On Friday, September 19, 2025, the English Channel once again became the focal point of Britain’s ongoing migration debate as more than 1,000 people made the perilous journey to the UK in small boats. According to Home Office figures cited by Sky News and The Telegraph, 1,072 individuals crossed in just 13 vessels—averaging over 82 people per boat. This surge pushed the year’s total Channel crossings to 32,103, a record for this stage in the calendar and a stark indicator of the scale of the challenge confronting Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s government.
This latest influx came on the very day the UK government deported two men—a milestone that marked only the third time an individual had been returned to France under the much-touted “one in, one out” migrant returns deal. The agreement, brokered with French President Emmanuel Macron during the summer, is designed to allow the UK to send back migrants who cross the Channel illegally in exchange for accepting an equal number of asylum seekers from France who have strong claims to refuge in Britain. Ministers hope the scheme will eventually act as a deterrent to those considering the dangerous journey.
Yet, despite the government’s optimism, the numbers so far are modest. As reported by The Telegraph and Reuters, only three individuals have been returned to France since the agreement came into force last month. On Thursday, September 18, an Indian national was deported. The following day, an Eritrean man—whose removal was sanctioned after a High Court challenge failed—and an Iranian man were also sent back. Under the treaty, the UK can immediately detain anyone who crosses the Channel and, within roughly two weeks, coordinate with French authorities to return the individual. For each person returned, the UK will accept a migrant from France with a valid asylum claim.
Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Secretary David Lammy, speaking on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, defended the pilot scheme, emphasizing its early-stage nature. "This pilot is the first step at a negotiated deal with France for one in, one out," Lammy explained, as quoted by Sky News. "It's the beginning, not the end of the story." He further stated the government’s intent to build upon the scheme and increase the number of returns over the coming months, suggesting that the home secretary would be working to expand the program’s impact.
Lammy also asserted that the returns provided an "immediate deterrent" for would-be migrants, echoing the government’s hope that the threat of being sent back would discourage crossings. However, he acknowledged voter frustration, noting, "I recognise the issue is frustrating for voters." The government is expecting to receive the first group of asylum seekers from France under the reciprocal aspect of the deal in the week starting September 22, 2025.
Despite the government’s positive spin, the opposition was quick to voice skepticism. Chris Philp, the Conservative shadow home secretary, dismissed the deal as “meagre” and lambasted the low number of returns. In his words, “The France deal would still allow 94% of illegal Channel immigrants to stay—that is obviously not a deterrent at all.” Philp went further, calling the current number of returns “pathetic” and arguing that the scheme would offer “no deterrent effect whatsoever.” The Conservatives have also renewed calls for the reinstatement of the Rwanda scheme, which the Labour government scrapped upon taking office. That controversial plan, which saw just four volunteers sent to Rwanda over two years, was abandoned in favor of the new arrangement with France.
For many observers, the debate over deterrence is not just a matter of numbers but of broader policy direction. The government’s approach is underpinned by the belief that swift returns will make the Channel crossing less attractive to migrants and smugglers alike. However, the sheer volume of arrivals—especially on days with favorable weather, such as September 19—underscores the formidable nature of the crisis. Notably, the latest influx followed eight consecutive days with zero arrivals, a lull attributed to rough sea conditions. This pattern of sudden surges after periods of inactivity has repeated several times in 2025, with the daily total exceeding 1,000 on three occasions so far.
The returns deal is not without legal and political complications. The removal of the Eritrean man on September 19 was only possible after the government prevailed in a High Court challenge, highlighting the role of the judiciary and the complexity of enforcing removals. The scheme also operates within the framework of international law, including the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). Some voices within the UK have called for withdrawal from the ECHR, arguing that certain articles—such as Article 8, which protects the right to family and private life—are being used to block deportations. Lammy, a former lawyer, pushed back against this suggestion, warning that leaving the ECHR would “undermine” the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland, a cornerstone of peace in the region.
As the numbers continue to climb, the government faces mounting pressure from all sides. Supporters of tougher border controls argue that the current pace of returns is insufficient and that more robust measures are needed to stem the flow. Critics of deterrence-based policies, meanwhile, question the human cost and efficacy of such approaches, pointing to the continued high rate of crossings despite the new deal. The Labour government, for its part, insists that the pilot scheme is only the start and that further steps will follow.
In the coming weeks, the arrival of the first asylum seekers from France under the reciprocal element of the deal will be closely watched. Ministers hope that this balanced exchange will demonstrate the UK’s commitment to both border security and humanitarian obligations. Yet, with over 32,000 crossings already recorded in 2025 and the Channel crisis showing little sign of abating, the ultimate test of the scheme’s effectiveness—and the government’s resolve—still lies ahead.
For now, the Channel remains a symbol of both hope and hardship, its waters reflecting the complexities and contradictions of Britain’s migration debate as autumn approaches.
