Salesforce Shares Tumble Despite Strong Analyst Support

Salesforce, Inc., the San Francisco-based titan of cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) technology, has been on a wild ride over the past year. Once the darling of tech investors, Salesforce now finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with a dramatic stock slump even as its core business and artificial intelligence (AI) offerings show signs of resilience and growth. For a company with nearly $198.9 billion in market capitalization, this moment is as much about perception as performance.

To understand Salesforce’s current state, one must start with the numbers. Over the past twelve months, Salesforce stock has tumbled by nearly 38.3%, starkly underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which surged 15.5% in the same period, according to Barchart. The pain continued into early 2026, with Salesforce’s shares dropping another 20.4% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 managed a modest 1.9% gain. In sharp contrast, the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) soared 25.9% over the past year and remains slightly positive for the year. Clearly, Salesforce’s struggles are not simply a reflection of the broader market.

So, what’s behind this underperformance? Analysts and investors alike have pointed to concerns that AI—ironically, a technology Salesforce has championed—could disrupt or even cannibalize parts of its traditional product suite. Instead of enhancing its offerings, some fear AI could make them obsolete. Yet, that’s not the whole story. Salesforce’s Agentforce suite, a set of customizable AI-driven tools, and its Data 360 platform have both been highlighted as major revenue drivers, together generating close to $1.4 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2025. The company’s flagship Customer 360 platform continues to unify customer data across systems, apps, and devices, helping businesses streamline everything from sales to marketing to customer support.

Recent financial results suggest that Salesforce’s AI-powered transformation is more than just talk. On December 3, 2025, the company’s stock nudged up 1.7%, followed by a more robust 3.7% gain the next day after Salesforce announced its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results. Revenue for the quarter climbed 8.6% year-over-year to $10.26 billion, just a hair below the $10.27 billion consensus estimate. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) jumped an impressive 34.9% to $3.25, easily topping analysts’ expectations of $2.86. These numbers, reported by Barchart and GuruFocus, were enough to prompt management to raise its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to between $41.45 billion and $41.55 billion, a clear signal of confidence in the company’s ongoing demand and the growing impact of its AI initiatives.

For the fiscal year ending January 2026, consensus among analysts is that Salesforce will deliver diluted EPS of $8.92, a 13.1% increase from the previous year. Even more telling, Salesforce has beaten EPS expectations in each of the last four quarters, underscoring its ability to execute consistently despite market volatility and skepticism.

Wall Street’s view of Salesforce remains broadly positive, though not without some caution. As of February 3, 2026, the consensus rating is a robust “Strong Buy,” with 36 of 51 analysts recommending the stock as such. Only one analyst has issued a “Strong Sell.” This upbeat sentiment marks an improvement from three months earlier, when 35 analysts rated Salesforce a “Strong Buy.”

Yet, the optimism is tempered by some recalibration of expectations. On February 3, 2026, Piper Sandler analyst Brent Bracelin maintained his “Overweight” rating on Salesforce but lowered his price target from $315 to $280, reflecting what he described as an 11.11% decrease. Bracelin’s move comes on the heels of a series of analyst updates: On January 26, Evercore ISI’s Kirk Materne reaffirmed a “Buy” rating with a $340 price target, citing confidence in Salesforce’s operational progress and scalable product suite. The very next day, Citizens analyst Patrick Walravens maintained a “Market Outperform” rating with a $405 price target, highlighting the Agentforce platform’s strong execution.

Other notable ratings include Barclays, which on January 12, 2026, raised its price target from $330 to $338; RBC Capital, which bumped its target from $250 to $290 on January 5; BTIG, which initiated coverage with a “Buy” and a $335 target in December; and Morgan Stanley, which maintained an “Overweight” rating but trimmed its target from $405 to $398 on December 9. Even Citigroup, typically more reserved, raised its target from $253 to $257 in early December 2025.

According to GuruFocus, the average price target among 48 analysts is $323.58, with a high estimate of $475 and a low of $223. At the current price of $210.81, this implies a potential upside of 53.5%. GuruFocus also estimates Salesforce’s fair value (GF Value) at $332.62 in one year, suggesting a 57.78% upside. The consensus brokerage recommendation, based on 53 firms, is 2.0 on a scale where 1 signifies “Strong Buy” and 5 denotes “Sell”—a clear “Outperform” status.

Salesforce’s suite of products remains a cornerstone for enterprises seeking to unify their data and customer interactions. Beyond its Customer 360 platform, Salesforce offers Service Cloud for customer support, Marketing Cloud for digital campaigns, Commerce Cloud as an e-commerce engine, and the Salesforce Platform for application development. Notably, MuleSoft, a data integration solution, continues to complement the company’s broader ecosystem.

Despite the turbulence in its share price, Salesforce’s operational performance has not gone unnoticed. As Evercore ISI’s Kirk Materne put it, “We remain confident in Salesforce’s operational progress and scalable product suite.” Patrick Walravens of Citizens echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that “the Agentforce platform’s strong execution is a key driver.” These endorsements reflect a belief that Salesforce’s investments in AI and cloud-based solutions are beginning to pay dividends, even if the market has yet to fully appreciate them.

For investors, the question is whether Salesforce can sustain its momentum and reassure those who worry about AI’s disruptive potential. The company’s raised guidance, steady earnings beats, and robust analyst support suggest that many on Wall Street see brighter days ahead. Still, with a stock that’s lagged so dramatically behind both the market and its technology peers, Salesforce will need to deliver not just strong numbers but also a compelling narrative about its future in a rapidly evolving tech landscape.

As the dust settles on a turbulent year, Salesforce stands as a case study in how even market leaders must adapt—or risk being left behind. The coming months will test whether its AI-driven transformation can turn investor skepticism into renewed enthusiasm.