The political map of the United States is being redrawn—sometimes literally—as both Republican and Democratic leaders race to tilt the balance of power in Congress ahead of the pivotal 2026 midterm elections. In a year marked by escalating partisanship and high-stakes legislative maneuvering, redistricting has emerged as the new battlefield, with states like Texas and California leading opposing charges and a domino effect rippling through legislatures from Missouri to Maryland.
On August 29, 2025, Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed into law a controversial new U.S. House map, a move widely seen as an effort to help Republicans pick up as many as five additional seats in the 2026 elections. According to the Associated Press, the new map was sought by former President Donald Trump and comes after a dramatic two-week walkout by Texas Democrats, who tried to block the special session by denying a quorum. Their protest ultimately failed when Republicans simply called another session and Democrats returned, satisfied that their point had been made and that California was preparing a counteroffensive.
California Democrats, for their part, quickly launched their own plan. On August 21, 2025, the state legislature passed a revised House district map designed to give Democrats a shot at gaining five more seats of their own. But unlike Texas, where the legislature can make changes directly, California’s independent redistricting commission—established by voters in 2010 to prevent partisan gerrymandering—meant that any changes would need to go before voters in a special referendum scheduled for November 4. If approved, the new map would be in effect for the 2026, 2028, and 2030 elections, after which the commission would regain control.
This tit-for-tat escalation has not gone unnoticed by political leaders elsewhere. Missouri Governor Mike Kehoe, just hours after Abbott’s announcement, called a special legislative session to redraw congressional districts in his state, unveiling a map that targets the seat of Democratic U.S. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver by stretching his Kansas City-based district into surrounding rural Republican areas. Republicans currently hold six of Missouri’s eight congressional seats, and the proposed changes could make it seven.
Other states are now eyeing similar moves. Kansas Republican Senate President Ty Masterson has not ruled out a redistricting effort before the June 1 candidate filing deadline next year, potentially endangering the state’s lone Democratic House seat. Indiana’s Republican leaders met privately with Trump in Washington, D.C., on August 26 to discuss possible redistricting, with some lawmakers expressing support and others voicing hesitation. In Louisiana, lawmakers are keeping their calendars open for a possible special session after the Supreme Court hears arguments on October 15 about the state’s current congressional map. Ohio, meanwhile, is required by its constitution to redraw its House districts before the 2026 midterms, with Democrats bracing for Republicans to try to expand their 10-5 majority.
New York Democrats have introduced legislation to allow mid-decade redistricting, but the earliest such changes could take effect would be 2028, as the proposal requires a constitutional amendment and voter approval. In Maryland, Democrats are preparing to file redistricting legislation in response to moves by Texas and other states. Florida’s Republican leaders, including Governor Ron DeSantis, have pledged support for redistricting and called for a new Census count, with hopes of securing another House seat for the state.
Not all redistricting efforts are moving forward smoothly. On August 25, a Utah judge ruled the state’s congressional map unlawful, finding that lawmakers had circumvented an independent redistricting commission meant to ensure fairness. The judge gave the legislature until September 24 to adopt a compliant map, raising the possibility that Democrats could gain a foothold in what has been a solidly Republican delegation.
At the heart of this nationwide scramble is a broader political and cultural clash, with issues like abortion rights and health care funding fueling the fire. In California, abortion rights groups have thrown their weight behind Democratic efforts to redraw the map. Jodi Hicks, CEO of Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, declared, “You take away our freedoms, we’ll take away your seats,” during Governor Gavin Newsom’s campaign to adopt Democratic-leaning maps to counteract Republican gains in Texas. Hicks promised that her organization would “go all in” on the ballot measure, underscoring the high stakes for groups like Planned Parenthood, which have faced funding cuts and new restrictions since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022.
Planned Parenthood’s mobilization is part of a larger push by health-care advocates to prevent further political and financial losses. The Trump administration’s recent tax-and-spending bill slashed Medicaid by nearly $1 trillion over ten years, and new rules have barred Planned Parenthood affiliates from receiving reimbursement for nonabortion services—a move currently paused by a federal judge. According to KFF Health News, national abortion rights group Reproductive Freedom for All also praised Newsom for “holding Republicans accountable for trying to steal votes,” while Planned Parenthood Texas Votes has urged supporters to testify against what they call a “redistricting power grab.”
California Republicans, however, argue that the state’s redistricting proposal is a “calculated power grab that dismantles the very safeguards voters put in place” with the 2010 reforms, as party chair Corrin Rankin told KFF Health News. They warn that bypassing the independent commission could set a dangerous precedent and undermine public trust.
Political analysts are watching closely. Dave Wasserman, senior editor at the Cook Political Report, told KFF Health News that if Democrats fail to pass their ballot initiative in California, Republicans could go from having a narrow chance to hold the House to an even shot. But he also noted that public opinion on health-care cuts remains a significant obstacle for the GOP, with a July KFF poll showing nearly half of adults believe the Republican tax-and-spending law will hurt them. More than half of Americans, according to a May Gallup poll, think abortion should be legal in at least some circumstances.
Democratic leaders have framed their redistricting efforts as a necessary response to what they see as an existential threat to democracy. “They know that voters will hold them accountable for the cuts they rammed through Congress that will strip health care away from millions of people,” said California State Senator Sabrina Cervantes, chair of the Senate Elections and Constitutional Amendments Committee. “Because they know they cannot win fair elections, they are changing the rules in the middle of the game.”
Yet, not everyone is convinced. Veteran GOP strategist Rob Stutzman told KFF Health News that passing such a complex ballot measure in an off-year election would be “no easy feat,” especially since California voters still overwhelmingly support the independent redistricting system. “You’re asking voters to make an unprincipled decision. You’re asking them to rig an election because allegedly Texas is rigging an election,” Stutzman said. “’No’ votes are so much easier when it’s confusing, and this is extremely confusing.”
As the 2026 midterms approach, the redistricting wars show no sign of abating. With both parties locked in a high-stakes contest over the rules of the game itself, the outcome could shape not just the next Congress, but the future of American democracy for years to come.
