Ivory Coast’s political landscape shifted once again this weekend as President Alassane Ouattara appeared poised to secure a fourth term in office. The 83-year-old incumbent’s commanding lead in the October 25, 2025, presidential election was confirmed by early results and the concession of his main remaining challenger, Jean-Louis Billon. For many Ivorians, the outcome seemed almost preordained, but the path to this moment has been anything but smooth.
On Sunday, October 26, former commerce minister Jean-Louis Billon acknowledged what early tallies had already made clear: "The initial results place the incumbent President, Mr. Alassane Ouattara, in the lead, designating him the winner of this presidential election," he said, offering his congratulations to Ouattara. Billon’s concession, reported by Pulse Ghana and Reuters, came as the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) began releasing partial results live on national television. By then, Ouattara had secured a sweeping advantage across multiple regions—especially in his traditional northern strongholds, where he was winning upwards of 90 percent of the vote, according to AFP and Al Jazeera.
Turnout figures told a nuanced story. While nearly nine million Ivorians were eligible to vote, the IEC president Ibrahime Coulibaly-Kuibiert put overall turnout at around 50 percent—roughly matching the 2020 election. In the north, participation was robust, but in southern opposition bastions and parts of the economic hub Abidjan, polling stations were often nearly empty. In Gagnoa, the former stronghold of ex-president Laurent Gbagbo, Ouattara won 92 percent of the vote, but turnout was a mere 20 percent, as reported by AFP.
For some, the low turnout in key regions was no surprise. The election was marked by the absence of two of Ouattara’s main rivals: Laurent Gbagbo and former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam. Both were barred from running—Gbagbo due to a criminal conviction and Thiam because he had acquired French nationality. Their exclusion, and their calls for a boycott, contributed to what William Assanvo of the Institute for Security Studies described as "a significant demobilisation of the electorate." The opposition, fractured and under-resourced, struggled to mount a credible challenge. Billon, who failed to gain the endorsement of Thiam’s Democratic Party of Ivory Coast (PDCI), was left as one of just four opposition candidates, none of whom had the financial muscle or national profile to threaten Ouattara’s dominance.
The run-up to the election was anything but peaceful. In the weeks before voting, opposition calls for protest led to deadly unrest, with at least eight people killed and nearly two dozen injured in election-related violence at some 200 polling stations, according to Al Jazeera and AFP. The government responded by deploying 44,000 security forces and imposing night-time curfews in sensitive areas. While the vote itself was largely calm, the heavy security presence and memories of past violence—especially the 2010-2011 post-election crisis that claimed more than 3,000 lives—hung over the proceedings.
As the results trickled in, the country’s newspapers reflected its divided mood. The pro-Ouattara Patriote lauded "a calm election" and declared, "The Ivorians said NO to prophets of doom." In contrast, the opposition daily Notre Voie lamented "an election reflecting a divided country." The opposition quickly declared that they would not recognize Ouattara’s legitimacy and called for new elections, underscoring the deep rifts that persist in Ivorian politics.
International observers and local analysts alike noted the controversial nature of Ouattara’s long rule. The president, a former IMF deputy managing director, first came to power in the aftermath of the 2010-2011 crisis. Since then, he’s presided over a period of relative economic stability and growth—Ivory Coast remains the world’s top cocoa producer and has largely avoided the coups and jihadist threats that have destabilized much of West Africa. Still, critics accuse him of increasingly authoritarian tendencies, pointing to the exclusion of key rivals and the harsh repression of opposition protests in recent months.
Despite the controversy, the IEC’s preliminary results left little doubt about the outcome. "From the initial results, it’s clear the incumbent is leading by a wide margin in many of the areas so far," reported Ahmed Idris of Al Jazeera from Abidjan. The IEC continued to count ballots from various districts and Ivorian communities abroad, but the trend was unmistakable. If the preliminary results are confirmed, Ouattara will begin his fourth term at the age of 83, cementing his place as one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders.
The fractured opposition, meanwhile, faces a period of soul-searching. Billon’s concession was gracious, but he and the other candidates, including former first lady Simone Ehivet Gbagbo, lacked the backing of a major party or the resources to mount a serious campaign. Their inability to unite behind a single challenger or to mobilize disaffected voters left Ouattara with a clear path to victory.
For ordinary Ivorians, the day after the vote brought a return to near-normalcy in Abidjan, which had been unusually quiet over the weekend. The capital’s markets and streets buzzed once again, even as the country awaited the IEC’s final declaration of results, expected within five days of the election. Yet beneath the surface, questions lingered about the future: Can Ouattara use his renewed mandate to heal the country’s divisions, or will the cycle of exclusion and protest continue?
As the dust settles, one thing is clear: the 2025 presidential election has reinforced both the strengths and the fault lines of Ivorian democracy. With a veteran leader set for another term, and a fractured opposition left to regroup, the coming months will reveal whether Ivory Coast can move beyond its political impasses or remain trapped in the patterns of its recent past.
