The Philadelphia Phillies find themselves at a crossroads as the 2025 MLB season barrels toward its final stretch. After a stinging sweep by the New York Mets on August 28, the Phillies’ once-comfortable lead in the NL East has been tested, and the loss of ace Zack Wheeler to a season-ending blood clot has left the team’s pitching staff in flux. With the postseason looming and no off days until September 2, the organization faces a critical decision: should they turn to their top prospect, Andrew Painter, for a late-season spark, or ride out the campaign with their current rotation?
The Phillies’ rotation, already under scrutiny, has been forced to adapt quickly. Wheeler, diagnosed with venous thoracic outlet syndrome, was ruled out for the season—a gut punch for a club with World Series aspirations. As MLB insider Jim Bowden wrote, “The Phillies now know that they’ve lost Wheeler for the season due to venous thoracic outlet syndrome, a huge blow to a team that’s well-positioned to get back to the World Series. However, if there is one team that can overcome the loss of a pitcher like Wheeler, it’s the Phillies.”
Philadelphia’s current starting five—Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola, and Taijuan Walker—have all shouldered increased responsibility. Sánchez, in particular, shined in June and July, but August has been less kind to him. The rotation’s lefty-heavy composition has prompted talk that Nola’s resurgence could be the key to restoring balance, especially heading into the playoffs. As Bowden noted, “The Phillies’ rotation is now lefty-heavy with Sánchez, Suárez and Luzardo as arguably their top three current starters, so Nola returning to form would give them a proven righty and better balance for a postseason run.”
But the conversation in Philadelphia has shifted to the possibility of calling up Andrew Painter, the organization’s number one prospect. At just 22 years old and a former 13th overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, Painter has been honing his craft in Triple-A with the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs. His numbers—4-5 record, 5.11 ERA, 90 hits allowed, 38 walks, and 87 strikeouts across 86.1 innings—may not leap off the page, but the Phillies’ schedule and Wheeler’s absence create a compelling case for his promotion.
The Mets, meanwhile, have set the standard for boldness with recent call-ups of young arms Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong. Despite Philadelphia maintaining a four- to five-game cushion over New York in the NL East, the pressure is mounting. The Phillies’ lack of rest days before September 2 only intensifies the need for fresh arms. As The Sporting News argued, “Philadelphia should also call him up because they don’t have an off day until September 2. They should have Painter get some MLB experience before the end of the season and start a couple of games to taste what the level is like.”
Manager Rob Thomson now faces a delicate balancing act: keep the rotation afloat through the dog days of late August and early September, while also preparing for the high-stakes chess match of playoff baseball. Thomson, who has been praised for his adaptability, must decide whether to trust his veterans or inject new blood into the mix. The Phillies’ postseason hopes may hinge on his choice.
In the midst of this uncertainty, a fascinating statistical narrative has emerged regarding Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. According to a recent analysis, Nola and Wheeler possess a Similarity Score of 957.8, the highest for either pitcher. This metric, developed by baseball statistician Bill James, measures how closely players compare across a range of categories—wins, losses, ERA, innings pitched, and more. The numbers are striking: Wheeler has 113 career wins to Nola’s 106, 75 losses to Nola’s 86, and a career ERA of 3.28 compared to Nola’s 3.8. Their innings pitched (1728.1 for Wheeler, 1679.1 for Nola) and strikeouts (1820 for Wheeler, 1841 for Nola) are nearly identical. Both have been with the Phillies for 11 years, and their roles as rotation anchors have been crucial to the franchise’s recent success.
Yet, the perception of the two pitchers couldn’t be more different. Wheeler is widely regarded as the staff ace—consistent, dominant, and a postseason force with a 2.18 ERA over 12 playoff appearances. Nola, on the other hand, is seen as something of an enigma: brilliant at times, but plagued by inconsistency. He allows 1.1 home runs per nine innings compared to Wheeler’s 0.86, and his performance can swing wildly from ace-caliber to meltdown. Still, as the analysis notes, “Nola has brought a tremendous amount of production to the Phillies. Per similarity score, his closest peers after Wheeler are Kyle Hendricks and Yu Darvish; not true aces, perhaps, but excellent hurlers all the same.”
Wheeler’s recent dominance has been particularly valuable during the Phillies’ current contention window. Over the past five seasons, Wheeler has posted 26.7 fWAR (Wins Above Replacement, per FanGraphs), while Nola has contributed 17.7 fWAR in the same span. Wheeler’s reliability has been a stabilizing force, but with him sidelined, the Phillies must hope Nola can rise to the occasion and recapture his top form.
The debate over Andrew Painter’s readiness adds another layer to the team’s predicament. While his Triple-A stats suggest he’s still developing, the Phillies’ need for a sixth starter to navigate a relentless schedule is hard to ignore. With no off days until September 2, giving Painter a taste of big-league action could pay dividends—not just for the present, but for the club’s future as well.
Philadelphia’s rivals are not standing still. The Mets’ aggressive promotion of young pitchers signals their intent to chase down the division leaders. The Phillies, meanwhile, must weigh the risks and rewards of matching that boldness. Is it better to give Painter valuable experience now, or to shield him from the pressure cooker of a playoff race?
As the regular season winds down, the Phillies’ ability to adapt may determine their fate. With a lefty-heavy rotation, the return to form of Aaron Nola—a right-hander statistically closest to Wheeler—could be the key to postseason balance. At the same time, the decision to call up Andrew Painter could inject new life into a weary staff. The choices made in the coming days will shape not only the Phillies’ playoff push, but potentially the trajectory of the franchise for years to come.
For now, the NL East race remains alive, the Phillies’ lead intact but vulnerable. The next week promises drama, tough decisions, and perhaps a glimpse of the future in Andrew Painter. Stay tuned—this story is far from over.
