With just over two weeks until New York City voters head to the polls, the race for City Hall has taken on a fevered pitch, as new polling data and a series of heated debates have thrown the contest into sharp relief. On October 20, 2025, a fresh poll from Gotham Polling & Analytics and AARP revealed that Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani maintains a commanding lead over his rivals, former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa. But as the campaign enters its final stretch, the numbers suggest the race could tighten dramatically under the right circumstances—setting the stage for a nail-biting finish.
According to the Gotham/AARP poll, Mamdani currently holds 43.2% of the vote, with Cuomo trailing at 28.9% and Sliwa in third at 19.4%. The poll, conducted between October 14 and 15 among 1,040 likely general election voters in New York City, also found that 8.4% of voters remain undecided. This survey follows an August poll that had Mamdani leading by 18 points, showing consistency in his frontrunner status, but also suggesting that his margin could be narrowing as Election Day approaches (as reported by The New York Post and other outlets).
Yet, the poll also presents a tantalizing what-if scenario: if Curtis Sliwa were to exit the race, Mamdani’s lead would shrink to just 3.9 points—44.6% for Mamdani versus 40.7% for Cuomo—a difference that falls within the poll’s margin of error. This would set up a virtual dead heat between the left-leaning Mamdani and the more centrist Cuomo, raising the stakes for every undecided voter. As Stephen Graves, president of Gotham Polling & Analytics, put it, “The decisive factor in this race may be the older voters who haven’t yet made up their minds.”
Older New Yorkers, in fact, are emerging as the election’s wild card. The poll indicates that 78% of undecided voters are aged 50 or older—a demographic historically known for its high turnout and reliability at the ballot box. Beth Finkel, AARP New York State Director, emphasized, “Voters age 50 and older make up the vast majority of those still undecided, and as the most reliable voting bloc, they will determine who leads this city.” She added, “Older New Yorkers are feeling the strain of rising costs and limited housing options and their priorities are clear: affordability, safety, and leadership that restores confidence in New York’s direction.”
Cost of living has emerged as the single most pressing issue, cited by 63.6% of respondents, followed by concerns about public safety (48.6%) and housing affordability (38.9%). These issues transcend age groups, but they weigh especially heavily on the city’s older adults, who are feeling the pinch of rising expenses and limited options for affordable living. As Finkel noted, “These are issues that matter not only to older adults and to New Yorkers of every generation.”
While the numbers tell one story, the campaign trail has been anything but quiet. The first of two mayoral debates last week saw Cuomo, Sliwa, and Mamdani spar over the city’s sanctuary status and the fate of undocumented immigrants. According to WABC, Cuomo pledged to “assign an attorney to every person undergoing review and put the full weight of the city government behind it to make sure they are legally protected.” Sliwa, for his part, argued that the city should “protect migrants who are essential workers and let ICE go after the drug dealers, gangsters, sexual predators and those who are sex trafficking.” Mamdani, meanwhile, doubled down on the need for more legal representation and pressed the city to “stand up to President Trump.”
The field is defined by its contrasts. Mamdani, a 33-year-old state assemblyman from Queens, is a self-described socialist and practicing Muslim who was born in Uganda before settling in New York. His campaign has been buoyed by a surge of young voters—tens of thousands of them, according to recent reports—making the electorate nearly evenly split between younger and older New Yorkers. Mamdani’s progressive stances, including his criticism of Israel and refusal to condemn Hamas, have raised eyebrows in some quarters, particularly among city political insiders and segments of the Jewish community.
Cuomo, at 67, brings a very different résumé. The former governor and HUD secretary is running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani in June 2025. Cuomo has repeatedly hammered Mamdani’s lack of experience, saying during a recent debate, “Voters don’t buy Mamdani’s divisive, extreme politics or believe that a 34-year-old who’s never held a real job is ready to run the greatest city in the world.” His campaign has portrayed Sliwa as a spoiler, with Cuomo declaring on WABC 770 AM, “The problem is Curtis Sliwa is a spoiler in the race. A vote for Curtis Sliwa is really a vote for Mamdani.”
Sliwa, 71, is no stranger to New York’s political theater. The founder of the Guardian Angels and a former radio talk show host, Sliwa has run for mayor before and is known for his tough-on-crime rhetoric. He’s dismissed calls to exit the race, telling Fox News, “I’m not dropping out. One person, one vote. That’s how we determine elections. I never heard a caveat that said one person, one vote, and of course others need to drop out along the way.” His campaign spokesperson, Daniel Kurzyna, has accused the Cuomo camp of panic and poll manipulation, stating, “Curtis is running to win and he will win on Nov. 4.”
The tension between the camps is palpable. Mamdani’s team has accused Cuomo of seeking help from President Donald Trump and billionaire donors after losing the primary, a charge Cuomo has denied. As Mamdani’s spokesperson Dora Pekec put it, “Andrew Cuomo wanted a one-on-one in the primary and he got one – where he got beaten so badly now he’s calling Trump and his billionaire donors for a lifeline.” Mamdani himself has welcomed Sliwa’s presence in the race, saying, “It’s genuinely positive for our democracy that there’s another candidate in this race who believes New York City voters should pick their next mayor, not billionaires who mostly live somewhere else.”
The next debate, scheduled for Wednesday, October 22, promises to ratchet up the drama even further. With cost of living, public safety, and housing affordability dominating the conversation, and with undecided older voters holding the keys to City Hall, the outcome remains anything but certain. As Election Day draws near, all eyes are on New York, where a contest marked by generational divides, ideological clashes, and high-stakes rhetoric is about to reach its crescendo.
