As the monsoon season reaches its dramatic peak across India, heavy rains and their devastating consequences have gripped both the Himalayan north and the bustling metropolis of Mumbai. From cloudbursts in mountain valleys to paralyzed city streets, the 2025 monsoon has underscored just how complex—and perilous—rainfall patterns can be in a changing climate.
In the Himalayan states of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Jammu and Kashmir, rainfall statistics alone have proven misleading. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), several districts that experienced deadly cloudbursts or flash floods—such as Kishtwar and Kathua in Jammu division and Uttarkashi in Uttarakhand—registered only 'normal' or even 'below-normal' rainfall for the season as of August 17, 2025. This paradox has left both residents and officials scrambling to understand the true risk lurking behind seemingly average numbers.
IMD data reveals a striking range: Himachal Pradesh received 613.6 mm of rain, 18 percent above its long-period average (LPA) of 519.5 mm, while Jammu and Kashmir saw 362.9 mm, 6 percent below its LPA of 385.2 mm. Uttarakhand recorded 947.9 mm, 14 percent above its LPA of 830.1 mm. Despite these differences, all three states fell within the IMD’s 'normal' rainfall category for the season. But as Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, told The Economic Times, "August is the peak monsoon month; heavy rainfall is not unusual. But with saturated land, deforestation and unstable slopes, even a 50-60 mm downpour can trigger an extreme event." He further warned that such dangerous weather events will "persist, in fact increase, due to global warming," with unstable glacial lakes adding to downstream flood risks.
The consequences have been all too real. On August 5, a cloudburst over the upper Kheer Ganga catchment in Uttarkashi triggered a debris-laden flash flood that devastated Dharali and the adjoining Harsil area. Just weeks earlier, late July brought similar destruction to Rudraprayag’s Kedarghati after another cloudburst, leaving homes and vehicles buried under debris. Ironically, Rudraprayag’s seasonal rainfall stood at 999.2 mm—11 percent below its normal of 1,125.9 mm—demonstrating that even below-average rainfall can accompany extreme, localized deluges.
Professor Sachchida Nand Tripathi, Dean at the Kotak School of Sustainability, IIT Kanpur, emphasized to The Economic Times that "average precipitation data alone cannot indicate whether an extreme event is likely." He pointed to the region’s orographic rainfall and partially melted glaciers, which have made lakes and water bodies "prone to sudden bursts that can unleash floods." The need for improved high-resolution forecasting tools, he said, is urgent.
Elsewhere in the hills, excess rainfall has also taken a toll. Mandi and Kullu districts in Himachal Pradesh recorded 69 percent and 47 percent above normal rainfall, respectively, with multiple cloudbursts, flash floods, and landslides reported. Hundreds of roads have been cut off, and, on August 16, two tourists from Delhi lost their lives to fatal shooting stones near Yulla Kanda in Kinnaur district amid active weather conditions. In contrast, some districts have seen massive surpluses—Bageshwar in Uttarakhand, for example, recorded a staggering 218 percent excess—but have so far avoided major disasters.
Experts say the frequency and intensity of such events are increasing. Kartiki Negi, Lead for Climate Impacts at Climate Trends, explained, "It is established that cloudburst or cloudburst-like conditions are increasing in the Himalayan region due to abnormal warming of oceans. For every degree rise in temperature, the atmosphere's capacity to hold moisture increases by 7 percent. Towering convective clouds, when confined by mountainous terrain, can unleash intense rainfall over a small area in a short period." Meteorologically, a cloudburst is defined as over 100 mm of rain in an hour across 20 to 30 square kilometers—an event nearly impossible to predict with precision, but one that can unleash sudden debris flows and flash floods, regardless of the season’s overall rainfall.
While the mountains have battled the fury of cloudbursts and landslides, Mumbai—India’s financial capital—has been paralyzed by a different kind of monsoon onslaught. On August 19, 2025, the IMD issued a 'red' warning, its highest level of danger, as powerful rains flooded roads, crippled public transport, and forced the closure of all schools and colleges. The Santacruz meteorological station recorded 238.2 mm of rain in a single day, the highest August figure since 2020, according to Bloomberg and UNN.
The city’s highways turned into rivers, halting buses and trains and causing massive delays for airlines such as IndiGo. The city’s authorities, recalling the tragic 2005 floods that claimed more than 400 lives, urged residents to stay indoors and avoid unnecessary travel. The IMD’s forecasts warned that rains with winds up to 65 km/h could persist for several hours, keeping the threat level extremely high.
As reported by The Hindustan Times, Mumbai’s vulnerabilities are well-known: its coastal location, dense population, and aging drainage systems make it especially susceptible to flooding. The relentless downpour overwhelmed stormwater drains, despite the deployment of additional pumps and field teams. Several bus routes were diverted, metro services operated with caution, and many offices and schools switched to remote work. Even essential service providers, including hospitals and emergency responders, faced daunting challenges as they worked to provide aid and treatment in waterlogged neighborhoods.
Neighboring districts were not spared either. Raigad was placed under an Orange Alert, while Palghar and Thane received Yellow Alerts for heavy to moderate rainfall. Officials in these areas remained on standby for emergencies, especially in flood-prone and coastal zones vulnerable to tidal surges. Local markets and business hubs saw a sharp drop in activity, and residents in low-lying areas resorted to portable pumps and sandbags to keep water at bay.
Meanwhile, Delhi faced its own water crisis as the Yamuna River crossed the danger mark at the Old Railway Bridge on August 18 and 19, 2025, following the release of over 100,000 cusecs of water from Haryana’s Hathnikund Barrage. The river’s level rose rapidly, breaching the danger mark at 2 p.m. on August 18 and reaching 205.79 meters by 8 a.m. the next morning—just shy of the evacuation threshold. Water spilled into residential areas at Yamuna Bazar, prompting Delhi Chief Minister Rekha Gupta to visit and assure citizens that food, water, and medical facilities were being provided. "There is no flood situation in Delhi," she stated, though authorities continued to monitor the situation closely.
The 2025 monsoon season has thus far proven both unpredictable and unforgiving. With sudden floods claiming lives in India, Pakistan, and South China, and with economic and humanitarian risks mounting in cities like Mumbai and Delhi, the stakes have rarely felt higher. As scientists and officials warn of more frequent extreme events in a warming world, India’s struggle to adapt—through better forecasting, urban planning, and emergency response—remains an urgent, ongoing challenge.
