Scotland has marked a somber milestone in its demographic history: the nation’s birth rate has fallen to its lowest point since records began in 1855. According to the National Records of Scotland (NRS), just 45,763 live births were registered in 2024—a decline of 172 from the previous year. This figure, released on August 26, 2025, underscores a long-term trend of declining births and shifting population dynamics that officials and experts warn could have profound implications for the country’s future.
The total fertility rate, which represents the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime, dropped to 1.25 in 2024, down from 1.27 the previous year. To put that in perspective, a fertility rate of around 2.1 is needed for a population to replace itself without relying on migration. Scotland’s rate now sits far below that threshold, raising concerns about the nation’s ability to sustain its population in the long run.
Phillipa Haxton, head of vital events statistics for the NRS, summed up the gravity of the situation: “The annual figures for 2024 show a year of record lows. Births, fertility, stillbirth and age-standardised mortality rates are all at their lowest levels since our records began. These figures reflect long-term changes in our population.” Haxton also noted that Scotland has experienced more deaths than births for over a decade, with the gap generally widening each year—though 2024 saw a slight narrowing due to a static birth rate and fewer deaths.
Indeed, the country registered 62,291 deaths last year, a 2% decrease from 2023, but still resulting in 16,528 more deaths than births. The last time Scotland saw more births than deaths was back in 2014, and projections indicate this gap will only grow wider, potentially reaching 27,400 by 2047.
The NRS report offers a detailed look at how motherhood and family structures are evolving across Scotland. In the 1960s, most births were to women in their 20s, but since 2010, the majority of babies have been born to mothers aged 30 to 34. In 2024, more than a third—35.7%—of births were to women in this age group. Additionally, more than half (51.7%) of babies were born to unmarried parents, reflecting broader social changes in the country.
Regional differences in fertility rates are also stark. The lowest rates in 2024 were found in Scotland’s largest cities: the City of Edinburgh reported a total fertility rate of just 0.99, followed by Glasgow City at 1.05 and Aberdeen City at 1.06. In contrast, areas like Midlothian (1.66), East Renfrewshire (1.56), and Na h-Eileanan Siar (1.51) recorded the highest fertility rates in the country.
Other indicators showed some positive trends. The stillbirth rate in 2024 was 3.5 for every thousand live and still births, tying the lowest rate ever recorded. The infant death rate also fell to 3.5 per thousand live births, down from 4.0 in 2023. Adoption numbers, however, remained steady at 369—unchanged from the previous year but continuing a longer-term decline.
While the drop in births paints a worrying picture, there are some countervailing trends. Marriages in Scotland increased in 2024, with 26,955 couples tying the knot—202 more than in 2023. Civil partnerships also saw a modest rise, with 796 couples entering into such arrangements. These figures suggest that while fewer children are being born, other aspects of family life remain vibrant.
Perhaps most crucially, Scotland’s overall population is still projected to grow in the coming years, but not because of natural increase. The NRS projects that, despite the widening gap between births and deaths, the country’s population will rise from 5.4 million in 2022 to 5.7 million by 2032. The reason? Positive net migration. As the NRS report explains, “Positive net migration is projected to offset negative natural change over this period. In recent years, both international and rest of the UK net migration have added to the population with more people coming to Scotland than leaving each year. This trend is projected to continue.”
These demographic shifts have not gone unnoticed in political circles. In June 2025, Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) debated the nation’s immigration system, with several lawmakers highlighting the challenges posed by an aging population and declining birth rate. Christine Grahame of the Scottish National Party (SNP) warned, “Scotland has an increasingly ageing population ... In addition, the birth rate is falling. The ramifications are that we are short of people in necessary workforces, particularly in our health and care services, and that the tax take is reducing, which impacts on the delivery of public services, not simply through the workforce but in terms of revenue and funding.”
Her concerns were echoed by Karen Adam, MSP for Banffshire and Buchan Coast, who critiqued calls for tighter migration controls: “We are constantly told that migration should be controlled, but what is being proposed is not control; it is restriction for the sake of restriction. It ignores Scotland’s demographic reality. Our working-age population is shrinking, our birth rate is falling and our population is ageing. National Records of Scotland and the Fraser of Allander Institute have both been crystal clear in saying that inward migration is essential if we are to sustain our economy and our public services.”
It’s not just politicians who are sounding the alarm. Economists and demographers have long warned that a shrinking and aging population could lead to workforce shortages, reduced tax revenues, and increased pressure on public services. The health and care sectors are particularly vulnerable, as they rely heavily on younger workers to support an expanding elderly population. At the same time, a lower birth rate can mean fewer children in schools, leading to potential closures or consolidations and a ripple effect across communities.
Despite these challenges, there are glimmers of hope. The decline in infant and stillbirth mortality rates points to improvements in maternal and child health. The steady number of adoptions, though lower than in previous decades, suggests that some children are still finding permanent homes. And, crucially, Scotland’s openness to migration may offer a lifeline, bolstering the working-age population and helping to sustain economic growth.
Still, the data leave little room for complacency. As Scotland grapples with record-low birth rates and an aging populace, policymakers face tough choices about how to adapt. Will increased migration be enough to offset the demographic headwinds? Can public services adjust to a new normal where births are outpaced by deaths year after year? The answers remain to be seen, but one thing is clear: the story of Scotland’s population is entering a new and uncertain chapter.
