The Czech Republic’s political future took center stage this weekend as millions of voters cast their ballots in a pivotal two-day general election, one that could dramatically alter the country’s foreign policy and its place within the European Union and NATO. On October 3 and 4, 2025, polling stations across the nation buzzed with activity as approximately 8 million eligible citizens chose from a crowded field of 4,463 candidates representing 26 parties, according to Radio Prague International. The stakes? Nothing less than the direction of Czech foreign policy, support for Ukraine, and the country’s alignment within Central Europe.
At the heart of the contest was billionaire Andrej Babiš, the country’s former prime minister and leader of the populist ANO party. Nicknamed the “Czech Trump” for his brash style and business background, Babiš has become a lightning rod in Czech politics. His party, ANO (an acronym for “Action of Dissatisfied Citizens,” which also means “Yes” in Czech), has shifted further right in recent years, lambasting Brussels’ environmental and migration policies and questioning the extent of Prague’s support for Ukraine. Opinion polls ahead of the vote put Babiš on course for a comeback, with about 30% support—roughly 10% ahead of the pro-Western coalition led by incumbent Prime Minister Petr Fiala.
Babiš’s return would mark a significant shift for the Czech Republic, especially in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Prague has stood out as one of Kyiv’s staunchest backers, spearheading NATO-wide ammunition initiatives and sending tens of millions of dollars in support annually. The Czech Republic has also absorbed more Ukrainian refugees per capita than any other country, a point of both pride and political tension. But Babiš has repeatedly questioned whether this level of support serves Czech interests. As he put it outside a polling station in Ostrava, “We’ll succeed if we win and are able to create a one-party government.”
Yet the path to such a government is anything but straightforward. No party is expected to win an outright majority in the 200-seat lower house of parliament. In fact, Babiš’s ANO party would need more than 40% of the seats to govern alone—an unlikely scenario given current polling. This means coalition-building will be essential, and that’s where things get complicated. Babiš has ruled out forming a coalition with Fiala’s Civic Democrats (ODS), instead eyeing alliances with parties on both the far left and far right—some of which are openly anti-EU, anti-NATO, and even pro-Russian in orientation. According to Daniel Hegedüs of the German Marshall Fund, “It would be a nightmare scenario for international, European partners” if Babiš were to bring these parties into government. Their influence, he warned, could turn the Czech Republic into “a sort of naysayer” on EU support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.
Babiš’s foreign policy skepticism isn’t new. Last year, he joined forces with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to launch the “Patriots for Europe” alliance in the European Parliament, signaling a sharp break from the more centrist Renew group he once belonged to. The new alliance champions national sovereignty, opposes EU migration and climate policies, and has attracted members with pro-Russian leanings. While Babiš denies sharing their stance outright, he has openly questioned Czech initiatives to procure artillery shells for Ukraine and refused to fully endorse NATO’s push for increased defense spending.
Despite his controversies—including lingering allegations of collaboration with the Communist-era secret police and ongoing investigations into EU subsidy fraud—Babiš remains a resilient political force. His supporters, often seen sporting red “Czechia Strong” hats, see him as a champion of ordinary citizens’ grievances. As Jan Rafael Lupoměský, a former Czech presidential adviser, told The Associated Press, “He is like a sunflower. He is always turning his head towards the sun of political support from unhappy citizens.”
The timing of Babiš’s resurgence is no accident. The Czech economy, once dubbed the “tiger” of Eastern Europe, has stagnated in recent years. Rising energy costs, persistent inflation, and public frustration over the government’s perceived inaction have created fertile ground for populist appeals. Meanwhile, concerns about the Ukraine war are mounting. While few Czechs wish to see a Russian victory—memories of the 1968 Soviet invasion remain fresh—nearly two-thirds now fear the conflict will drag on indefinitely, and only 44% hope for a clear Ukrainian win.
Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s government, a coalition of five center-right parties, has struggled to meet voters’ expectations since taking office in 2021. Promising reforms and stability after the pandemic-era upheavals of Babiš’s previous term, Fiala’s administration has been criticized for failing to deliver meaningful change, particularly on the economy. His approval rating has slumped to around 30%, among the lowest in Europe, and support for his coalition trails ANO by more than ten points. “They didn’t change anything,” Lupoměský said. “They didn’t put through any important reforms. They just didn’t meet expectations.”
Babiš’s transactional approach to politics—prioritizing Czech interests and seeking to shift more of the burden for Ukraine onto European partners—has resonated with many voters. He has pledged to keep the Czech Republic out of the euro area and to resist what he sees as overreach from Brussels. At the same time, observers note that Babiš is more pragmatic than ideological. With most of his business interests in Western Europe, he has a personal stake in maintaining good relations with the EU and NATO. “He’s a businessman,” Lupoměský noted, “and his business is mostly in Western countries, so he has a big personal interest in keeping those good relations.”
The election also saw a record number of Czech nationals registered to vote abroad—more than 24,000—with nearly half casting ballots by mail, reflecting the high stakes and widespread engagement. As the polls closed on October 4 at 12:00 GMT, counting began immediately, with early results expected later that evening. The outcome, observers say, could reshape not only the Czech Republic’s political landscape but also the broader balance of power in Central Europe, as Hungary and Slovakia have already charted a more Russia-friendly course.
For now, all eyes are on the coalition talks and the horse-trading that will determine the next government. Will Babiš’s “sunflower” politics tilt Prague eastward, or will pragmatism and economic self-interest keep the Czech Republic anchored in the Western camp? The answer, as always in Czech politics, may lie somewhere in between.
