North Carolina’s Senate race is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched political contests of 2025, as two well-known figures—Democratic Governor Roy Cooper and Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley—vie for the seat soon to be vacated by Senator Thom Tillis. With the state’s political landscape in flux and national eyes focused on the outcome, the battle between Cooper and Whatley is already marked by sharp contrasts, polling intrigue, and deep debates over the direction of public policy.
According to a recent Emerson College poll cited by Modern Newsstand LLC, Cooper currently holds a six-point lead over Whatley, with 47% of likely voters supporting the governor compared to Whatley’s 41%. The poll, conducted as of August 10, 2025, underscores Cooper’s advantage in name recognition—an asset built over a decades-long career in North Carolina politics, including four terms as attorney general and two as governor. In contrast, Whatley, a first-time candidate on the ballot, faces the challenge of introducing himself to a large swath of the electorate.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, explained the significance of Whatley’s relatively low profile: “With over a year to go until the North Carolina U.S. Senate race, Whatley’s low name recognition presents both a challenge and an opportunity, while only 17% view him favorably, nearly two-thirds of voters either don’t know him or are unsure.” Kimball added, “That leaves room for his campaign to define him before his opponent does.”
Cooper’s familiarity with voters is hard to overstate. The poll found that 84% of North Carolinians know who he is, and among independent voters—a key swing bloc—he enjoys a commanding 19-point lead. This advantage, however, does not guarantee a smooth path to Washington. As John Hood, a columnist for the John Locke Foundation, pointed out in an August 9 opinion piece, Cooper’s victories have all come in state-level races. “These were state races, not federal ones. When sending senators or representatives to Washington, voters prioritize different issues and are more likely to stick with their party preferences,” Hood wrote.
Whatley, for his part, is not without powerful backers. Despite his relative anonymity among the general public, he has secured endorsements from former President Donald Trump and Senate Majority Leader John Thune. These endorsements have helped energize Republican activists and donors, though, according to the Emerson poll, Whatley has not yet gained significant momentum with the broader donor community or undecided voters.
The stakes of the race are heightened by Senator Tillis’s decision not to seek reelection, a move that has opened the field and intensified the scramble for his seat. Democrats see North Carolina as a critical opportunity to gain ground in the Senate, especially with the generic congressional ballot virtually tied—41.5% of voters backing Democrats and 41.3% supporting Republicans, as reported by Modern Newsstand LLC. For Republicans, holding onto the seat is essential to maintaining their influence in Washington.
Beneath the surface of polling numbers and political endorsements, the race is also a referendum on the broader policy directions of both parties. Hood’s analysis highlights what he sees as a long-term policy problem for progressive Democrats, particularly on economic, educational, and social issues. “On at least three sets of issues of great importance to persuadable voters—economic, educational, and social—progressives have yanked the party far away from reality and common sense,” Hood asserted in his column.
He points to economic trends since 2020, noting that eight of the ten fastest-growing state economies, including North Carolina, have Republican-controlled legislatures. Only Washington, among the top ten, has a Democratic legislature. Hood argues that conservative fiscal policies—such as cutting taxes and regulations, restraining public spending, and introducing market mechanisms—have yielded stronger economic growth and population gains in these states. In contrast, progressively governed states have generally seen slower growth and even population declines.
On education, the debate centers on school choice. Hood criticizes progressive Democrats for resisting parental choice and competition in public education, arguing that states embracing these reforms—like Florida, Indiana, and Louisiana—have seen improved educational outcomes. Citing several studies, he claims, “States with more school competition tend to post higher test scores and other educational outcomes, not lower ones.”
The third major policy battleground is affirmative action. Hood contends that Democratic support for affirmative action in college admissions and employment has proven both politically costly and legally questionable. “Such abuses of the concept of ‘affirmative action’ were never popular—and in the case of hiring practices, were never even arguably legal,” he wrote. The implication is that Democrats have paid a political price for defending policies that many voters see as out of step with contemporary views on fairness and equal protection.
Yet, the story is not one of simple partisan lines. Hood acknowledges that some Democratic governors, like Jared Polis in Colorado and Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, have adapted their stances to embrace certain tax cuts, deregulation, and school choice initiatives—moves that have benefited them politically and, arguably, their states. “Given more room to maneuver, Democratic politicians could have adjusted to these entirely predictable trends,” Hood observed. “Roy Cooper? Not so much.”
For Whatley, the challenge is to capitalize on these policy debates and define himself as a credible alternative to Cooper. As a first-time candidate, he must not only introduce himself to voters but also articulate a clear vision for North Carolina’s future. The endorsements from Trump and Thune provide a boost among the party faithful, but Whatley’s ability to connect with independents and moderates—many of whom currently favor Cooper—could determine the outcome.
Meanwhile, Cooper’s campaign is likely to emphasize his record of statewide leadership and his broad support among independents. But as Hood and others have noted, federal races bring different dynamics, and the issues that resonate in Raleigh may not play the same way in Washington.
With more than a year to go until Election Day, the North Carolina Senate race remains wide open. The polls may provide a snapshot, but as history shows, campaigns can shift rapidly as voters weigh the candidates’ records, policy positions, and personal stories. The outcome will not only shape North Carolina’s representation in the Senate but could also tip the balance of power in Washington for years to come.
The coming months promise fierce debates, shifting alliances, and plenty of surprises as Cooper and Whatley make their case to the people of North Carolina. For voters, the choice will be about more than personalities—it will be a decision about the state’s direction on the economy, education, and social policy at a pivotal moment in the nation’s political life.
