Political tides are shifting across the United Kingdom, with new parties and old rivals jostling for dominance in regions long considered strongholds for Labour and the Conservatives. Recent polling and membership surges point to a landscape in flux, with Reform UK making dramatic gains in Cumbria and Jeremy Corbyn’s newly launched party, tentatively called Your Party, drawing tens of thousands of supporters in Wales. The implications for the next general and regional elections are profound, signaling a potential realignment of British politics.
According to a poll published on August 10, 2025, by Election Maps UK, Reform UK—led by the ever-controversial Nigel Farage—could win a majority of seats in Cumbria if a general election were held today. This would mark a dramatic leap from the five seats the party secured in the 2024 general election, where it managed to build support in both rural communities and Labour’s traditional industrial heartlands. The poll projects Reform UK to win in Barrow, Carlisle, Workington, and Whitehaven, four key constituencies in the county. Notably, in 2024, Reform UK pushed the Conservatives into second place in Whitehaven and Workington, and ran them close in Penrith, the Solway, and Carlisle.
Labour, for its part, managed to regain seats in Cumbria that it had previously lost, but the recent polling suggests the party’s grip may be slipping once again. The national numbers are even more startling. Election Maps UK’s nowcast puts Reform UK on track for a majority in Parliament, projecting 332 seats with a 29.9% share of the vote. Labour is forecast to drop to 125 seats and 22.8% of the vote, while the Liberal Democrats would rise to 78 seats. The Conservatives, once the dominant force in British politics, are predicted to tumble to just 32 seats with an 18% vote share. The Scottish National Party (SNP) is set for 44 seats, the Greens for 5, and other parties for 9.
These figures, if borne out, would represent a seismic shift in the balance of power at Westminster. Reform UK’s rapid growth is not confined to Cumbria alone, but the county is emblematic of the party’s ability to tap into voter frustration across both rural and post-industrial regions. The party’s message, often focused on anti-establishment rhetoric and promises to “take back control,” appears to be resonating with a broad swath of the electorate—at least for now.
Meanwhile, in Wales, another political experiment is gathering steam. Jeremy Corbyn, the former Labour leader known for his left-wing platform, has teamed up with Zarah Sultana, herself a former Labour MP, to launch a new party. For the moment, it’s called Your Party, but organizers say a new name will be chosen soon. As of August 9, 2025, more than 23,000 people in Wales had signed up as supporters, part of a staggering 700,000 UK-wide who have thrown their lot in with the fledgling movement.
The party’s organizers describe this groundswell as evidence of “the strength and breadth of feeling across our communities for a new kind of political party.” In an email to supporters, they wrote, “It is clear that there is an appetite for change in every nation and region across the UK and the numbers who have signed up to build a real alternative to poverty, inequality and war are staggering—a real ‘wow factor’.”
Key figures in Wales include Beth Winter, a former MP for Cynon Valley who was not reselected by Labour ahead of the 2024 election and has since become a vocal critic of the party. Winter is joined by Mark Serwotka, the former head of the PCS union and a Cardiff native. According to the party’s email, “Beth Winter and Mark Serwotka will be working with others across Wales—people within our communities, trade unions, social movements, campaigns and many more—to ensure that the party belongs to you.”
Winter’s involvement is not just political; she is also listed as a director of MoU Operations Ltd, the company responsible for handling donation processing and data management for Your Party. The party’s website makes clear that MoU Operations Ltd acts as the data controller for financial transactions related to donations, ensuring transparency and regulatory compliance as the movement grows.
Supporters are being told that an inaugural conference will be held soon, where the party’s structure, priorities, and organizing principles will be decided. “Over the coming weeks they will be looking to hear your voice about how your party should work in our country. It will be for the people of Wales to determine the priorities and programme for Wales,” the organizers said in the same email.
Whether Your Party will be able to field candidates in the Senedd elections scheduled for May 2026 remains an open question. The party’s rapid growth in supporters is impressive, but as seasoned observers note, being a supporter is not the same as being a dues-paying member. Political parties traditionally keep their precise membership numbers close to the chest, but the distinction is important: supporters sign up for updates and involvement, while members pay fees and have formal voting rights. Reform UK, for example, boasted in January 2025 that it had 7,800 members in Wales—more than the Conservative Party at the time.
The emergence of Your Party could have significant repercussions for Welsh politics. Current polling shows Plaid Cymru outperforming Labour, largely by attracting disillusioned Labour voters. The arrival of a new left-wing party with substantial grassroots support could upend these projections, potentially splitting the progressive vote or even redrawing the electoral map in unpredictable ways.
All of this is playing out against a backdrop of growing dissatisfaction with the status quo. Both Reform UK and Your Party are capitalizing on a sense among many voters that the traditional parties have failed to deliver on their promises. For some, Reform UK’s populist messaging is a breath of fresh air; for others, Corbyn’s call for a “real alternative to poverty, inequality and war” offers hope for a different kind of politics. The next general election and the 2026 Senedd contest in Wales will serve as crucial tests of whether these new movements can turn enthusiasm into electoral power.
For now, one thing is clear: the United Kingdom’s political landscape is more volatile and unpredictable than it has been in decades. From Cumbria to Cardiff, voters are weighing their options and, perhaps, preparing to rewrite the rules of British politics once again.
