In a political earthquake that has sent shockwaves through Wales and the wider United Kingdom, Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle clinched victory in the Caerphilly by-election on October 23, 2025. Whittle’s win, with a commanding 47% of the vote and a majority of 3,848, marked the first time in over a century that Labour failed to secure this seat—a constituency they had held since 1910. The result is not just a local upset; it signals a broader transformation in British politics as the traditional dominance of Labour and the Conservatives faces unprecedented challenges from emerging parties.
The by-election, triggered by the death of a Labour legislator, became a battleground for competing visions of Wales’ future. Plaid Cymru, a left-of-center nationalist party, seized the moment, while Reform UK, led by the ever-controversial Nigel Farage, surged into second place with 36% of the vote. Labour, once the unshakeable force in Welsh politics, plummeted to third, securing only 3,713 votes—down from 13,289 in 2021. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats fared even worse, with just 2% and 1.5% of the vote respectively, according to Arab News.
Beyond the numbers, the campaign and its aftermath exposed deep fissures in the political and social landscape. Reform UK’s campaign, which placed immigration squarely at the center of its messaging, became the focal point for both support and backlash. Just a day after the by-election, Reform’s Caerphilly office was vandalized with white spray paint reading, “Now u can f*** off home,” as reported by investigative journalist Will Hayward and documented in photographs that quickly went viral on social media. Swastikas and racist graffiti also marred campaign posters, and Reform candidate Llyr Powell’s home was targeted in a late-night attack, leading to heightened security at party headquarters.
Powell, undeterred by the intimidation, expressed his gratitude to supporters: “I am grateful to every voter who went to the ballot box and voted Reform—despite the fear and attacks that have been put against them by the other parties.” He condemned what he described as “very dark” tactics, recounting, “They attacked my door in the middle of the night. At the office, we had to have security there. There were a lot of things that went on in this campaign that was very dark.” Reform’s leadership, including Nigel Farage, pointed fingers at hostile rhetoric from opponents, with Farage warning that Labour leader Keir Starmer’s words “directly threaten the safety of our elected officials and campaigners.”
The toxic atmosphere, fueled by accusations of far-right extremism and counter-claims of left-wing intimidation, has left many in the former mining town of Caerphilly reeling. The graffiti, which included swastikas and the word “RACISTS!” scrawled over Powell’s image, capped off a fortnight of nocturnal door-knock intimidations and round-the-clock security for Reform’s campaigners. Gwent Police were approached for comment, but no arrests have been reported, deepening concerns about the escalation of political hostility in the region.
Amid the turmoil, Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle, a political veteran who has stood in Caerphilly elections since 1983, hailed her victory as a “reset” for Welsh politics. Party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth echoed the sentiment: “The message from Caerphilly is clear: Wales is ready for new leadership, and Plaid Cymru is leading the way.” Whittle did not mince words in her message to Labour: “You are on your way out after 100-plus years,” urging them to “get back to the drawing board.” Even First Minister Eluned Morgan acknowledged the scale of the defeat, calling it a “bad result” but vowing that Labour would “come back stronger.”
The implications of the by-election extend far beyond Caerphilly. As noted by Andrew Hammond of the London School of Economics in Arab News, the result is part of a broader trend toward multiparty politics in the UK. For more than a century, Labour and the Conservatives have dominated, but their combined share of the vote is now at historic lows. In Caerphilly, the three parties that have governed in Westminster since the 1850s—Labour, the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats—together secured less than 15% of the vote. This fragmentation mirrors changes seen in other European democracies and suggests that the UK may be entering an era of unpredictable coalitions and shifting alliances.
Media coverage of the by-election has itself become a flashpoint. According to Left Foot Forward, the mainstream media, and particularly the BBC, has faced criticism for focusing interviews and attention on Reform UK’s representatives rather than on Plaid Cymru’s victorious candidate. BBC Wales Politics journalist Teleri Glyn Jones was even quoted as saying, “We’ve grabbed you as the winner of this but actually the rest of this room’s media is going to the person who came second, Llŷr Powell from Reform. What do you think that tells us?” This imbalance has drawn ire from commentators and Plaid supporters, who see it as a symptom of wider issues in media impartiality. A recent study found that Reform, with only five MPs, featured in 25% of BBC news bulletins, while the Liberal Democrats, with 72 MPs, appeared in just 17.9%.
The significance of Plaid Cymru’s win is underscored by its timing. With the May 2026 Senedd elections on the horizon, both Plaid and Reform are riding waves of momentum. Reform’s strong showing, despite not winning, positions it as a formidable challenger, while Plaid’s triumph signals that Welsh voters are open to alternatives after decades of Labour dominance. As one Reform insider put it, “They’ll hate it when we win here in May,” signaling confidence that the party’s influence is only set to grow.
Yet, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. The collapse of Labour’s vote—from nearly 13,300 in 2021 to just over 3,700—has left the party scrambling for answers. Meanwhile, the rise of nationalist and populist parties, coupled with the increase in political intimidation and toxic rhetoric, has many observers worried about the health of Welsh and UK democracy.
As the dust settles in Caerphilly, one thing is clear: the old certainties of Welsh and British politics are crumbling. With the next Senedd elections looming, all eyes will be on whether this by-election marks the beginning of a new era—or just the first tremor in a much larger political upheaval.
