On November 1, 2025, the Netherlands found itself at the center of European political attention as Rob Jetten, the 38-year-old leader of the centrist D66 party, claimed victory in a fiercely contested national election. The result, which saw Jetten edge out far-right rival Geert Wilders by a razor-thin margin, is being hailed as a pivotal moment not only for Dutch politics but also for the broader European debate over populism, security, and the future of the continent’s alliances.
According to Dutch press agency ANP, which collates and distributes the official vote tally, Jetten’s D66 emerged as the largest party in the parliamentary elections, holding a lead of just over 14,000 votes against Wilders’ PVV Freedom Party. Both parties are projected to secure about 26 seats each in the 150-member parliament, but the final composition hinges on the counting of overseas postal ballots—a process historically favoring centrist and left-leaning parties. The Electoral Council is expected to confirm the final results by November 7, 2025.
Jetten’s projected win is historic on multiple fronts. If confirmed, he will become the youngest and first openly gay prime minister of the Netherlands, the European Union’s fifth-largest economy. “I am incredibly happy... At the same time, I feel a great responsibility,” Jetten told reporters after his apparent victory, as reported by AFP. He attributed his success to a campaign focused on optimism and cooperation, telling AFP, “I think we’ve now shown to the rest of Europe and the world that it is possible to beat the populist movements if you campaign with a positive message for your country.”
Yet, the path to forming a stable government is anything but straightforward. In the fragmented Dutch political landscape, a majority coalition of at least 76 seats is required to govern. Jetten’s most plausible route involves a so-called “grand coalition” with the center-right CDA (18 seats), the liberal VVD (22 seats), and the left-wing Green/Labour group (20 seats). However, pre-election statements from VVD leader Dilan Yesilgoz cast doubt on the feasibility of such an alliance, given her reluctance to partner with the Green/Labour group. The latter is set to elect a new leader after the departure of Frans Timmermans, potentially opening the door to renewed negotiations.
Wilders, for his part, has not conceded. He criticized Jetten’s early declaration of victory as premature and “arrogant,” insisting, “It’s the Electoral Council that decides, not the ANP. What arrogance not to wait for that. But even if D66 becomes the largest party, the PVV will not let the Netherlands be destroyed by Jetten and his ilk, and from day one we will, with full force and 26 seats strong, oppose his left-liberal mismanagement!” Wilders’ PVV saw a collapse in support compared to previous cycles, but other far-right parties made gains: Forum for Democracy surged from three to seven seats, and JA21 leaped from one to nine seats. Notably, Wilders has ruled out working with Forum for Democracy, branding them too extreme.
The election’s outcome has rippled far beyond the Netherlands, intensifying debates over European security and the continent’s reliance on the United States. According to RFI, the finely balanced result has prompted urgent questions about European defense autonomy, particularly in the face of ongoing threats from Russia and China. Bart van den Berg, head of the security and defense program at the Clingendael Institute, told RFI, “Almost all Dutch parties agree on the severity of the Russian threat, and, increasingly, the risks stemming from China.” He added that mainstream parties remain committed to NATO and continued support for Ukraine, but the real debate now centers on how to reduce strategic dependency on the United States.
Europe’s military reliance on Washington has grown sharply, with U.S. Foreign Military Sales to Europe skyrocketing from an annual average of $11 billion between 2017 and 2021 to $68 billion in 2024. This surge is most evident in purchases of fighter aircraft, missile systems, and defense software. The Netherlands, with its Atlanticist tradition, has favored American military hardware—such as the F-35 fighter jet—over European alternatives like France’s Rafale. “The F-35 is a superior fighter to the Rafale. But in the long term, these dependencies—and how our forces manage them—will be crucial,” Van den Berg observed.
France, meanwhile, continues to champion European defense sovereignty and has pushed for a “European pillar within NATO” and even a European army. Yet, as Guntram Wolff of the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel points out, integration is hampered by Germany’s preference for the U.S. as its main military ally. “The European defense market remains fragmented, and consensus is difficult to achieve,” Van den Berg noted.
Jetten’s victory comes at a moment when Dutch and European policymakers are grappling with how to diversify alliances and invest in domestic defense industries. Van den Berg remarked, “Most Dutch parties support diversifying alliances—not only strengthening ties with the U.S. but also making new friends among middle powers like Brazil, India, and Indonesia. Reducing dependency means investing in domestic industries and forging European military innovation.”
The urgency of these debates has only grown in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a series of hybrid crises across Europe. Policymakers are now faced with tough choices: expand domestic defense production, integrate European markets, and modernize procurement systems, or risk remaining vulnerable to the unpredictability of transatlantic politics. “Europe now has advanced high-tech defense companies, some of which are becoming unicorns. What is needed is a coherent strategy to channel demand towards these firms, scale up production, and restore technological leadership in critical domains,” Wolff said.
Amid these weighty policy debates, the personal story of Rob Jetten has also captivated the Dutch public. Raised in the town of Uden by two teacher parents, Jetten studied public administration at Radboud University. He began his political career at the age of 30 and quickly rose to become the youngest ever leader of the D66 party. A former athlete, Jetten once served as a pacemaker for Olympic champion Sifan Hassan. As a child and teenager, he was passionate about football and athletics but struggled to find role models among top-level gay athletes. “But as I grew up and started discovering my identity, it was quite difficult not to identify with top-level gay athletes,” he told AFP. Jetten is engaged to Argentina’s international hockey player Nicolas Keenan, with plans to marry in Spain next year.
With the final votes still being counted and coalition negotiations looming, the Netherlands stands on the threshold of both political and strategic transformation. Jetten’s ascent signals a renewed commitment to centrist cooperation, optimism, and a European future that balances tradition with innovation. The coming weeks will reveal whether he can translate a historic victory into a stable government capable of steering the Netherlands—and perhaps Europe—through uncertain times.
