In a series of dramatic public statements over the past week, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has promised that the United States is on the verge of discovering the definitive causes of some forms of autism. According to Kennedy, the results of a government-led study on autism—initiated in April and spearheaded by his office—will be released in September 2025. He claims that these findings will not only pinpoint the interventions that "are clearly, almost certainly causing autism" but will also offer ways to address them. The announcement, made during a Cabinet meeting with President Donald Trump, has ignited fierce debate among scientists, advocates, and the broader public, with many questioning both the substance and the style of Kennedy’s claims.
President Trump, who called autism a "tremendous horror show" during the August 26 Cabinet meeting, expressed eager anticipation for the forthcoming results. “I'm looking forward to that day, because there's something wrong when you see the kind of numbers that you have today versus 20 years ago,” Trump remarked, referencing the sharp increase in autism diagnoses over recent decades. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 1 in 31 children in the U.S. were diagnosed with autism by age 8 in 2022, up from 1 in 36 just two years prior. The prevalence among boys is even higher, at 1 in 20, and the 2022 rate is five times what it was in 2000.
But what accounts for this surge in diagnoses? That’s a question with a complicated answer. The CDC and leading experts say much of the rise can be attributed to changes in diagnostic criteria, increased awareness, and the inclusion of individuals who might previously have been missed—such as those without intellectual disabilities or those from demographic groups historically less likely to be identified. As Zoe Gross, director of advocacy at the Autistic Self Advocacy Network, told The Hill in June, “Rates of autism without intellectual disability, that is increasing faster than diagnoses of autism with intellectual disability, which shows that if that group that would have been missed in the past that is making up the larger portion of the increase in diagnoses.”
Nevertheless, Kennedy has characterized the growing numbers as evidence of an “epidemic running rampant.” At the Cabinet meeting, he repeated his long-held assertion that environmental factors, or possibly vaccines, are likely culprits behind the rising rate of autism diagnoses—a claim he says has been blocked from thorough investigation by federal authorities. “We’re finding interventions, certain interventions now that are clearly almost certainly causing autism. And we’re going to be able to address those in September,” Kennedy said, according to USA TODAY. He added that the National Institutes of Health (NIH) would undertake a “series of new studies to identify precisely what the environmental toxins are that are causing it” and set a September deadline for results. “This is coming from an environmental toxin, and somebody made it and put that environmental toxin into our air or water or medicines or food,” he declared in April at the HHS headquarters in Washington.
Such statements have raised alarms among scientists and advocates. The NIH’s current stance, as summarized by ScienceBlogs, is that the exact causes of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) remain unknown and are likely multifactorial—a complex interplay of genetic and environmental factors. “Scientists don’t know exactly what causes autism spectrum disorder (ASD),” the NIH states. “Because the disorder is so complex and no two people with autism are exactly alike, there are probably many causes for autism.” The scientific consensus, reflected in numerous peer-reviewed studies and the positions of all major medical organizations, is that vaccines do not cause autism—a theory that has been repeatedly disproven over the past two decades.
Kennedy’s rhetoric has not only drawn criticism for its scientific content but also for its portrayal of autistic individuals. At the Cabinet meeting, he described autism as devastating for families and society, saying, “These are kids who will never pay taxes, they’ll never hold a job, they’ll never play baseball, they’ll never write a poem, they’ll never go out on a date. Many of them will never use a toilet unassisted. Autism destroys families.” Such statements, as highlighted in a recent analysis by Forbes, ignore the diversity of autistic experience and the many autistic people who live full, productive lives. In fact, the technology sector—contributing nearly 10% of U.S. GDP—is disproportionately staffed by autistic individuals who thrive as specialist thinkers and innovators. The same article notes that many autistic people work successfully, particularly when workplaces are accessible and inclusive, and that research into better working practices would be far more useful than efforts to “solve” autism.
Behind the scenes, Kennedy’s tenure at HHS and his approach to public health have been marked by controversy and upheaval. According to ScienceBlogs, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has experienced ongoing chaos, with the ousting of its leadership and multiple resignations among senior staff in late August 2025. The NIH, too, has come under fire for leadership decisions and canceled grants. Critics argue that Kennedy’s promises of imminent breakthroughs are being made in the absence of transparent scientific methods and peer-reviewed data.
Meanwhile, the broader conversation about autism is evolving. Many advocates and researchers argue that the focus should shift from seeking a “cure” or cause to improving quality of life, supporting families, and fostering societal inclusion. The neurodiversity movement, as Forbes points out, has helped move thinking about work and human value from industrial models to an appreciation of cognitive diversity and innovation. Calls to “solve” or prevent autism, critics warn, risk perpetuating stigma and dehumanizing those on the spectrum. “Cyclical calls to ‘solve’ them as a ‘problem’ is demeaning and dehumanizing,” the Forbes analysis contends.
That’s not to say research on health and wellbeing is unwelcome. In fact, autistic people are disproportionately vulnerable to chronic health conditions such as dysautonomia, gastric and allergy disorders, and may be more likely to experience long COVID. Large-scale studies on environmental influences, if conducted rigorously and without bias, could yield insights that benefit everyone. However, as the Forbes article warns, “We cannot design research with a sole objective to prove one thing. This is antithetical to science.”
As September approaches, all eyes will be on Kennedy and the promised announcement. Will the findings offer new, actionable insights grounded in robust science, or will they reignite old controversies and misinformation? The stakes are high—not just for scientific understanding, but for the millions of autistic people and their families whose lives are shaped by public policy and social attitudes. In the words of philosopher Karl Popper, “Whenever a theory appears to you as the only possible one, take this as a sign that you have neither understood the theory nor the problem which it was intended to solve.”
For now, the autism community and the scientific world wait, watchful and wary, hoping that the next chapter in this ongoing story will be one of clarity, compassion, and genuine progress.
