Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre is back in Ottawa’s political spotlight after a landslide victory in the Battle River-Crowfoot by-election, held on Monday, August 18, 2025. The by-election, triggered by the resignation of former Member of Parliament Damien Kurek in June, saw an unprecedented 200-plus candidates vying for the seat, but only seven represented traditional political parties. Poilievre’s win marks a dramatic return to Parliament after losing his longtime Ottawa-area seat to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy in the April 28, 2025, general election.
Poilievre’s choice to contest Battle River-Crowfoot—a sprawling rural seat in Alberta known as a Conservative stronghold—was strategic. According to reporting by The Globe and Mail, the riding has historically sent Conservative candidates to Parliament with as much as 83% of the vote. This time, Poilievre mirrored that margin, securing about 40,000 votes. His closest competitor, independent Bonnie Critchley, managed 5,013 votes, while Liberal Darcy Spady trailed with just under 2,200. The sheer scale of Poilievre’s win left little doubt about his support within the Tory base.
Following his victory, Poilievre posted a triumphant video on X (formerly Twitter), captioned “Back in the saddle.” Prime Minister Mark Carney, who succeeded Justin Trudeau earlier in 2025, publicly congratulated Poilievre on X, writing, “Congratulations to Pierre Poilievre on returning to the House of Commons and gaining the honour of representing the people of Battle River-Crowfoot in Parliament.” Carney also extended thanks to all other candidates who participated in the by-election, a gesture that independent candidate Sarah Spanier called “a class act” on Facebook.
In his victory speech, Poilievre wasted no time in criticizing the Liberal government’s record. “This incredible region, and its amazing people, that have suffered terribly over the last 10 years,” he said, “claiming Liberal policies have sent crime and housing costs spiralling out of control.” He continued, “[Liberals] promised recently that things would be different. But under Mr. Carney, and his 157 days in office, they’ve only gotten worse.” Poilievre pledged that, “this fall, as Parliament returns, [Conservatives] will not only oppose out-of-control Liberal inflation, crime, immigration, cost of living and housing crisis, but we will propose real solutions for safe streets, secure borders, a stronger and sovereign country with bigger take-home pay for our people.” He concluded, “We will put Canada first, and we will do so in a way that will make our country self-reliant, and make our people capable of earning paycheques that buy affordable food and homes in safe neighbourhoods.”
Yet, despite the overwhelming margin, some commentators and pundits have questioned the broader significance of Poilievre’s return. On a livestream roundtable hosted by Rebel News on August 20, panelists including Ezra Levant and Derek Fildebrandt debated whether the by-election would actually shift the balance of power in Ottawa. Levant remarked, “Now what? I think Mark Carney has a de facto majority, the NDP and Bloc are going to back him as if it’s a majority. It’s going to be another four years.” He predicted worsening conditions, from immigration to taxes, and even a possible recession and trade war. Fildebrandt, representing the Western Standard, was skeptical that even a Conservative win in a general election would fundamentally change Canada, arguing, “At this point, I think the changes that we need are so radical, fundamental, and constitutional that no one would be willing to do them.”
Prime Minister Carney, meanwhile, has been under fire for what critics see as a lackluster start to his tenure. According to Rebel News, Carney has faced increasing criticism for failing to secure a new trade deal with the United States, stalling pipeline projects, and not passing meaningful legislation in his first months in office. These issues have added to the sense of frustration among many on the right, who see the current government as stagnant and unresponsive to Canada’s economic and social challenges.
Despite Poilievre’s clear popularity in the Battle River-Crowfoot riding, national sentiment about his leadership is far more divided. A recent Angus Reid poll, as reported by CTV News on August 21, 2025, found that half of Canadians would be “ashamed” to call Pierre Poilievre Prime Minister. This striking statistic underscores the deep polarization in Canadian politics and signals that, while Poilievre has a strong base, he may face significant hurdles in broadening his appeal nationwide.
Since taking over the Conservative Party leadership in 2022, Poilievre has enjoyed periods of robust polling, earning praise from international figures like Elon Musk and surprising many with his resonance among younger voters. However, as noted by The Globe and Mail, much of his advantage was tied to Justin Trudeau’s waning popularity. The transition to Mark Carney at the Liberal helm, against the backdrop of Donald Trump’s turbulent second term in the U.S., exposed vulnerabilities in Poilievre’s support, especially among the youth.
Political analysts have pointed out that Poilievre’s approach remains rooted in market-fundamentalist orthodoxy, reminiscent of the 1990s. He has consistently advocated for tax cuts and deregulation as solutions to Canada’s woes, while largely avoiding criticism of Donald Trump—a notable contrast to other Conservative leaders like Ontario Premier Doug Ford. Critics argue that Poilievre’s reluctance to embrace new industrial policies or adapt to a shifting global economy could limit his effectiveness. As populist intellectual Oren Cass recently observed, “the Conservative Party there is far behind the Republican Party in its realignment … on the basics of political economy, [Poilievre] hasn’t moved far.”
There are also concerns about the impact of Poilievre’s leadership on the next generation of Conservative politicians. Figures like MP Jamil Jivani, who align more closely with post-neoliberal currents, have been conspicuously left out of Poilievre’s inner circle. Some worry that this could have a chilling effect on the party’s ability to evolve and attract new voices, leaving it reliant on the same anti-elite sentiment and opposition tactics that characterized the Trudeau years.
Looking ahead, Poilievre faces a party leadership review in January 2026. Most observers expect him to pass this test with ease, given his entrenched support within the Tory base. However, the question remains: can he translate regional dominance and internal party strength into a broader national mandate? With a Liberal government still firmly in control—thanks to support from the NDP and Bloc Québécois—Poilievre and his Conservatives may find themselves waiting for the current administration to lose popularity, rather than steering the national agenda themselves.
For now, Pierre Poilievre’s return to Parliament is both a testament to his tenacity and a reflection of the enduring divides within Canadian politics. Whether his brand of conservatism can adapt to a rapidly changing world—or whether it will remain a relic of the past—remains to be seen as the country heads toward its next political crossroads.
