The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals squared off at Busch Stadium on August 28, 2025, in what shaped up to be a pivotal series finale with plenty at stake for both sides. After dropping the series opener in dramatic walk-off fashion, the Pirates roared back to claim consecutive victories, setting up a chance to clinch their first series win in St. Louis since September 2023. For the Cardinals, the contest offered a shot at salvaging a split in the four-game set and keeping their slim postseason hopes alive.
First pitch was scheduled for 2:15 p.m. ET, with the game broadcast live on SportsNet PT and FDSMW. The betting odds reflected a tightly contested matchup: St. Louis entered as a modest -123 favorite on the moneyline, while Pittsburgh was priced at +101 as the underdog. The over/under for total runs hovered around 8 to 8.5, with sharp bettors leaning toward the under given recent pitching performances and mild playing conditions.
The Pirates, sitting at 59-75, had already secured back-to-back wins—an 8-3 rout on August 26 and a nail-biting 2-1 triumph on August 27, the latter fueled by a clutch two-run single from Tommy Pham in the sixth inning. That victory put Pittsburgh in the driver’s seat for the series and gave them a shot at finishing 8-5 against the Cardinals for the season, a marked turnaround after being swept at Busch in May but sweeping St. Louis at PNC Park in July.
Managerial strategy was on full display as the Pirates rolled out four lineup changes for the finale. Bryan Reynolds, fresh off a stint at designated hitter earlier in the series, returned to that role and slotted in third in the batting order. Jack Suwinski, making his 12th start in right field this season, batted seventh. Joey Bart took over catching duties from Henry Davis and hit sixth, marking his eighth time in that spot for 2025. Liover Peguero replaced Jared Triolo at shortstop, batting eighth, while Spencer Horwitz returned to the leadoff role for the 30th time this year. Nick Gonzales moved up to fourth in the order, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa held down third base and the ninth spot in the lineup. Oneil Cruz, recently back from injury, made his third consecutive start in center field and batted fifth, while Tommy Pham, the previous night’s hero, moved up to second.
On the mound for Pittsburgh was rookie right-hander Braxton Ashcraft, making his fifth start of the season and his first ever against the Cardinals. Ashcraft had been nothing short of sensational in his last two outings, allowing just one run and four hits over his past 10 innings. His previous start, a 9-0 win over the Rockies on August 22, saw him surrender only one hit and one walk in five innings, striking out a career-high six batters on 65 pitches. Heading into this game, Ashcraft boasted a 4-2 record, a 2.70 ERA across 46.2 innings, 43 strikeouts to 14 walks, a .233 opponent batting average, and a 1.18 WHIP. His poise and command had quickly earned him a reputation as a rising star in the Pirates’ rotation.
Opposing him was veteran righty Miles Mikolas, tasked with steadying the ship for St. Louis. Mikolas had struggled recently, giving up four runs on 10 hits in just 2 2/3 innings against Tampa Bay prior to this matchup and surrendering a total of seven runs over his last 7 2/3 frames. For the season, his numbers painted a challenging picture: a 6-10 record, a 5.17 ERA, and a 1.36 WHIP. Still, Mikolas had shown the ability to limit damage on occasion, and the Cardinals were banking on a bounce-back performance to keep their series hopes alive.
The Cardinals, at 65-69, entered the game as favorites not just by the bookmakers but by recent history in such scenarios. They’d been favored in 61 games this season, winning 31 of them, and held a 24-21 record when the moneyline was at least -122. Their offense was led by Alec Burleson, batting .288 with 16 home runs and 60 RBI, and Willson Contreras, who paced the team with 19 homers and 73 RBI. Masyn Winn and Lars Nootbaar rounded out a lineup capable of power but prone to inconsistency. The Cardinals averaged 4.7 runs per game over their last 10 contests, but their pitching staff’s 5.07 ERA in that span underscored ongoing struggles on the mound.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, had thrived in the underdog role lately, going 3-3 as dogs in their last six tries and posting a 7-3 record over their last 10 games overall. Their offense was anchored by Bryan Reynolds (66 RBI), Oneil Cruz (team-high 18 home runs), and Andrew McCutchen, who brought veteran presence and a .239 average to the lineup. Isiah Kiner-Falefa led the team with a .270 batting average, while Nick Gonzales and Tommy Pham contributed timely hits throughout the series. The Pirates’ pitching had been a bright spot, with a 2.55 ERA and 9.9 K/9 over the previous 10 games, a testament to the staff’s recent dominance.
Betting angles for the game were hotly debated. Some experts predicted a high-scoring affair, with one outlet projecting a 5-4 Cardinals win and the total going over 8 runs. Others, however, pointed to sharp money backing the under, citing both teams’ recent run of low-scoring games (finals of 7-6, 8-3, and 2-1 in the series) and the solid recent form of both starting pitchers. The consensus among sharp bettors was that the Under 8.5 represented the best value on the board, especially with Ashcraft’s emergence and Mikolas’ potential to rebound.
As the game got underway, fans from both cities tuned in with high hopes. Would the Pirates finally break their Busch Stadium curse and claim their first road series win over the Cardinals in nearly two years? Or would St. Louis’ home-field advantage and veteran lineup find a way to turn the tide? With both teams jockeying for pride and momentum as the season entered its final stretch, every pitch and at-bat took on added significance.
Regardless of the final score, the series showcased the unpredictable beauty of baseball—a sport where momentum can shift in an instant, and underdogs always have a fighting chance. As the afternoon unfolded at Busch Stadium, one thing was certain: both the Pirates and Cardinals left everything on the field, delivering a contest that kept fans and bettors alike on the edge of their seats.
