As the Czech Republic wrapped up its parliamentary elections on October 3 and 4, 2025, all eyes turned to billionaire Andrej Babiš—a figure as polarizing as he is influential. With his populist ANO party leading the polls, the country now faces a pivotal moment that could reshape its foreign policy, domestic priorities, and standing in the European Union. The outcome is not just a matter of which party holds power; it’s about whether the Czech Republic will stay the course as a staunch supporter of Ukraine and a reliable EU partner, or pivot toward a more nationalist, Euroskeptic, and potentially pro-Russian stance.
According to Reuters and multiple polling agencies, Babiš’s ANO party enjoyed a significant lead going into the elections, with the latest IPSOS poll showing 32.6% support—a 0.4 percentage point increase from August—while the ruling Spolu (Together) coalition, led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala, lagged behind at 21.1%. These numbers set the stage for what many are calling a renaissance of populist forces in Central Europe, echoing similar trends in Hungary and Slovakia.
For Ukraine, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The Czech Republic has been among Kyiv’s most steadfast allies since Russia’s full-scale invasion, providing military aid and advocating for tough EU sanctions on Moscow. But Babiš has made no secret of his skepticism toward continued support for Ukraine. As reported by UNN and the Financial Times, he criticized the Czech initiative to supply ammunition to Ukraine as “rotten” and too expensive for taxpayers, insisting funds would be better spent “on our own people.” He’s also pledged to abandon a program that secured 3.5 million artillery shells for Ukraine—an initiative widely seen as crucial for Kyiv’s defense capabilities.
The political scientist Dmytro Levus told UNN that “certain problems with a united front against Russia and with support for Ukraine can already be predicted” if Babiš and ANO return to power. Levus noted that Babiš regularly downplays the Russian threat and wants to pressure Ukraine to negotiate peace quickly. Prime Minister Fiala went even further, telling the Financial Times, “It is quite obvious that Babiš is helping Putin.”
The international implications don’t stop at Ukraine. Babiš has joined forces with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Austria’s Herbert Kickl to form the “Patriots for Europe” alliance in the European Parliament—a grouping defined by anti-migrant rhetoric, skepticism toward the EU’s climate policies, and a strong emphasis on national sovereignty. While Babiš denies sharing the Patriots’ “soft spot” for Russia, his platform includes reviewing the EU’s Green Deal, curbing immigration, and rejecting further military aid to Ukraine. He has also voiced opposition to increasing NATO spending and has questioned the alliance’s Article 5, which guarantees collective defense.
Despite his strongman image and populist promises, Babiš remains a complicated figure. He’s been dubbed “the Czech Donald Trump” by the Atlantic Council, due to his business background, anti-establishment rhetoric, and penchant for divisive campaigns. He first rose to power in 2017, winning 30% of the vote on an anti-immigrant, anti-corruption platform. Yet his tenure has been marred by scandals, including allegations of misusing EU subsidies for his “Stork’s Nest” farm and revelations in the Pandora Papers about offshore estate purchases. He settled a lawsuit last year over alleged collaboration with Communist-era secret police, but questions about his ethics linger. Furthermore, Babiš still faces fraud charges related to EU subsidies, and the new Parliament may have to lift his immunity for a court to issue a verdict.
Yet, for many Czech voters, these controversies seem less important than economic anxieties and dissatisfaction with the current government. Outgoing Prime Minister Petr Fiala, who led a coalition of three conservative parties, has struggled with low approval ratings—77% of Czechs distrust him, according to the Atlantic Council. His government’s efforts to hike taxes and pursue fiscal consolidation, while ending pipeline gas dependence on Russia and managing energy prices, failed to win over the public. Many saw his administration as more concerned with responsible governance than with addressing everyday struggles, ceding narrative ground to the emotional immediacy of populist and fringe parties.
This discontent has fueled the rise of not only Babiš’s ANO but also fringe parties like the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) and the far-left Stačilo! coalition. Both are critical of the EU and NATO, and neither sees Russia as a significant threat. The SPD, led by Tomio Okamura, has campaigned on anti-immigration, anti-EU, and anti-Ukraine aid platforms, while Stačilo! advocates for leaving both NATO and the EU altogether. These parties have tapped into public fears and resentments, especially regarding the high number of Ukrainian refugees in the country—the highest per capita in the EU. While 52% of Czechs support granting asylum to Ukrainians, 58% believe the country has already accepted too many, according to the Atlantic Council.
The election campaign itself was not without controversy. Experts from the Center for the Research of Online Risks reported that almost 300 fake TikTok accounts, using AI-generated video, spread pro-Russian propaganda and garnered 5–9 million views a week—more than the combined social media reach of major political leaders. Authorities are investigating the impact of this disinformation campaign, which many believe played a role in shaping public opinion ahead of the vote.
Despite his lead, Babiš is unlikely to govern alone, with projections suggesting he’ll secure about 30% of the vote. Coalition building will be essential. His potential partners range from the far-left Stačilo! alliance to the far-right SPD, both of which are skeptical of the EU and NATO and have little interest in maintaining the Czech Republic’s current foreign policy trajectory. Another possible ally, the right-wing Motorists for Themselves party, has vowed to reject EU environmental policies and focus on national sovereignty.
It’s worth noting that Babiš, whose Agrofert conglomerate receives EU subsidies, does not advocate leaving the EU or NATO outright. But critics warn that his willingness to form pacts with fringe parties could lead to significant changes—such as bringing public media under government control, rejecting EU migration agreements, and rolling back climate initiatives.
For now, the Czech Republic stands at a crossroads. The outcome of these elections will not only determine the country’s domestic agenda but also its role in Europe and the world. With populist forces on the rise and traditional parties on the defensive, the next government will have to navigate a landscape marked by economic uncertainty, information warfare, and the ever-present shadow of Russian influence. How it chooses to do so will shape the Czech Republic’s future for years to come.
