Sabalenka And Rybakina Locked In Epic Australian Open Final

The 2026 Australian Open women’s singles final is living up to the hype as World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and No. 5 Elena Rybakina battle for supremacy on the hard courts of Rod Laver Arena. Set against the electric backdrop of a packed Melbourne Park, these two first-strike powerhouses have delivered a contest brimming with tension, athleticism, and high-stakes drama, just as fans and pundits predicted.

Sabalenka, the top seed, entered this year’s tournament as the clear betting favorite, riding a wave of form that saw her claim both the 2024 and 2025 US Open titles and back-to-back Australian Open crowns in 2023 and 2024. Her quest for a third Melbourne title in four years marks her fourth consecutive final at this event—a feat achieved by only a select few in the Open Era. Standing in her way is Rybakina, the 2022 Wimbledon champion and a player in red-hot form, who’s seeking to add a second Grand Slam trophy to her collection after falling to Sabalenka in the 2023 Australian Open final.

Neither player dropped a set en route to this championship clash, and the oddsmakers reflected the razor-thin gap between them. Pre-match lines pegged Sabalenka as a slight favorite, with odds hovering around -163 to -170, while Rybakina was a tempting underdog at +135 to +140. Analysts and experts across the tennis world debated the matchup’s key: Would Sabalenka’s relentless aggression and improved mental fortitude hold up under the immense pressure, or would Rybakina’s cool head and devastating serve tip the scales?

As the match got underway, the tension was palpable. The stadium’s roof was closed due to rain, but inside, the atmosphere was electric. Both players were locked in from the opening points, trading blows with blistering groundstrokes and thundering serves. Rybakina struck first, breaking Sabalenka’s serve in the opening game and consolidating her advantage with unflappable poise. Her backhand, in particular, was a weapon, helping her race out to a 3-1 lead as Sabalenka struggled to find her range.

Sabalenka, known for her fiery temperament, regrouped quickly. She began to dictate play with her signature power, holding serve with a series of aces and forcing Rybakina to dig deep in her own service games. The first set, however, belonged to Rybakina. With the score at 4-5 and Sabalenka serving to stay in the set, a couple of untimely errors gave Rybakina the opening she needed. She pounced, sealing the first set 6-4 and putting the pressure squarely on the world No. 1.

It’s worth noting that Rybakina has made a habit of closing out matches after taking the first set—she’s won her last 24 matches in such scenarios. As BBC Sport’s tennis reporter in Melbourne observed, “So far, after serving out the opening set without drama and seeing off five break points, she is passing with flying colours.” The Kazakhstani star has also been a giant-killer in recent months, claiming victories in her last nine meetings with top-10 opponents, including a statement win over Sabalenka at the 2025 WTA Finals.

The second set saw Sabalenka raise her level, determined not to let history repeat itself after last year’s heartbreaking final loss to Madison Keys. The games were fiercely contested, with both players trading holds and neither able to secure a decisive break. Sabalenka’s serve, clocking in at over 180 km/h, kept her in touch, while Rybakina’s composure under pressure was nothing short of remarkable. At 4-3 in the second set, Sabalenka found herself within two games of leveling the match, but Rybakina refused to back down, holding serve with a mix of precision and grit.

Expert analysts, such as Jose Onorato of SportsLine, emphasized the importance of Sabalenka’s ability to “absorb pace and still dictate rallies.” He noted, “Sabalenka has been flawless in Melbourne, not dropping a set and overpowering everyone in her path, including a routine win over Svitolina in the semifinals.” Onorato also acknowledged Rybakina’s sharpness, having dispatched top seeds Swiatek and Pegula in straight sets with her elite serve and first-strike aggression. “She owns a slight edge in their hard-court meetings and beat Sabalenka at the 2025 WTA Finals, so this is anything but one-sided,” he added.

For fans and bettors alike, the match has been a rollercoaster. Pre-match predictions leaned slightly toward Sabalenka, with many expecting a straight-sets finish given both players’ dominance throughout the tournament. The over/under for total games was set at 22.5, with the under favored—reflecting the expectation that whoever landed the first punch would likely run away with the match. Yet, as the action unfolded, it became clear that neither woman was willing to cede an inch, and every game was a battle.

Live updates from The Sporting News captured the ebb and flow of the contest: “Crowd getting into it now. Rybakina so close to forcing 30-30 at the net, but a ridiculous point saw Sabalenka just have the touch to put it past her opponent.” The report also highlighted the seesawing nature of the second set, with multiple deuce games and both players saving break points with clutch serving. “A seesawing game, could it be one Sabalenka lives to regret?” the commentary wondered aloud, encapsulating the knife-edge tension on court.

Historical context adds further intrigue to this burgeoning rivalry. Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 8-6, including her victory in the 2023 Australian Open final, but Rybakina has twice defeated the world No. 1 on hard courts in straight sets during the 2025 season. Both women are writing their own chapters in tennis history—Sabalenka aiming to become just the eighth woman to win three Australian Open titles, and Rybakina chasing her third Grand Slam final appearance and a second major crown.

As the match continues, with Rybakina having taken the first set and Sabalenka battling to stay alive in the second, the outcome remains very much in doubt. The margins are as thin as predicted, with each point carrying the weight of history and legacy. Will Sabalenka’s experience and power see her through, or will Rybakina’s nerves of steel and recent head-to-head success prove decisive?

One thing is certain: tennis fans are witnessing a classic in Melbourne, a fitting finale to the first Grand Slam of 2026. With every serve, rally, and break point, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina are pushing each other—and the sport—to new heights. Whatever the result, this duel will be remembered as another thrilling chapter in the ongoing saga of women’s tennis at the Australian Open.