Major League Baseball’s playoff race has reached a fever pitch, and nowhere is the tension more palpable than in Cincinnati. The Reds, who have demonstrated grit and resilience all season long, now find themselves with their backs firmly against the wall after a tough 4-2 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park on September 23, 2025. With just five games remaining in the regular season, the Reds’ postseason hopes hang by a thread, and every pitch, every swing, and every managerial decision is under the microscope.
The fallout from Tuesday night’s defeat was immediate and significant. The loss knocked Cincinnati out of the coveted National League Wild Card spot, leaving them tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks at 80-77, one game behind the surging New York Mets, who secured a win against the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday. According to FanGraphs, the Reds’ playoff odds plunged from a promising 49.2% before the Pirates game to just 20.9% after the defeat. Baseball Reference paints a slightly rosier picture, giving Cincinnati a 24% shot at reaching the postseason. But let’s not sugarcoat it—the Reds need help, and they need it fast.
“We just come into the next day with the same mentality,” star shortstop Elly De La Cruz said after the loss. “Our mentality is to win. We lost today. Tomorrow, we clean it up and we come with the same mentality.” That’s the kind of attitude Reds fans have come to expect from this squad. Time and again in 2025, they’ve bounced back when it looked like their season might be slipping away. But with the clock ticking down and the margin for error razor thin, the challenge has never been greater.
Manager Terry Francona echoed De La Cruz’s sentiments, emphasizing the team’s resolve. “That wasn’t our goal today, but we will come back tomorrow,” Francona stated after Tuesday’s defeat. “We are going to face a really good pitcher tomorrow so it’ll be a really good challenge. We will be ready to go.” The “really good pitcher” in question? None other than Paul Skenes, the Pirates’ ace and a frontrunner for the National League Cy Young Award in 2025.
The stakes for Wednesday night’s rematch couldn’t be higher. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm ET at Great American Ball Park, and all eyes will be on the mound. Hunter Greene, Cincinnati’s electric right-hander, gets the nod for the Reds. Greene has been a model of dominance and unpredictability this season. In his most recent outing, he tossed a complete game shutout against the Cubs, allowing just one hit and one walk—a performance that had fans and pundits alike buzzing about his potential. Yet, that gem came on the heels of one of his worst starts in recent memory, when he surrendered five runs in just 2.1 innings against the Athletics. In 2025, Greene has logged 101.2 innings, posted a 2.74 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and racked up 125 strikeouts against just 24 walks. His fastball averages an eye-popping 99.5 mph, and his slider and splitter have baffled hitters from both sides of the plate.
Across the diamond, Paul Skenes has been nothing short of sensational. With a league-leading 2.03 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, 209 strikeouts, and only 42 walks over 181.2 innings, Skenes has set the standard for pitching excellence in the National League this year. He’s coming off his worst start of the season (three runs in 3.2 innings against the Cubs), but that’s a blip in an otherwise dominant campaign. When Skenes last faced the Reds six weeks ago, he tossed six shutout innings, scattering seven hits and issuing zero walks. Right-handed hitters have been especially helpless, managing just a .184 average and a .500 OPS against him all season long.
For the Reds, the path forward is daunting but not impossible. The division title is out of reach, so it’s all about the Wild Card. The standings are tight: Chicago leads the pack, San Diego is close behind, and the Mets, Diamondbacks, and Reds are locked in a three-way tussle for that final postseason ticket. The Mets, currently holding the edge, are facing the Cubs in Chicago, while the Diamondbacks are hosting the Dodgers. Scoreboard watching has become a nightly ritual for Reds fans, and every out in every game could shift the balance.
But there’s more to the Reds’ story than just the big-league drama. Cincinnati’s farm system received recognition this week as Baseball America named Sal Stewart the 1st team third baseman and Alfredo Duno the 2nd team catcher on their 2025 Minor League All-Stars list. That’s a testament to the organization’s depth and a glimmer of hope for the future, regardless of how this season ends.
Betting markets reflect the precariousness of Cincinnati’s situation. According to BetMGM, the Reds are -130 to make the playoffs and +110 to miss out. Their odds to win the World Series are a long shot at +6600, ranking them 14th among all MLB teams. Baseball Reference estimates a 1.2% chance for the Reds to reach the Fall Classic and a 0.4% chance to win it all; FanGraphs is even less optimistic, pegging their World Series hopes at just 0.2%. Still, as any baseball fan knows, October can be full of surprises—and this Cincinnati club has made a habit of defying expectations.
Looking back, the last time the Reds played postseason baseball was in 2020, when they fell in the NL Wild Card series to the Atlanta Braves. Since then, Cincinnati has endured its share of ups and downs. The current roster, led by the likes of De La Cruz, Hunter Greene, and a supporting cast of gritty veterans and emerging stars, has captured the city’s imagination with its never-say-die attitude.
As the regular season winds down, the Reds’ fate is out of their hands—at least in part. They’ll need to take care of business on the field, starting with Wednesday’s showdown against the Pirates and Skenes, and hope for favorable results from other contenders. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that this team has thrived under pressure all year. “We choose to go out there with the mentality to win. That’s what we got to do,” De La Cruz insisted, and it’s hard to argue with that mindset.
One thing is certain: the next few days will be a rollercoaster for Cincinnati and its loyal fanbase. With playoff hopes flickering but not extinguished, the Reds remain in the hunt—clinging to belief, resilience, and a little bit of baseball magic. The action continues, and the city holds its breath.
