Pierre Poilievre is back in Ottawa, but the path that led him there was anything but straightforward. After losing his long-held Carleton seat to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy in the April 2025 general election, Poilievre found himself in the unfamiliar position of being a party leader without a seat in Parliament—a scenario that rattled both his supporters and critics alike. Yet, as of August 18, 2025, Poilievre has reclaimed his place in the House of Commons, thanks to a decisive victory in the Alberta riding of Battle River–Crowfoot. According to preliminary results from Elections Canada, he garnered a commanding 80.4% of the vote, marking a triumphant return for the Conservative leader.
"Getting to know the people in this region has been the privilege of my life," Poilievre told a rapturous crowd on Monday night, as reported by BBC. His words reflected both gratitude and relief. More than 50,000 ballots were cast from nearly 86,000 eligible voters, a strong turnout for a rural riding that has long been a Conservative stronghold. The by-election itself was unusual, featuring a record 214 candidates—many associated with a protest group pushing for electoral reform—forcing voters to use write-in ballots. Despite the unconventional circumstances, Poilievre's victory was never in serious doubt, though it was not without its detractors. Independent candidate Bonnie Critchley accused Poilievre of treating the riding as "nothing more than a means to an end." Poilievre, for his part, insisted to the Calgary Herald that he had canvassed "like he was one vote behind," adding, "I believe in humility and earning people's trust."
This win comes at a critical juncture for Poilievre and the Conservative Party. The April election was a stunning reversal of fortune for the Conservatives, who, at one point, led Mark Carney's Liberals by as much as nineteen points in national polls. According to a June 24 Nanos Research poll, Carney's Liberals now lead the Conservatives 45% to 31%, with Carney himself preferred as prime minister by nearly 29%. The numbers reflect a shift in public sentiment and a honeymoon period for Carney, but the gap is significant enough to raise questions about the Conservatives' future direction and Poilievre's leadership.
Inside the party, frustration has been brewing. Four consecutive election losses, debates over the party's ideological direction, and criticism of Poilievre's leadership style have all contributed to a sense of unease. Some have even labeled him "yesterday's man," suggesting his moment has passed. Yet, as columnist Michael Taube observed in the National Post, "He’s determined to return to a position where the country looks to him once more as a future prime minister, and there are a few good reasons to think he still can."
Poilievre is no stranger to adversity. When he became Conservative leader in September 2022, skeptics doubted his ability to defeat Justin Trudeau. His leadership style was often described as brash and polarizing, but his ability to communicate—especially on issues like affordable housing, cryptocurrency, and government "gatekeepers"—helped him broaden the party’s appeal. For over two years, the Conservatives outperformed the Liberals in the polls, opening a seven-point gap by September 2023 and stretching it to nineteen points by February 2024. The party’s fortunes, however, were upended by external events—most notably, the election of Donald Trump in the United States and the ensuing trade war, which shifted the political landscape and eroded the Conservative lead.
Despite losing his seat, Poilievre led the Conservatives to their best electoral showing since Brian Mulroney in 1988. Now, as he returns to Parliament, he faces a vastly different political environment. The fundamentals, however, remain in his favor. Coming from a modest, middle-class Prairie background, Poilievre is well-positioned to contrast himself with Carney—a former central banker with stints at Goldman Sachs, Brookfield Asset Management, and Bloomberg. Poilievre can credibly argue that he understands the economic hardships faced by ordinary Canadians, especially as affordability and housing remain top concerns. A July 3 Abacus Data poll commissioned by the Canadian Taxpayers Federation found that only 32% of Canadians believe the government is on track on affordability, and just 30% on housing. More than half think Ottawa is making less progress than expected or hasn't even started.
Poilievre plans to challenge Carney’s $486 billion spending plan when Parliament resumes in the fall. He’s expected to link it to what he calls the Liberals’ record of fiscal excess, arguing that it is out of sync with the financial pressures Canadians are facing, from mounting personal debt to increased food bank use. "If economic conditions don’t improve fast, that doubt could harden into broader distrust of the Liberal government," the National Post noted. A recent Léger poll found that 65% of respondents don’t buy Carney’s promise to balance the budget in three years—a potential opening for Poilievre to exploit.
Beyond Parliament, Poilievre is set to embark on what political insiders call the "summer BBQ circuit," reconnecting with Canadians, especially in his new Alberta riding. He aims to re-energize a disappointed Conservative base and win back support from non-traditional constituencies: younger voters, working-class Ontarians, and Atlantic Canadians who showed increased support for the Conservatives this year. In Western Canada, he’ll focus on advancing pipelines, defending the oil sands, and addressing regional priorities. Poilievre knows he can’t take this support for granted—he must reassure separatists that national unity remains a priority.
One of the most persistent criticisms Poilievre faces is the suggestion that he is a Canadian version of Donald Trump. Both he and his team have worked to distance themselves from the former U.S. president. Trump himself, in a series of interviews earlier this year, dismissed any close association: "I think his biggest problem is he’s not a MAGA guy, you know? I mean, he’s really not... a Trump guy at all," Trump told The Spectator on February 28. Later, on Fox News, Trump said Poilievre is “stupidly no friend of mine,” and that “I think it’s easier to deal actually with a Liberal.” On April 30, Trump remarked, "They both hated Trump, and it was the one that hated Trump I think the least that won. I actually think the conservative hated me much more than the so-called liberal. He’s a pretty liberal guy."
Poilievre has also pushed back against Trump’s trade policies. On March 26, he criticized the “unjustified and unprovoked tariffs that President Trump has now announced against our auto sector,” arguing that “they will damage his workers and his economy, just as they will damage ours. We must retaliate and target goods and services that we don’t need, can buy elsewhere, or make ourselves to maximize the impact on the Americans while minimizing the impact on ourselves.”
Looking ahead, Poilievre faces a mandatory leadership review in January, where Conservative party members will decide his fate at the national convention. For now, he’s focused on rebuilding momentum and drawing sharp contrasts with Carney’s Liberals. As he returns to a Commons that looks very different from the one he left, Poilievre’s challenge is clear: turn frustration into momentum and prove that yesterday’s man still has plenty of days ahead.
