On October 15, 2025, Newfoundland and Labrador found itself at the heart of a new political era. The Progressive Conservatives, led by Tony Wakeham, swept into power with a slim majority, ending a decade of Liberal rule and upending the province’s political and economic landscape. The outcome, widely covered by CTV News and CBC, was historic not just for the margin of victory but also for what it signals about the province’s future—especially regarding a controversial energy deal and the public’s appetite for change.
As reported by CBC, the election was marked by a record-breaking margin in the popular vote for the Progressive Conservatives. Yet, voter turnout remained stubbornly low, a fact that continues to puzzle analysts and officials alike. Despite the surge in support for Wakeham’s party, many eligible voters stayed home on election day, raising questions about political engagement in the province. Still, women candidates held their own, maintaining a notable presence in the legislature and reflecting a slow but steady shift toward greater gender parity in Newfoundland and Labrador politics.
The most immediate and contentious issue facing the new government is the fate of a tentative energy agreement with Hydro-Québec. The deal, which was the centrepiece of the Liberals’ failed re-election campaign, would see Hydro-Québec pay significantly more for power from the Churchill Falls plant in Labrador. It also promised the development of new hydroelectric projects along the Churchill River—projects touted as transformative for the province’s economy. According to The Canadian Press, the Liberals claimed the agreement could bring in roughly $225 billion over the next 50 years, a staggering figure for a province with a population of about 545,000 and a projected net debt of $19.7 billion next year.
But the deal’s details quickly became a lightning rod for criticism. Energy watchers, political scientists, and even members of the oversight panel raised concerns about whether the agreement truly offered a fair return for Newfoundland and Labrador. Earlier this year, one member of the three-person oversight panel resigned, citing doubts about the panel’s independence. As political scientist Russell Williams of Memorial University put it, “If you’re going to say this is the best deal ever and in the future, the roads are going to be paved in gold, that should be able to stand the test of some independent kicking of the tires.”
Wakeham, for his part, made his stance crystal clear in his victory speech. “I will use that review to fix this deal or demand a better one,” he told supporters in western Newfoundland. “Given the generational stakes, I will not sign any deal that Newfoundlanders and Labradorians do not approve in a referendum.” With this pledge, Wakeham set the stage for a dramatic re-evaluation of the agreement, promising both an independent review and a public vote before any final signatures are inked.
The implications of this promise are significant—and immediate. Hydro-Québec and Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro have been deep in negotiations for months, aiming to finalize a binding agreement by April 2026. Now, the prospect of a review and referendum introduces a new layer of uncertainty. It’s not yet clear how this process will impact the timeline or the likelihood of a deal being struck at all. Jennifer Williams, CEO of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, acknowledged the shifting landscape in a statement congratulating Wakeham: “I look forward to connecting with premier-designate Wakeham in the days ahead to discuss how the crown electricity assets are integral to and contribute to the vision and plans for the province’s future.”
Hydro-Québec, meanwhile, struck a note of cautious optimism. “We remain confident that the current agreement is fair and beneficial for both parties,” spokesperson Lynn St-Laurent said in a statement. “Significant progress has been made in recent months toward a detailed agreement, and we remain fully committed to continuing negotiations with our partner, (Newfoundland and Labrador) Hydro.”
The political reverberations extend beyond Newfoundland and Labrador. Quebec Premier François Legault took to social media on October 15 to express his commitment to continued collaboration with the province. “Please be assured of our full commitment to continue our collaboration with Newfoundland and Labrador,” Legault wrote, while also congratulating Wakeham on his victory. But Quebec itself faces an uncertain political future, with Legault’s support plummeting and a provincial election looming next year. As Williams, the political scientist, observed, whoever forms Quebec’s next government—likely the Parti Québécois, according to current polls—may want different terms in any final arrangement. “Both parties could have ended up owning a lemon in that they couldn’t get that deal over the line, at least not in a way that enjoys broad support in (Newfoundland and Labrador),” Williams said.
The controversy over the energy agreement also played a pivotal role in the Liberals’ defeat. The party had staked its re-election hopes on the promise that the deal would be a game-changer for the province, finally providing the financial security needed to invest in health care, education, and debt reduction. But as skepticism mounted and the oversight process was called into question, that message lost its potency. Williams didn’t mince words, describing it as “nightmarishly stupid” for the Liberals not to have the draft deal evaluated by an independent expert before making it the centerpiece of their campaign.
Now, with a new government in place, the path forward is anything but certain. The Progressive Conservatives face the daunting task of balancing public expectations, economic realities, and the province’s long-standing skepticism about big energy projects. Wakeham’s decision to put the deal to a referendum is a bold move—one that could either secure a mandate for a revised agreement or send negotiators back to the drawing board.
Meanwhile, the broader story of the election—record support for the Progressive Conservatives, persistent low turnout, and the resilience of women candidates—offers a snapshot of a province in transition. Newfoundland and Labrador’s political landscape has shifted, but the challenges ahead remain formidable. As negotiations continue and the public prepares for a potential referendum, all eyes will be on how Wakeham and his team navigate the high-stakes energy debate that could define the province’s future for generations to come.
In the end, the 2025 election has left Newfoundland and Labrador at a crossroads—facing tough choices, big promises, and a renewed sense of scrutiny from both inside and outside the province.
