In a move shaking the very foundations of Middle Eastern geopolitics, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) on September 17, 2025, during the visit of Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir to Riyadh. The pact, described by both governments as a landmark in bilateral relations, comes at a time of heightened uncertainty in the region, with the aftershocks already rippling through capitals from New Delhi to Washington.
The core of the agreement is as direct as it is forceful: any act of aggression against either country will be considered an act of aggression against both. This language, reminiscent of NATO’s famed Article 5, signals a new era of collective security for the Gulf and South Asia. Yet, the specifics remain cloaked in secrecy. According to a joint statement released after the signing, “the agreement states that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.” When pressed by Reuters about whether the pact extended Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella to the Kingdom, a senior Saudi official replied that the agreement “encompasses all military means.”
This ambiguity is no accident. As reported by multiple sources, including The Indian Express and Al Jazeera, the intentionally broad wording is designed to keep adversaries guessing. While Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif was quick to downplay any nuclear dimension—asserting that nuclear weapons “were not even on the radar”—the Saudi official’s comments left the door wide open, fueling speculation and strategic anxiety across the region.
The timing of the SMDA is hardly coincidental. Just eight days prior, Israel launched unprecedented airstrikes in Doha, targeting Hamas leaders during ceasefire negotiations. According to Al Jazeera, this brazen move shattered the long-held assumption that Gulf capitals were immune from such escalations, prompting Riyadh to seek a robust and independent deterrent. But this was only one catalyst. As trust in the United States as a reliable security guarantor eroded—thanks to events like the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and wavering support for Gulf partners—Saudi Arabia began looking elsewhere for strategic insurance.
For Saudi Arabia, the pact is a bold step toward strategic autonomy. It brings together the Kingdom’s immense economic resources and Pakistan’s formidable, battle-hardened military—the largest in the Islamic world. Since 2015, former Pakistani Army Chief Gen Raheel Sharif has commanded the Saudi-led Islamic Military Counter-Terrorism Coalition, and by 2018, Pakistan had stationed troops in Saudi Arabia to assist in the Yemen conflict. At present, an estimated 1,200 to 2,000 Pakistani troops remain on Saudi soil, a testament to the depth of this military partnership.
But the benefits for Riyadh go beyond muscle. By forging a formal alliance with Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state, Saudi Arabia gains what analysts are calling a "nuclear shadow"—a psychological deterrent aimed squarely at regional adversaries, especially Israel and Iran. This calculated ambiguity, as noted by The Indian Express, forces opponents to think twice before escalating conflicts, giving Saudi Arabia a stronger hand in both regional diplomacy and its dealings with Washington.
For Pakistan, the motivations are equally clear, if not more pragmatic. The SMDA provides Islamabad with an economic lifeline at a time of ongoing fiscal crisis. Saudi Arabia is extending a $3 billion loan and boosting investments in Pakistan—financial support that is crucial for the country’s stability. Strategically, the pact elevates Pakistan’s status as a regional security provider, allowing it to project power beyond South Asia and cement its role as a key player in the wider Islamic world. It also offers Islamabad potential diplomatic backing from Riyadh in future confrontations with India, though the extent of such support remains to be tested.
This new arrangement, however, is not without its critics and skeptics. India, for one, has taken careful note of the agreement. According to The Indian Express, New Delhi acknowledged the SMDA as a formalization of a long-standing relationship between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, but concerns persist. India’s own defense ties with Saudi Arabia, while growing, remain in their infancy compared to Pakistan’s historic partnership. In August 2025, the seventh meeting of the India-Saudi Arabia Joint Committee on Defence Cooperation took place, with India offering to provide training to Saudi forces. Additionally, a Ministerial Committee on Defence Cooperation was established in April 2025, and both sides have engaged in joint military exercises. Yet, the depth and immediacy of the Saudi-Pakistan alliance casts a long shadow over these efforts.
The impact of the SMDA on the broader region is profound. For Israel, the pact is a strategic setback. Its military calculus, long predicated on regional superiority, now must account for the possibility—however remote—of Pakistani involvement in a future conflict, including the specter of nuclear escalation. For Iran, the situation is more nuanced. While the agreement strengthens its Sunni rival, it also complicates any potential Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, as such an action could now trigger a broader conflict involving Pakistan.
Even the United States finds itself sidelined. As Al Jazeera points out, the pact represents a clear move away from reliance on American security guarantees, signaling the emergence of a more multipolar Middle East. Washington, once the undisputed arbiter of regional security, must now contend with autonomous alliances that operate outside its direct influence.
Yet, for all its headline-grabbing potential, the real power of the SMDA may lie in its ambiguity. As Bashir Ali Abbas, Senior Research Associate at the Council for Strategic and Defense Research in New Delhi, observed, “the main test for the SMDA is the degree to which it influences Saudi/Arab behaviour towards India-Pakistan crises.” So far, Saudi Arabia has managed a delicate balancing act—condemning terrorist attacks in India while refraining from criticizing Indian military operations that Pakistan opposes. This pragmatism has contributed to the growth of Indo-Saudi ties and suggests that, at least for now, the SMDA is more about signaling than substantive change on the ground.
Still, the psychological impact is undeniable. By introducing calculated uncertainty into the region’s security architecture, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have fundamentally altered how power is projected in the 21st century. Every potential aggressor—be it Israel, Iran, or even the United States—must now weigh the risks of provoking a response from an alliance whose red lines remain deliberately blurred. In a world where perception can be as powerful as reality, the SMDA stands as a testament to the strategic power of ambiguity.
As the dust settles, one thing is clear: the Middle East is entering a new and unpredictable phase, with Riyadh and Islamabad holding more cards than ever before. Whether this will lead to greater stability or heightened tension remains to be seen, but the rules of the game have undoubtedly changed.
