Philadelphia Phillies fans have had plenty to cheer about this season, but the team’s pitching staff has become a hot topic as the regular season barrels toward its conclusion. While right-hander Aaron Nola has struggled to find his old form, lefty Ranger Suárez is putting together one of the most dominant stretches of his career—just as the Phillies need it most.
Nola, once the Phillies’ ace and a National League All-Star back in 2018, has endured a season he’d probably like to forget. His 2025 campaign has been marred by inconsistency and injury. Across 69 innings pitched, Nola has posted a 3-8 record, a bloated 6.78 ERA, and a 1.51 WHIP. Those numbers aren’t exactly what you’d expect from a pitcher with Nola’s pedigree, and they were especially glaring in his latest outing against the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday night. Nola surrendered five earned runs without recording a single out and ultimately allowed six total over five innings—a tough pill to swallow for any competitor.
"I've just got to stay healthy and keep on working,” Nola admitted after the game, according to MLB.com’s Paul Casella. “I’ve got to limit the big innings, no question about it. I've got to stop giving up so many runs, and [start] being on the attack mode and making better pitches.”
The Phillies’ manager, Rob Thomson, remains steadfast in his support of Nola, despite the right-hander’s recent woes. “Full confidence. Really,” Thomson told reporters on September 4, 2025. “I always have confidence in him, because he's always prepared and he competes. The bright lights don't affect him.” That kind of unwavering faith is crucial in a clubhouse chasing a World Series title, especially with the postseason looming and the Phillies perched atop the National League East with an 80-59 record, a comfortable 5.5-game cushion over the second-place New York Mets.
Nola’s struggles have been compounded by injury. He spent three months on the injured list this season nursing a right ankle sprain. Since returning to action, his numbers haven’t improved—his ERA over four starts since the comeback sits at a staggering 8.38. With Cy Young Award candidate Zack Wheeler sidelined for the rest of the year due to a blood clot, the Phillies’ need for Nola to rediscover his magic is more urgent than ever.
Yet, while Nola’s season has been a rollercoaster, Ranger Suárez has quietly emerged as one of the best pitchers in baseball. Suárez, a 29-year-old lefty, made his 2025 debut on May 4 and has been lights-out ever since. In 131 innings pitched since his return, Suárez has posted a sparkling 3.02 ERA and 3.06 FIP. His 3.6 fWAR since May 1 ties him with Garrett Crochet, putting him in elite company—only Tarik Skubal, Cristopher Sánchez, and Paul Skenes have posted higher marks in that span, all likely Cy Young frontrunners.
Suárez’s dominance isn’t just about the traditional stats, either. He’s one of only 23 pitchers to throw at least 100 innings in each of the past five seasons, ranking fourth in ERA (3.22), seventh in FIP (3.42), and ninth in fWAR among those arms. That’s even more impressive considering he’s logged the fewest innings of the group, thanks to a handful of short-lived injury stints—three since 2022, all related to his back. Whether it was spasms, soreness, or tightness, none of those setbacks kept Suárez off the mound for long.
What makes Suárez stand out this season is his uncanny ability to induce weak contact. Of the 377 batted balls he’s allowed in 2025, a whopping 32.4% have registered at or below 80 mph in exit velocity. His average exit velocity allowed sits at just 85.6 mph, and his hard-hit rate is a minuscule 30.2%, both leading all starting pitchers this year. That means hitters just aren’t squaring him up, and the numbers back it up: opponents’ line drive rate against Suárez has dropped to 19.9%, the eighth-lowest among 111 pitchers with at least 300 batted balls allowed this season.
Suárez’s pitch mix has played a big role in his success. His changeup has been especially devastating, holding opponents to a .189 batting average and a .258 slugging percentage, with a 35.1% whiff rate. His cutter, meanwhile, has generated a slew of weak fly balls that have helped keep his ERA down. Despite a slight dip in his groundball rate—down to 46.7%, still good for the 73rd percentile among qualifiers—he’s managed to induce more “lazy” fly balls and popups, most of which are harmless outs.
Comparisons to other impending free agent starters only highlight Suárez’s value. The 2025-2026 free agent class is stacked with arms like Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Michael King, Zac Gallen, Brandon Woodruff, and Shane Bieber. But Suárez, entering his age-30 season, stands out for his youth, durability (despite minor recurring back issues), and his mastery of weak contact. In fact, his 2025 average exit velocity and hard-hit rate rank among the best seen in recent years—only Zack Wheeler’s 2021 campaign for the Phillies had a lower average exit velocity on fly balls and popups since 2020.
While some of his free agent peers face questions about their health or home run susceptibility, Suárez’s profile is remarkably steady. Cease and Gallen, for instance, allow more fly balls and see a higher percentage of those leave the yard. Michael King, another master of soft contact, is coming off major knee and shoulder injuries that limited his 2025 campaign. Framber Valdez, though dominant, is nearly two years older and allows a higher average exit velocity—his hard-hit rate on fly balls is the highest among the group over the past five seasons.
Suárez’s ability to keep the ball in the yard is another feather in his cap. Only 7.3% of his fly balls have resulted in home runs this year, a far cry from the 12-14% rates seen by Cease and Gallen. That kind of reliability is gold for any contender, and it’s a big reason why Suárez could be one of the most sought-after pitchers on the market this winter—even if he isn’t the flashiest name available.
As the Phillies march toward October, the contrast between Nola’s struggles and Suárez’s ascent couldn’t be more stark. With Wheeler out for the season, the onus is on Nola to rediscover his groove, but it’s Suárez who has become the anchor of the rotation. The Phillies’ hopes for a deep postseason run may well hinge on both pitchers—one searching for redemption, the other cementing his place among the game’s elite.
With the regular season winding down and the postseason picture coming into focus, all eyes in Philadelphia will be on the mound. If Nola can return to form and Suárez continues his dominant run, the Phillies could be poised to chase their first championship in 17 years. The journey is far from over, but the storylines couldn’t be more compelling as the team sets its sights on October glory.
