In a development that has sent ripples through the international security community, newly leaked documents reveal a deepening military partnership between Russia and China, with Moscow actively aiding Beijing’s preparations for a potential attack on Taiwan. The cache of more than 800 pages, independently verified by the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and reviewed by outlets including The Washington Post and UPI, outlines a sweeping agreement for Russia to supply advanced military equipment, technical expertise, and combat training to Chinese airborne forces. The details, emerging just days ago, paint a vivid picture of two authoritarian powers aligning their military might in ways that could reshape the balance of power across East Asia.
According to the documents, Russia agreed in October 2024 to sell China a substantial arsenal: 37 BMD-4M light amphibious vehicles, 11 Sprut-SDM1 self-propelled anti-tank guns, and 11 BTR-MDM airborne armored personnel carriers. The package, provisionally valued at $584 million, also includes command and observation vehicles and specialized parachute systems designed for the high-altitude airdrop of heavy loads. The deal is not limited to hardware; it encompasses the transfer of know-how, with Russian military instructors set to train an entire Chinese airborne battalion both in Russia and later on Chinese soil. As The Washington Post notes, this training will cover the operation of the vehicles, airborne tactics, and the integration of Russian-style command-and-control systems.
The revelations come at a time of escalating tension in the Taiwan Strait. China, which considers Taiwan a breakaway province, has ramped up military pressure on the island, while Taiwan—backed by the United States—insists on its sovereignty and continues to bolster its own defenses. The newly uncovered Russia-China deal, analysts say, could tip the scales in Beijing’s favor if a conflict were to erupt. “It is a very good example of how the Russians have become an enabler for the Chinese,” Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at RUSI, told The Washington Post. Watling added that Russia could serve as “strategic backup for China” in a Taiwan contingency, providing not just weapons but also oil, gas, and other critical resources.
The documents also shed light on the practicalities of the collaboration. In April 2024, Chinese negotiators met with their Russian counterparts in Beijing to request the acceleration of vehicle deliveries, the provision of full technical documentation, and the adaptation of weapons systems for compatibility with Chinese software, radio, and navigation systems. Russian customs records from June 2024, cited by The Insider, confirm shipments of "military purpose products" to the state-owned China Electronics Technology Group. The agreement even includes the establishment of a Russian-run repair and maintenance hub in China, ensuring the longevity and readiness of the delivered equipment.
For China, the stakes are high. President Xi Jinping has reportedly directed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to seize Taiwan by 2027. Yet, as RUSI’s analysis points out, a large-scale amphibious assault on the island is fraught with risk—only a handful of beaches are suitable for landing craft, and runways can be quickly cratered to deny airborne landings. By acquiring Russian expertise in airdropping armored vehicles and training troops for large-scale airborne operations, China hopes to diversify its invasion options, increasing the likelihood of overwhelming Taiwan’s defenses at multiple points.
“Previously, China’s lack of ability to deliver troops in large numbers and maintain logistical support were considered weaknesses,” Su Tzu-yun, a defense analyst at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told The Washington Post. “If Russia is providing technical support, that will be a bigger challenge.” The RUSI assessment echoes this, stating the transfers will give the PLA Air Force "expanded air maneuver capability," offering "offensive options against Taiwan, the Philippines, and other island states in the region." The think tank also warns that Russia is transferring technologies that could allow China to scale up its own production of similar weapons in the future.
The growing Russia-China military axis extends well beyond the Taiwan scenario. In 2024 alone, the two countries held 14 joint military exercises—double the number conducted in the previous decade, according to The Washington Post. Last week, representatives of the Chinese armed forces attended the Russian-Belarusian “Zapad-2025” war games, where Russia showcased high-altitude airdrops of heavy equipment, a tactic China is eager to replicate. The two nations’ leaders, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, have also attended each other’s military parades in the past year, underlining the political symbolism of their partnership.
The source of the leaked documents is the hacktivist group Black Moon, which claims to have accessed internal Russian files detailing the arms deal and associated training programs. RUSI’s careful analysis suggests the documents are authentic, though it cautions that some portions could have been altered or omitted. Still, the overall picture is clear: military cooperation between China and Russia goes far beyond what has been publicly acknowledged. A Taiwanese security official, speaking to The Washington Post, warned, “Military cooperation between China and Russia goes far beyond what has been publicly acknowledged.”
For Taiwan, the threat is not theoretical. In July 2025, the island’s military rehearsed shooting down a simulated Chinese airborne attack on Taoyuan International Airport, a site Chinese strategists have identified as pivotal for breaching Taiwan’s defenses. The United States, Taiwan’s principal security partner, has repeatedly urged Beijing to refrain from the use of force and has pledged to help the island defend itself, though it has stopped short of a formal security guarantee.
Meanwhile, Russia’s own motivations are the subject of intense debate among analysts. With its defense industry under strain from Western sanctions and the ongoing war in Ukraine, Moscow is eager to cultivate lucrative arms deals and strategic alliances. The prospect of becoming China’s “strategic reserve”—supplying not just weapons but also energy and raw materials in a future conflict—offers Russia both economic benefits and geopolitical leverage.
China, for its part, is seeking to overcome a core shortfall: the lack of combat-tested airborne operations at scale. As Joshua Arostegui of the US Army War College observed in The Washington Post, “China expects to fight in a degraded environment where their systems will be under threat from jamming and cyberattack.” Russian training on proven command systems could be worth every penny of the millions China is spending.
As the world watches, the Russia-China partnership is rapidly evolving from a marriage of convenience into a formidable military alliance. The implications for Taiwan—and for the broader Indo-Pacific region—are profound. Whether this collaboration will deter conflict or make it more likely remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the strategic landscape of East Asia is changing, and the stakes have never been higher.
