On August 15, 2025, the world’s gaze turned to Alaska as Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump met face-to-face at Elmendorf Air Force Base near Anchorage. The high-stakes summit, the first between the two leaders since 2018, lasted nearly three hours in a tightly controlled "three-on-three" format. But while the meeting itself grabbed headlines, analysts and officials warn that its true significance may lie in what happened—and what was planned—behind the scenes.
According to a detailed report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), citing sources from Reuters and corroborated by Ukrainian and German intelligence, Putin’s primary goal at the summit was to "buy time" ahead of a renewed Russian military offensive in Ukraine, expected to begin in October or November 2025. Ukrainian officials, in fact, had warned their German counterparts just days earlier, on August 13, that Moscow would use the Alaska meeting to stall for time and prepare for a major escalation on the battlefield. This warning, as Reuters reported, was echoed at the highest levels of Ukrainian intelligence and government.
The ISW’s assessment, based on a synthesis of open-source intelligence and confidential briefings, aligns with a series of public warnings from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his senior defense officials. On August 12, Zelenskyy outlined Russia’s likely troop movements, stating, "Russia may transfer 15,000 troops to Zaporizhia, 7,000 troops to Pokrovsk, and 5,000 troops to Novopavlivka for upcoming offensive operations." These figures, he suggested, pointed to a multi-pronged attack in the autumn, though the precise location of Russia’s main effort remains unclear.
While the world’s attention was fixed on the diplomatic choreography in Alaska, Russian forces on the ground in Ukraine were hardly idle. ISW analysts and multiple news outlets, including Reuters, reported intensified Russian military activity during and after the summit. In particular, Russian troops conducted an infiltration operation near Dobropillya in Donetsk Oblast, a move seen as both a show of force and a tactical probe. At the same time, Russian forces stockpiled drones and missiles, preparing for strikes that would soon devastate Ukrainian cities.
The most tragic of these attacks came on the night of August 27-28, when a barrage of Russian drones and missiles struck Kyiv. The assault killed 23 civilians, including four children, and injured 53 others, according to Ukrainian authorities. The timing was no coincidence. As the ISW noted, "Russian forces amassed drones and missiles used in a strike on Kyiv on August 28, 2025, killing 23 people including four children and injuring 53 others." The strike underscored the Kremlin’s willingness to target civilian populations and its determination to maintain pressure on Ukraine’s leadership.
Behind these battlefield maneuvers, Russia’s broader strategy is coming into sharper focus. ISW and other analysts argue that the Kremlin’s military objectives in Ukraine remain unchanged, despite the diplomatic overtures and periodic talk of ceasefires. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently stated flatly that Russia’s goals "have not changed," and the ISW’s long-term assessment is that Moscow is preparing for a protracted conflict—possibly extending well into 2026.
The Alaska summit, then, was not just about optics or public posturing. According to Ukrainian and Western intelligence, it provided Russia with a critical window to regroup, resupply, and shift battlefield tactics. During the same period, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov delivered a speech to the Russian Ministry of Defense outlining changes in military production priorities. Notably, Belousov emphasized a shift from heavy armored vehicles to lighter vehicles, reflecting lessons learned from the winter campaigns of 2024-2025. He also highlighted Russia’s investment in unmanned systems and drone production, as well as a push to digitize recruitment and mobilization processes—a sign that Moscow is bracing for a long and grinding war of attrition.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have not stood still. According to both ISW and Reuters, Ukraine has continued to strike Russian military facilities and energy infrastructure, including oil depots, inside Russia and in occupied territories. These attacks have contributed to gasoline shortages in Russia, demonstrating Kyiv’s ability to disrupt the Kremlin’s war machine even as it faces mounting pressure on its own front lines.
On the diplomatic front, the flurry of activity did not end with the Alaska summit. On August 18, just three days after meeting with Trump, President Zelenskyy visited the White House. There, agreements were reached to work on security guarantees for Ukraine—a move seen as a signal of continued U.S. support, despite the complex and often fraught relationship between Washington and Moscow. Later in the month, on August 29, U.S. and Ukrainian officials met in New York and reaffirmed Ukraine’s readiness for peace talks with Russia, "including at the level of heads of state," as reported by Reuters. Whether these talks will yield substantive progress remains to be seen, but the willingness to engage diplomatically stands in stark contrast to the Kremlin’s apparent preparations for further escalation.
Amid all this, the human cost of the conflict continues to mount. The August 28 attack on Kyiv was just the latest in a long series of strikes that have targeted Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and civilians. The ISW, citing both Ukrainian and international sources, notes that Russian forces have intensified strikes on Kherson and other contested areas, part of a broader effort to achieve battlefield objectives before the end of 2025. Deputy Head of Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, stated that Russian troops plan to achieve their goals in Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk by early September 2025. However, the initial Russian plan to capture the entire Donetsk Region has been postponed from August 1 to December 31, 2025, a sign that the conflict is not proceeding according to Moscow’s original timeline.
As both sides dig in for what promises to be a brutal autumn and winter, observers warn that hostilities are likely to continue into 2026. The Kremlin, according to ISW and other analysts, is ready for a protracted war and shows little interest in a genuine ceasefire. Russian battlefield tactics are evolving, with a greater emphasis on assault groups and unmanned systems, while Ukraine continues to innovate and strike back wherever possible.
The Alaska summit may have been billed as a diplomatic milestone, but for those watching events on the ground, it was a prelude to another, potentially more dangerous phase of the war. With both sides maneuvering for advantage—militarily, diplomatically, and politically—the world will be watching closely as autumn approaches and the specter of a new Russian offensive looms over Ukraine.
