Punxsutawney Phil Predicts Six More Weeks Of Winter

On the crisp morning of February 2, 2026, as the first rays of sunlight crept over Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, a familiar ritual unfolded before tens of thousands of eager spectators. The world’s most famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, emerged from his tree stump, blinked at the gathered crowd, and—true to tradition—saw his shadow. With that simple act, Phil delivered his verdict: six more weeks of winter lay ahead.

Phil’s forecast, announced amid the cheers (and a few groans) of onlookers, marked the 110th time since record-keeping began that the groundhog has predicted a longer winter. According to USA TODAY, the ceremony drew thousands of visitors to the small borough in Jefferson County, about 80 to 90 miles northeast of Pittsburgh. Some had braved subzero temperatures for over a week, hoping for a sign that spring might be on the horizon. Instead, they were met with the familiar refrain of extended cold—a result that, as NewsNation reported, was met with a chorus of booing from the audience.

Groundhog Day, celebrated annually on February 2, is a tradition with roots stretching back to 1887 at Gobbler’s Knob. The event has grown from a local curiosity to a global spectacle, especially after the release of the 1993 film "Groundhog Day" starring Bill Murray, which catapulted Punxsutawney and its marmot meteorologist into popular culture. According to The Associated Press, the festivities now attract tens of thousands of visitors and are led by Phil’s "Inner Circle"—a group of men in top hats who interpret Phil’s so-called "groundhogese" of winks, purrs, chatters, and nods to deliver his forecast to the world.

The tradition is steeped in folklore and agricultural history. Groundhog Day falls at the midpoint between the winter solstice and the spring equinox, a time historically significant in both the Celtic calendar and the Christian feast day of Candlemas. As USA TODAY and the Old Farmer’s Almanac explain, Candlemas was once used to anticipate the coming planting season, with sunshine on the day said to foretell a lingering winter. While Europeans originally looked to bears or badgers to divine the weather, German immigrants in Pennsylvania adopted the groundhog as their prognosticator of choice, giving rise to the tradition that persists today.

Phil’s accuracy, however, is a subject of perennial debate. As NewsNation candidly notes, the groundhog’s predictions have only been correct about 39% of the time since 1887. Despite this less-than-stellar record, the spectacle continues to captivate audiences year after year. The legend holds that if Phil sees his shadow, six more weeks of winter are in store; if not, an early spring is on the way. Yet, as the record books show, Phil has favored winter far more often than spring, predicting extended cold 110 times compared to just 21 forecasts for an early thaw.

The event’s rich history is peppered with memorable moments. Phil’s first official shadow sighting dates back to 1887, and the first front-page newspaper coverage came in 1908. In 1913, John Frampton snapped the first newspaper photo of Phil seeing his shadow. The longest streak of shadow sightings spanned 21 years, from 1913 to 1933, while the longest stretch without a shadow was a mere two years, between 2019 and 2020. The only time Phil missed his appearance was in 1943, during the throes of World War II—a testament to the enduring nature of this quirky American custom.

Phil’s predictions are not made in isolation. Across the U.S., Canada, and beyond, other communities hold their own Groundhog Day events, each with their own local celebrity rodents. The Susquehanna Valley, for example, boasts its own lineup of weather-predicting groundhogs, though none has achieved the fame of Punxsutawney Phil. Still, it’s Phil’s shadow—or lack thereof—that captures the world’s attention every February.

This year’s prediction was hardly a surprise for seasoned observers. As USA TODAY pointed out, Phil has announced six more weeks of winter in four of the last six years: 2025, 2023, 2022, and 2021. Early springs are rare, with the last such forecast coming in 2024. The ceremony itself is a blend of pageantry and folklore, with Phil’s Inner Circle donning their signature top hats and black coats, adding a sense of gravitas (and a bit of whimsy) to the proceedings. The handlers maintain that only they can understand Phil’s unique language, translating his subtle gestures into a weather prediction for the masses.

For many, the event is as much about community and tradition as it is about meteorological accuracy. The crowd at Gobbler’s Knob, often numbering in the tens of thousands, comes not just for the forecast but for the camaraderie, the spectacle, and the chance to be part of a living piece of American folklore. The annual gathering is a boon for the local economy, drawing visitors from across the country and even abroad, all eager to witness the legendary groundhog’s moment in the spotlight.

Despite the festive atmosphere, the reality of Phil’s forecast was a letdown for those hoping for an early reprieve from winter’s grasp. As The Associated Press observed, the East Coast has been enduring particularly harsh conditions, making the prospect of six more weeks of cold weather especially unwelcome. Yet, for all the disappointment, the tradition endures, a testament to the enduring appeal of this peculiar ritual.

Looking back over the 139-year history of Groundhog Day, it’s clear that Phil’s legend has only grown. From his humble beginnings in the late 19th century to his status as a pop culture icon, Punxsutawney Phil remains a symbol of hope, whimsy, and the enduring human fascination with the mysteries of the seasons. Whether or not his forecasts hold up to scientific scrutiny, the annual ceremony at Gobbler’s Knob continues to bring people together, year after year, in celebration of winter’s midpoint and the promise—however distant—of spring’s return.

As the crowds dispersed and the top hats were packed away for another year, one thing was certain: Groundhog Day 2026 had delivered another chapter in the long, storied saga of Punxsutawney Phil. And for better or worse, winter is here to stay—at least for six more weeks, if the world’s most famous groundhog is to be believed.