In a political landscape once dominated by two parties, the United Kingdom is witnessing a seismic shift. Reform UK, a party that barely registered in national consciousness just four years ago, is now leading national polls, rattling the foundations of British politics and sparking heated debate about the future of the country. As the party convenes its annual conference in Birmingham this weekend—with an impressive 5,500 tickets reportedly sold, according to BBC—the question on everyone’s mind is whether Reform’s surge is a fleeting protest or a sign of deep, lasting realignment.
Reform UK’s rise has been nothing short of meteoric. Back in 2021, the party’s first conference was a modest affair, attracting only a few hundred activists. Nigel Farage, now the party’s leader and potential prime minister-in-waiting, was not even present. At the time, Reform polled at a meager 3% and had just two local councillors to its name. Fast forward to 2025, and the party is averaging between 30% and 31% in national polls, putting it ahead of both the Conservatives and Labour for five consecutive months—a feat unprecedented for any party outside the traditional duopoly, as reported by BBC.
What’s driving this remarkable growth? According to Sir John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, Reform UK’s success is rooted in its ability to capture the Brexit vote. The party boasts 53% support among those who voted Leave in 2016, while only 11% of Remain voters back it. This divide extends beyond Brexit, tapping into a broader set of cultural and economic anxieties. Reform’s supporters are overwhelmingly pessimistic about the country’s direction: 89% believe the economy will worsen in the coming year, and 69% are dissatisfied with the National Health Service. Immigration remains a lightning rod, with 97% of Reform voters saying current levels are too high.
But discontent with the status quo is only part of the story. Reform’s rise also reflects a widespread loss of faith in the traditional parties. As Curtice points out, Reform supporters lack confidence in both Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch to address the nation’s most pressing problems. In contrast, Nigel Farage enjoys sky-high approval among his base—84% of Reform supporters approve of his leadership, compared to just 62% of Labour supporters for Starmer and 46% of Conservatives for Badenoch. Even among the wider public, Farage’s approval ratings outpace his rivals.
“We’ve emerged seemingly out of nowhere in the last two or three years, and now we’re leading in the national polls,” said Richard Tice, Reform’s deputy leader, in a recent interview with the Institute of Art and Ideas (IAI). Tice, who has played a key role in shaping the party’s philosophy, dismisses the old left-right labels as outdated. “I think the old labels of ‘left’ and ‘right’ are a bit tired, in the same way I think people are tired of the traditional nature of politics.”
Reform UK’s policy platform defies easy categorization. While the party is often described as right-wing populist, it supports public ownership—Tice prefers the term over “nationalization”—of essential services such as electricity, water, and steel. Tice envisions a model with 50% public ownership and 50% held by long-term private capital, managed by top private-sector professionals. “Take the example of water, which is not a competitive market—you can only buy it from one place. Maybe you could have 50% public ownership, 50% owned by long-term, patient capital. But the critical thing is that it is managed by some of the best people in the private sector. That is a model that we haven’t really had in the UK. But I know it can work,” Tice explained to IAI.
At the same time, Tice is sharply critical of what he sees as the failures of liberal economics in the UK. He points to soaring utility bills, the poor state of water companies and rivers, and the risks of foreign ownership of critical infrastructure. “If you fully privatize water companies without a proper regulatory framework, run by competent regulators—if you allow Chinese billionaires to own all our electricity transmission network and our gas networks—you’re going to end up in a bad place,” he warned. Tice argues for “smart regulation” of markets, not overregulation, to ensure competition benefits ordinary people without letting monopolies “rip the customer off.”
This blend of economic nationalism and populist rhetoric has proven a powerful magnet for disaffected voters, particularly those who feel left behind by globalization and rapid social change. Reform’s supporters are not only skeptical of immigration and equalities policies but also of climate change measures. BBC’s analysis of recent polling reveals that 81% of Reform voters believe migrants have undermined Britain’s culture, and 73% say migrants have been bad for the economy. These figures stand in stark contrast to the general population, where just 31% and 32%, respectively, share those views.
On equalities, Reform voters are far more likely than the public at large to believe that efforts to promote rights for LGBTQ+ people and ethnic minorities have “gone too far.” Climate skepticism is also widespread: only a third of Reform backers believe climate change is mainly caused by human activity, compared to more than half of all voters. Unsurprisingly, Reform’s campaign messaging often highlights opposition to what it calls “government waste” on these issues, and its base is less supportive of increased taxes for public spending than the broader electorate.
Reform UK’s ascent has come largely at the expense of the Conservative Party. BBC reports that half of those who voted Conservative under Boris Johnson in 2019 are now backing Farage. The fragmentation of support for traditional parties has created a unique opening: in today’s splintered landscape, Reform’s 31% could be enough to win an election, especially if Labour and the Conservatives continue to lose votes to smaller rivals like the Liberal Democrats and Greens. However, as Curtice cautions, Labour’s more geographically concentrated support could still give it an edge in translating votes into parliamentary seats if it manages to consolidate its base.
Yet, for all its momentum, Reform UK faces significant challenges. Its support is heavily concentrated among pro-Brexit, socially conservative, and climate-skeptical voters—a coalition that, while potent, is not representative of the country as a whole. The party’s future may hinge on its ability to broaden its appeal beyond these core issues. Farage’s personal leadership is also a critical asset; any change at the top could test the party’s cohesion and popularity.
As the Reform conference unfolds in Birmingham, the party’s leaders and supporters are riding high. But whether they can sustain their surge, weather the inevitable storms of political life, and ultimately reshape British politics remains to be seen. For now, one thing is clear: the era of two-party dominance is over, and Reform UK is at the heart of the country’s new political reality.
