Rare earth minerals—those elusive, indispensable elements that power everything from electric vehicles to advanced missile systems—have vaulted into the spotlight in 2025, as geopolitical tensions and bold new policies have sent their markets into a frenzy. On October 23, 2025, rare earth stocks surged to record highs, a move driven by a confluence of government action, supply chain anxiety, and the promise of untapped American mineral wealth. But what’s really behind the boom, and what does it mean for investors, national security, and the average American?
According to EBC, the world’s rare earth market is dominated by China, which controls about 70% of global production and a staggering 85% of refining capacity as of October 2025. This dominance has long made Western governments uneasy, but recent events have turned concern into outright urgency. When China tightened export policies and signaled new restrictions, global buyers scrambled to diversify their supply chains. The result? A swift, sharp rally in companies poised to fill the gap.
The United States and Australia have responded with a flurry of initiatives to onshore and secure critical minerals. The U.S. government, in particular, has rolled out direct investments, subsidies, and regulatory reforms to nurture a domestic rare earth industry. The Department of Defense (DoD) has played a starring role, investing $400 million in MP Materials—a domestic mining and processing powerhouse—and locking in a 10-year supply agreement for neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) at $110 per kilogram. As a result, MP Materials’ stock soared nearly 400% year-to-date, making it the bellwether for Western hopes of rare earth independence.
Lynas Rare Earths, based in Australia and the largest non-China producer, has also seen its fortunes soar. When automakers sounded the alarm over potential Chinese export curbs, Lynas shares leapt as buyers rushed to secure alternative suppliers. The company’s year-to-date gains have ranged between 190% and 250%, fueled by its key operations at Mount Weld and a reputation for timely project delivery—though, like all in the sector, it faces risks from project delays and cost overruns.
Newer entrants like USA Rare Earth have attracted speculative flows, with stock gains exceeding 215% so far in 2025. While these early-stage players stand to benefit from the new policy environment, they also carry substantial operational risk. For investors who prefer a broader approach, thematic exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like VanEck’s REMX have offered diversified exposure, posting gains of 75-82% year-to-date. However, as EBC notes, such ETFs can sometimes concentrate too heavily on a few big winners, amplifying both upside and downside.
Behind the market excitement lies a deeper, potentially transformative story. In a recent presentation, former CIA advisor and financial strategist Jim Rickards described what he calls "America’s $150 Trillion Birthright"—a reference to the vast mineral wealth lying beneath U.S. soil. Rickards claims that for 163 years, much of this resource-rich land was off-limits to large-scale development. But a recent Supreme Court decision overturning the Chevron Doctrine has, in his words, "quietly opened the door for a new wave of domestic resource extraction."
"As we speak—Trump and his team are pushing for the release of a ‘national endowment’ worth at least $150 trillion," Rickards said in his presentation, as reported by GlobeNewswire. "A number so large it’s big enough to wipe out our national debt four times over… or cut a check to each American family for $1.1 million." Rickards compares the coming mineral rush to Abraham Lincoln’s Homestead Act of 1862, which gave pioneers access to public land. This time, however, the focus is on minerals rather than land ownership, and the potential wealth involved is even greater.
The Pentagon’s response has been swift and substantial. On October 23, it launched a $1 billion buying spree to stockpile cobalt, antimony, scandium, and other critical minerals—the most aggressive mineral acquisition campaign since the Cold War, according to public filings from the Defense Logistics Agency. The filings detail requests for up to $500 million in cobalt, $245 million in antimony, and hundreds of millions more in scandium, tantalum, and other strategic metals. The goal: blunt China’s near-total control over the rare-earth supply chain, which is vital for technologies ranging from jet fighters and radar systems to artificial intelligence weapons.
"Donald Trump could become a national hero… one of the most powerful Presidents in memory," Rickards declared, suggesting that the administration’s actions could lead to the creation of a strategic sovereign fund capable of erasing the national debt and providing unprecedented wealth to American families. President Trump himself has been quoted as saying, "There are certain areas where we have great, raw earth. And we’re not allowed to use it because of the environment… and I’m going to open them up." Rickards contends that the administration is now "fast-tracking companies that will recover trillions of dollars’ worth of resources, right here in America."
Of course, the promise of mineral riches comes with no shortage of risks. Rare earth mining and refining are capital-intensive, environmentally sensitive, and prone to delays and cost overruns. As EBC warns, "Many small juniors promise supply but fail to deliver." There’s also the ever-present threat of policy whiplash: China can reduce exports or flood markets with cheap product, undermining non-Chinese producers’ profits and sending prices into a tailspin. The sector is notorious for violent reversals, as stocks often trade more on headlines than on demonstrated production growth.
Meanwhile, the European Union has launched its own Critical Raw Materials Act, aiming to secure 10% of domestic supply by 2030, while Australia and Japan have renewed long-term supply deals. The global race to secure rare earths and other strategic minerals has become a defining feature of industrial and geopolitical policy in 2025.
For investors, the message is clear: opportunity abounds, but so do pitfalls. EBC recommends a balanced approach, with diversification across companies at different operational stages and footprints. ETFs can provide broader exposure, but due diligence on project status, policy developments, and financial health is essential. As the sector’s history shows, fortunes can change in a flash—sometimes on the back of a single government announcement or policy shift.
As the U.S., China, and other global powers vie for control of the world’s mineral resources, the stakes have never been higher. With new policies in motion, long-dormant assets coming into play, and investors piling in, the rare earth boom of 2025 is shaping up to be one for the history books—one where national security, economic ambition, and the promise of untold wealth all collide in the dirt beneath our feet.
