Plaid Cymru’s seismic victory in the Caerphilly by-election on October 24, 2025, has sent shockwaves through the British political landscape, challenging long-held assumptions about party dominance in Wales and raising questions about media representation and political momentum. The Welsh independence party’s win marks the end of more than a century of Labour control in Caerphilly, a result that has ignited both celebration among supporters and intense scrutiny of the BBC’s coverage of the event.
For over 100 years, Labour’s grip on Caerphilly went unbroken. But on a brisk Friday, voters handed Plaid Cymru a decisive win, with their candidate securing a majority of 3,848 votes. According to BBC reports, the swing from Labour to Plaid Cymru was nearly 27 percent—a dramatic shift by any standard. Polling expert Sir John Curtice described the result as evidence that "Labour is in severe trouble in Wales," underscoring the magnitude of the upset.
Labour’s woes extended beyond Wales. In the same by-election, Reform UK, led by former UKIP leader Nigel Farage, surged into second place with candidate Llyr Powell amassing 12,113 votes—a staggering leap from just 495 votes four years prior. Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe, meanwhile, trailed in third with 3,713 votes, down sharply from 13,289 in 2021. The Conservative candidate, Gareth Potter, managed only 690 votes, while the Greens and Liberal Democrats received 516 and 497 votes, respectively.
Cabinet Office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds did not mince words when admitting the setback for his party. "Labour’s loss was disappointing," he conceded, pointing to what he termed a "fractured political landscape" in the UK. The numbers tell a stark story: Labour’s support in Caerphilly has plummeted, and the party now faces what Thomas-Symonds called a "very tough fight" ahead.
The reverberations of Plaid Cymru’s win were felt immediately—not just in political circles but across the media landscape. The BBC, in particular, found itself at the center of a social media storm after Plaid Cymru was not represented on its flagship political programme, Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, just two days after the historic result. The show’s October 26 lineup included Health Secretary Wes Streeting, shadow home secretary Chris Philp, barrister Marina Wheeler, journalist Mike Shear, and an interview with former US presidential candidate Kamala Harris, but not a single representative from Plaid Cymru.
The omission did not go unnoticed. Social media erupted with criticism, with many users calling the decision "odd" and suggesting the BBC was ignoring a pivotal moment in Welsh politics. Journalist Gerry Hassan remarked on Twitter/X, "Normal service resumed on #BBCLaurak. The old boy's club of the once two big parties getting prime slots despite only winning 13% in the recent Caerphilly by-election. And why after their victory no Plaid Cymru?" Aaron Bastani, co-founder of Novara Media, echoed the sentiment, writing, "Plaid Cymru winning a by-election in a place that voted Labour for a century? It never happened." Another user commented, "It’s like a rather important by-election in Caerphilly never happened."
Some critics speculated that had Reform UK won, the BBC would have rushed to include them. One pointedly asked, "V odd: no Plaid Cymru. If Reform had won as so many pundits were excited about I'm sure you would have had them on. Philp sounds as tho he [could] be Reform. Are you going to discuss (or even acknowledge) that more of that electorate voted left rather than populist right?"
In response to the outcry, a BBC spokesperson defended the organisation’s coverage. "The Caerphilly by-election has been widely covered across the BBC, including interviews with Lindsay Whittle and the party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth, as well live updates on the BBC website as Whittle was officially sworn in," the spokesperson stated. "The result was discussed this morning on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg with Wes Streeting who was questioned on Labour’s poor performance in the contest during his interview. The programme interviewed Plaid Cymru’s leader two weeks ago during their party conference, when he was also interviewed by other BBC outlets. We’ll continue to cover the story where editorially relevant."
The BBC’s explanation did little to quell the criticism, with many suggesting that the moment of Plaid Cymru’s victory warranted more immediate and prominent representation on the network’s flagship political show. The situation revived memories of earlier controversies, such as when Green Party leader Zack Polanski’s interview was postponed due to breaking news about the Manchester synagogue attack—an interview that was eventually rescheduled after public complaints.
Beyond the media debate, the political implications of the Caerphilly result are profound. Reform UK’s surge in the by-election is part of a broader trend. In the 2024 general election, the party beat the Conservatives into second place in Whitehaven and Workington and pushed them close in Penrith and the Solway and in Carlisle. According to polling cited by BBC and other outlets, if a general election were held today, Reform UK would win a majority with 352 seats, Labour would secure 107, the Liberal Democrats 74, and the Conservatives just 31. These numbers reflect a political landscape in flux, with traditional loyalties upended and new forces on the rise.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice and other analysts have pointed to the high turnout in Caerphilly—over 50 percent—as evidence that voters are engaged and willing to shift allegiances in search of new representation. For Plaid Cymru, the victory is not just a local triumph but a signal that Welsh independence and alternative voices are resonating with a growing segment of the electorate.
Labour’s challenges are not confined to Wales. In Cumbria, polls suggest Reform UK could win a majority of seats in the next election, further eroding Labour’s traditional strongholds. The party’s decline in industrial heartlands and rural areas alike has prompted much soul-searching among its leaders and supporters.
Meanwhile, the BBC’s editorial decisions continue to spark debate about the role of public broadcasters in reflecting the shifting political realities of the UK. The tension between established parties and emerging challengers, and between traditional media practices and the demands of a rapidly changing audience, is unlikely to subside soon.
As the dust settles from Caerphilly’s dramatic by-election, one thing is clear: the political map of Wales—and perhaps the UK as a whole—is being redrawn before our eyes. Whether the BBC and other institutions can keep pace with these changes remains to be seen, but for now, Plaid Cymru’s victory stands as a historic marker of a new era in Welsh and British politics.
