The countdown is on for one of cricket’s most storied rivalries as Australia and England prepare to lock horns in the Ashes series, beginning November 21, 2025, at Optus Stadium in Perth. With history, pride, and a legacy of fierce competition on the line, this year’s series is shaping up to be a battle of pace, tactics, and, perhaps, the end of an era for one of Australia’s most beloved cricketers.
On the eve of the series, legendary cricket analyst Kerry O’Keeffe has stirred the pot with his bold prediction: “I think Australia wins 3-2. I think there’ll be five results. England don’t do draws and only weather can prevent a result.” According to O’Keeffe, the five-Test showdown will be dictated not by the spinners, but by the pace attacks of both sides. “Both teams are loaded with fast bowlers—fast bowlers took 145 wickets last summer against India and spinners just 19. Spinners aren’t a factor if the curators produce the same sort of pitches, which I think they will.”
This forecast has particular resonance for Nathan Lyon, Australia’s greatest off-spinner, who enters the series with 562 Test wickets since his 2011 debut—just one shy of surpassing Glenn McGrath’s 563 and moving into second on Australia’s all-time wicket-takers list, behind only the late Shane Warne’s 708. At 37, Lyon has been the subject of persistent retirement speculation, and this Ashes may well be his final home campaign in the Baggy Green.
Yet, O’Keeffe is adamant that Lyon won’t be the difference-maker this summer. “Lyon is a quality bowler but he needs conditions and he didn’t quite get them last year (against India). I think he might have been frustrated he took nine wickets in the series because conditions favoured pace. I think we are going to see the same. I don’t think spin is going to be a real factor this summer.” O’Keeffe’s assessment isn’t limited to Lyon—he expects England’s spinners, including newcomer Shoaib Bashir and part-time all-rounder Will Jacks, to be similarly marginalized. “They’ll try and take him down straight away, Shoaib Bashir, if he plays. It’ll be an all-out assault on Bashir.”
The focus, instead, will be on the fast bowling arsenals. Australia’s quartet of Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, and Scott Boland are well credentialed, and England is bringing a pace-heavy squad featuring Mark Wood, Jofra Archer, Gus Atkinson, Josh Tongue, Matthew Potts, and Bryden Carse. O’Keeffe points out, however, that durability is a concern: “The fast bowlers that start won’t finish, so it’s how they’re managed throughout the series. None of them (England’s bowlers) will play all five Tests.”
England’s build-up to the series has drawn sharp criticism from cricket legend Ian Botham, who slammed the tourists’ decision to play only a single three-day warm-up against the England Lions at Lilac Hill before the Perth opener. “I’m worried. We are going to wander in and have a little game with the ‘A’ team. Not one (state match), which borders on arrogance. You’ve got to give yourself the chance. The conditions are different when you play cricket in Australia: the sun, the heat, the bounce, the crowd, the Aussie players...you’ve got to get used to all that. You are (also) not playing against the Australian cricket team, you’re playing against Australia—24.5 million people.”
Botham’s concerns extend to the fitness of England’s fast bowlers, particularly after injury-plagued years for Mark Wood, Jofra Archer, and Ben Stokes. “Bowlers don’t get fit in gyms, that’s been proven. Look at the record with injuries—(Mark) Wood, (Jofra) Archer, Ben Stokes...they don’t play enough. You get fit by playing. If it goes horribly wrong, Mark Wood breaks down in the first game or Jofra Archer does or Ben can’t bowl, we are suddenly chasing the eight-ball before we’ve started. It is a worry.”
Despite the skepticism from pundits, Nathan Lyon remains upbeat and focused on the challenge ahead. “I don’t really look at myself as a GOAT,” Lyon said at Kayo Sports’ Summer of Cricket Launch, displaying his trademark humility. But when it comes to the Ashes, he doesn’t shy away from the rivalry: “England, for me as an Australian cricketer, the pinnacle. I thoroughly enjoy bowling in Australian conditions, so I’m pretty excited about the summer.” Lyon also addressed the comments from England’s Joe Root, who suggested this summer marks England’s best chance to win a series in Australia since his debut. “I’ll leave Joe and his thoughts to himself. I’d be concerned if he was coming out here as one of the best batters in the world thinking that they weren’t confident.”
The anticipation is heightened by selection dilemmas for Australia, particularly at the top of the batting order. Marnus Labuschagne’s domestic form puts him in contention to open or return to No. 3, while the presence of all-rounders Beau Webster and Cameron Green adds further intrigue. O’Keeffe believes there’s room for both. “Webster’s won seven Tests and Australia’s won six. He’s done so well. England will target him. They think defensively he’s vulnerable. But he keeps playing in winning teams and that’s a real factor. If you’ve got Cameron Green and Beau Webster in the slips, you’re catching everything. That’s a factor as well. Australia’s got to catch well to beat England and those two don’t drop things.”
Pitch conditions will be under the microscope, especially after Lyon’s recent comments about the WACA surface during a first-class match. “If I’m being honest, it wasn’t the best pitch I’ve ever played on. It was a very naughty wicket. It was wet with a big divot in it, so quite challenging even though I got 40-runs on it. I’m expecting a much better wicket over in Optus Stadium that’s for sure.” The hope is that Perth’s deck will provide enough for the bowlers and set the tone for a gripping series opener.
As the Ashes approach, the narrative is clear: two proud cricketing nations, both with points to prove and legacies at stake, will do battle in a series where pace is expected to reign supreme. For Nathan Lyon, the coming weeks may well define his place in Australian cricket folklore—whether as a tireless workhorse in the background or as the man who, even in the twilight of his career, finds a way to tip the balance in the Ashes’ greatest theatre.
With the first ball yet to be bowled, fans on both sides of the divide are left wondering: will pace truly dominate, or can experience and guile still carve out a decisive role? All eyes now turn to Perth, where history is waiting to be written.
