokeswoman Pauline McNeill echoed the concerns, describing the situation as “intolerable for prison officers and staff trying to manage our prisons in extreme overcrowding conditions.” She added: “The SNP continues to preside over appalling conditions in our prisons. These unprecedented figures show the SNP’s sticking-plaster solutions have failed to deal with the dangerous levels of overcrowding in Scotland’s prisons. It is utterly neglectful that the SNP failed to plan for changes to the prison population during their time in government. Scotland’s prisons are at breaking point on the SNP’s watch.”
But the crisis doesn’t end at the prison gates. Police Scotland has also revealed that, as of September 2025, there were 10,064 outstanding arrest warrants across the country—among them, seven for murder, five for attempted murder, and 40 for rape. The backlog also includes 605 warrants related to drug supply or possession, 72 for domestic abuse, and 1,253 for assault. These figures, published by Police Scotland, have raised alarms about the ability of law enforcement to bring suspects to justice and keep dangerous individuals off the streets.
Scottish Labour has linked this backlog to a decline in police numbers, which have fallen from just over 17,400 full-time equivalent officers in 2020 to 16,427 in 2025. McNeill warned: “It is deeply concerning that more than 10,000 arrest warrants remain outstanding, including for some of the most serious offences including murder and rape. Not maintaining police numbers results in failures like this. Officers are already under intense demands with an increasing workload, with this backlog heaping further pressure on an already overstretched service. The SNP have failed Scotland’s communities and police officers by allowing Police Scotland to shrink when the force is already at breaking point.”
Police Scotland, for its part, emphasized that all arrest warrants are prioritized according to threat, risk, and harm. A spokesperson said: “We deploy local and national specialist resources and intelligence techniques to locate those who pose the greatest risk of harm and threat to communities and apprehend them. Some individuals will have committed multiple offences, and have more than one arrest warrant issued against them by the courts. Those facing arrest should be aware we’ll follow all lines of inquiry and use all resources to locate them as soon as possible.”
The Scottish Government responded by highlighting a record £1.64 billion investment in policing for 2025-26, and noted that Scotland continues to have more police officers per capita than England and Wales. A spokesperson said: “Execution of warrants is a matter for Police Scotland, who remain focused on the investigation of crime and keeping our communities safe. Our police perform a vital role keeping Scotland’s communities safe, which is why we have invested a record £1.64 billion for policing in 2025-26. Scotland continues to be a safe place to live, with recorded crime falling by more than half since 1991.”
As Scotland’s justice system grapples with record prison numbers, overcrowded facilities, and an unprecedented backlog of unexecuted warrants, the debate over how to fix these problems is far from settled. The coming months will test whether new measures—such as further early releases and investments in police and prison infrastructure—can stem the tide, or if deeper reforms are needed to restore order and public trust.
