Republican voters’ confidence in the direction of the United States has plummeted following the killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, according to new polling data released this week. The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey, conducted days after Kirk’s fatal shooting at Utah Valley University, reveals a dramatic shift in the GOP’s outlook, with many citing rising political violence and national division as core reasons for their mounting pessimism.
The poll, which surveyed 1,183 U.S. adults between September 11 and 15, 2025, found that 51 percent of Republican voters now believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. That’s a staggering jump from just 29 percent in June and a 25 percentage-point spike from the 26 percent reported back in March. The overall share of U.S. adults who say the nation is on the wrong track has also surged, rising from 62 percent in June to 75 percent in mid-September, as reported by the Associated Press.
Charlie Kirk, a prominent right-wing influencer and conservative activist, was shot and killed on September 10 while addressing attendees at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. The alleged shooter, 22-year-old Tyler Robinson, was apprehended after a manhunt. Utah authorities have since announced they are seeking the death penalty against Robinson.
For many Republican voters, Kirk’s killing was a turning point—one that transformed a background sense of national unease into a front-and-center concern about the country’s future. Chris Bahr, a 42-year-old GOP voter and software administrator from Houston, Texas, told the Associated Press, "If you’d have talked to me two weeks ago, I wouldn’t have brought it up as a main concern but more of a gnawing feeling. It’s something I’ve been thinking about. But now it’s violence, while before it was just this sense of animosity and division."
This sentiment was echoed by Joclyn Yurchak, a 55-year-old warehouse worker from Pennsylvania. "It’s all the violence, not just political. There’s just so much crime in the country. It’s disgusting. Nobody has respect for anybody anymore. It’s sad," she told the Associated Press. Those feelings of disillusionment are not isolated; the poll found that the spike in pessimism among Republicans was especially pronounced among younger voters and women.
Specifically, 61 percent of GOP voters under the age of 45 said the country is off track, compared to 43 percent of those 45 and older. Republican women were also more likely than men to express a negative outlook, with 60 percent of women versus 43 percent of men saying the nation is heading in the wrong direction. These demographic divides suggest that the reaction to Kirk’s killing—and the broader sense of national malaise—runs deeper among certain segments of the Republican base.
Jeremy Gieske, a 47-year-old Republican and product manager from Minnesota, captured the mood of many in his party. "We’re at each other’s throats. This viciousness on both sides. We have villainized others, like we’re on the brink of social collapse. Is Kirk the straw that breaks the camel’s back or sets off a powder keg? It’s on everyone’s mind," he told the Associated Press.
The AP-NORC poll also gauged public opinion on President Trump’s performance across a range of issues. Trump’s strongest marks came in the areas of border security, where 55 percent of respondents approved of his handling, and crime, with a 46 percent approval rating. About four-in-ten respondents gave him positive marks on trade, the economy, the Israel-Hamas war, immigration, and health care. However, Trump’s overall approval rating stood at 39 percent, with 60 percent disapproving—figures that align closely with a recent YouGov/Economist poll, which found the president’s approval rating at 39 percent and disapproval at 57 percent.
Interestingly, the shift in Republican sentiment comes against a backdrop of already entrenched pessimism among Democrats. According to the poll, Democrats’ opinions about the country’s direction have remained largely unchanged since President Trump’s victory in the November 2024 presidential election. Most Democrats have consistently said the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction, suggesting that the recent surge in national pessimism is being driven primarily by a change in Republican views.
Political violence, already a simmering concern, has now become a central issue for many GOP voters. The Associated Press reported that the killing of Kirk has not only intensified worries about public safety but also deepened fears about the country’s social fabric. As Chris Bahr put it, "It’s not just about politics anymore. It’s the sense that violence could touch anyone, anywhere." For some, the tragedy has amplified existing worries about the tone and tenor of national discourse. For others, it has brought home the reality that political divisions can have deadly consequences.
The poll’s findings also highlight the splintering within the Republican Party itself. While older GOP voters and men are somewhat less likely to express pessimism, the sharp rise among younger Republicans and women suggests a generational and gender divide that could shape the party’s approach to future elections and policy debates. Some analysts point to the growing influence of social media and the proliferation of divisive rhetoric as factors fueling these divides, though the AP-NORC survey did not specifically address those issues.
Utah, the site of Kirk’s killing, has become a focal point for national debates about crime and punishment. State officials’ decision to seek the death penalty against Tyler Robinson reflects both the gravity of the crime and the broader anxieties about political violence in America. The Associated Press noted that the case is likely to remain in the headlines for months to come, as it raises questions about security at public events and the responsibilities of both law enforcement and political leaders in an era of heightened tensions.
As the nation grapples with these challenges, the AP-NORC poll underscores just how much the mood of the country can shift in the wake of a single, high-profile act of violence. For many Republicans, Kirk’s death was not just a tragedy but a catalyst—one that brought simmering fears to the surface and forced a reckoning with the state of the nation. Whether this shift in sentiment will endure, or translate into changes at the ballot box, remains to be seen.
For now, the numbers speak for themselves: a majority of Republicans—and three-quarters of all Americans—feel the country is on the wrong track, their outlook darkened by violence, division, and uncertainty about what comes next.