After weeks of mounting tension and deadly border clashes, Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to extend their fragile ceasefire, a move facilitated by intense diplomatic efforts led by Turkey and Qatar. The announcement, made on October 31, 2025, by Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar, follows a series of high-stakes negotiations in Istanbul that many observers describe as both a breakthrough and a test of regional resolve.
The talks, which began with a first round in Doha and culminated in Istanbul from October 25 to October 30, were anything but straightforward. According to The Media Line, the initial discussions in Doha produced a ceasefire agreement on October 19, providing a brief respite after a spate of violence along the border that left dozens dead and major trade routes shuttered. But as the Istanbul round unfolded, hopes for a lasting deal appeared to waver. On October 29, Pakistan declared the talks unsuccessful, blaming the Afghan side for the impasse. Yet, in a dramatic turn, dialogue resumed the very next day at the request of the host government, with both sides agreeing to extend the ceasefire pending further talks.
“Afghanistan, Pakistan, Türkiye and Qatar held meetings in Istanbul from 25–30 October 2025 aimed at solidifying the ceasefire agreed by Afghanistan and Pakistan in Doha on 18–19 October 2025, with the mediation of Türkiye and Qatar,” reads the joint statement reported by Azernews. The statement confirms that all parties have agreed to continue the ceasefire, but with critical caveats: the truce is neither open-ended nor unconditional, and its continuation hinges on Afghanistan’s ability to prevent its territory from being used by militants to launch attacks into Pakistan.
Pakistan’s position is clear. As an official from Islamabad’s Foreign Office told DND News Agency, “Pakistan reaffirms its commitment to peace and stability on its western border but equally stresses that this ceasefire is neither open-ended nor unconditional.” The official emphasized that the “single litmus test” for the truce’s survival is Afghanistan’s action against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other militant entities. Islamabad expects “credible evidence of action, including dismantling militant hideouts, disrupting logistical channels, arresting or prosecuting leadership, and transparent reporting through the agreed monitoring and verification mechanism.”
This mechanism—a joint monitoring and verification system—will be the subject of a principal-level meeting scheduled for November 6, 2025, in Istanbul. According to Azernews, the system is designed to ensure maintenance of peace and impose penalties on any party found in violation. The hope among diplomats is that this tool will bring much-needed transparency and accountability to a border region long plagued by suspicion and violence.
Yet, even as diplomats shake hands, the reality on the ground remains fraught. On the night between October 29 and 30, Pakistan’s army killed Qari Amjad, a top TTP commander, during an attempted infiltration from Afghanistan. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the army’s media wing, reported that four militants, including Amjad—a man with a five-million-rupee bounty on his head and a U.S. State Department global terrorist designation—were killed in Bajaur district near the border. This operation, carried out just as ceasefire talks were underway, highlights the persistent threats and the razor-thin margin for error facing both governments.
From Kabul, the Taliban government has sought to project an image of diplomatic engagement and goodwill. Afghan spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid described the Istanbul talks as “a complex process,” but one that ended with an understanding to meet again and resolve pending issues. He praised Turkey and Qatar for their mediation, stating that “the Islamic Emirate believes in diplomacy and had engaged in the process with sincerity and patience.” Mujahid added that Afghanistan seeks “friendly ties with Pakistan based on mutual respect, noninterference and peaceful coexistence.”
However, the Afghan side now faces mounting pressure to deliver on its promises. Pakistan’s security establishment remains wary, with officials and analysts alike warning that the ceasefire’s extension is more a sign of fatigue than of newfound trust. “Pakistan enters this phase in good faith, but also with realism: past patterns of border violence demonstrate the need for sustained implementation, not only formal commitments,” a senior Foreign Office official told DND News Agency. The message from Islamabad is blunt: “Peace is our preference; protection of Pakistan’s territorial integrity is non-negotiable.”
Turkey and Qatar, meanwhile, have emerged as indispensable mediators. Both countries maintain close diplomatic and economic ties with Afghanistan’s de facto rulers, while enjoying cordial relations with Pakistan. Their involvement, as a retired Pakistani Federal Secretary told Azernews, “provides a moderating influence at a time when prudence and dialogue are of paramount importance.” For Ankara and Doha, maintaining the current, if fragile, status quo serves multiple purposes: preserving diplomatic leverage, sustaining humanitarian engagement in Afghanistan, and preventing further destabilization along Pakistan’s western frontier. A return to open conflict, they warn, would not only threaten regional security but could also undermine broader diplomatic and developmental investments.
Regional observers are quick to point out that the ceasefire’s extension does not erase the deep mistrust between Islamabad and Kabul. The threat of renewed violence remains ever-present, especially if the Taliban fails to clamp down on the TTP and other militant networks operating along the border. The joint monitoring mechanism, while promising, is untested—and its effectiveness will depend on both sides’ willingness to share information and accept impartial oversight.
For now, Pakistan has pledged to keep its forces on alert, making it clear that any continued attacks from Afghan soil will be met with a forceful response. Afghanistan, for its part, is expected to show “clear, verifiable and effective steps” against militants, as demanded by Islamabad. The next round of talks in Istanbul will be crucial, not just for the fate of the ceasefire, but for the broader stability of a region that has seen far too many false dawns.
In a landscape where every word and gesture is scrutinized for signs of sincerity or duplicity, the coming weeks will test whether this latest truce is a genuine step toward peace or merely a pause before the next round of hostilities. The region, and the world, will be watching closely.
