The 2025 college football season has been nothing short of unpredictable, with upsets and shake-ups redefining the playoff landscape week after week. As the dust settles following a wild Week 6, the College Football Playoff (CFP) picture is starting to take shape, but if this season has taught us anything, it’s that nothing is set in stone. Miami, Oregon, Indiana, and Oklahoma are all at the heart of the latest debates, with ESPN analysts and betting experts weighing in on what’s to come. Let’s break down the key storylines driving the conversation as the CFP race intensifies.
Miami’s stock is soaring after an impressive start to the season. According to a panel of 10 ESPN writers, the Hurricanes have an average projected CFP seed of 2.5, and every single analyst gave them a first-round bye in their 12-team playoff predictions. That’s a testament to Miami’s consistency and the respect they’ve garnered across the college football world. David Hale, who covers the ACC, was the only writer to go a step further, slotting Miami as his top overall seed. The rest of the panel was split: six pegged Miami as a three-seed, while three gave them the nod as a two-seed.
But who might the Hurricanes face in their CFP quarter? Indiana and Oklahoma are the most common picks for highest seed in Miami’s playoff bracket, with Indiana earning the nod from five ESPN writers as a six- or seven-seed. Three others picked Oklahoma, while Alabama and Texas A&M each received a single mention. The debate doesn’t end there—potential opponents for Miami’s road game include Georgia (four votes), Missouri (two), and single votes for Georgia Tech, LSU, Memphis, and Tennessee. Of these, only Indiana and Oklahoma remain undefeated, making their upcoming games crucial in determining the playoff field.
Indiana’s journey is about to hit a major crossroads. The Hoosiers are scheduled to travel to Eugene for a top-10 showdown with the Oregon Ducks on October 11—a game that has captured the national spotlight. ESPN’s College GameDay, which many expected to feature the Red River Rivalry between Oklahoma and Texas, instead announced it will broadcast from Oregon for this high-stakes clash. The decision was influenced by Texas’s disappointing 29-21 loss at Florida, which dropped the Longhorns to 3-2 and took some shine off the rivalry. Adding to the intrigue, Oklahoma’s star quarterback John Mateer remains sidelined with injury, leaving the Sooners’ offense in the hands of backup Michael Hawkins Jr. This uncertainty further diminished the appeal of the Red River Rivalry for the GameDay crew.
The Oregon-Indiana matchup is more than just a battle of top-10 teams—it’s a pivotal moment for both programs’ playoff aspirations. Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers are coming off a dominant win over Illinois and look every bit like a playoff contender. Dan Lanning’s Ducks, meanwhile, have already notched a statement victory over Penn State, and experts view them as one of the most balanced teams in the nation. The winner in Eugene will emerge with a 6-0 record and a perfect 3-0 mark in league play, putting them squarely in the playoff driver’s seat.
Betting experts are also watching this game closely. Thomas Casale, a SportsLine college football analyst, notes that Oregon opened as a 10-point favorite at home. However, sharp bettors have already jumped on Indiana at +10, and Casale predicts the line could settle closer to Oregon -8 by kickoff. "If you plan to bet Indiana, take the 10 points early. If you like the Ducks in this matchup, wait for a better number. I would consider the Ducks at -8 or less," Casale advised. His assessment underscores just how tight this contest is expected to be—and how much is at stake for both programs.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s path is anything but straightforward. The Sooners face a gauntlet of SEC opponents down the stretch, and their playoff fate may hinge on John Mateer’s health. Casale highlighted the quarterback’s Heisman-caliber play before his injury and suggested that Oklahoma would have been favored over Texas if Mateer were available. Instead, Texas is a three-point favorite, and with both teams boasting strong defenses, points could be at a premium. Casale recommends grabbing Texas -3 early, but notes, "Touchdowns should be hard to come by with Hawkins and the struggling Arch Manning facing two of the better defenses in college football."
The ripple effects of last week’s upsets are still being felt. Penn State’s shocking loss to previously winless UCLA sent shockwaves through the postseason projections. ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach have both adjusted their brackets accordingly, with Penn State dropping out of the playoff conversation. Bonagura’s first-round games now feature Oklahoma as a No. 5 seed hosting Memphis, while Schlabach has Oklahoma as a No. 6 seed facing LSU. Both analysts agree on the top four teams earning first-round byes: Ohio State, Oregon, Miami, and Ole Miss. The quarterfinals are set for December 31 and January 1 at iconic venues like the Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl.
Miami’s schedule gives them a favorable outlook, but nothing is guaranteed. The Hurricanes narrowly missed another Top 25 win after Louisville fell to Virginia, but they’ll get another shot when they host Louisville on October 17 following their second bye in two weeks. That game marks the start of a grueling seven-game stretch to close out the regular season. If Miami can navigate that gauntlet unscathed, their place in the top four will be all but assured.
For Indiana, the road ahead is equally challenging. After Oregon, the only remaining Top 25 opponent on their schedule is Penn State—now reeling after back-to-back losses. Oklahoma, on the other hand, faces five more SEC teams that were ranked in the AP Top 20 as of Week 6. The Sooners’ resilience will be tested, especially if Mateer’s injury lingers.
As for the broader playoff picture, the new 12-team format has injected even more excitement—and unpredictability—into the season. The top four teams receive byes, while the remaining eight battle it out on campus sites. From there, quarterfinals and semifinals unfold in New Year’s Six bowls, culminating in the national championship at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium on January 19, 2026. With so many contenders still in the hunt and upsets lurking around every corner, fans are in for a thrilling ride.
With Week 7 looming, all eyes turn to Eugene, where Oregon and Indiana will fight for playoff positioning on the national stage. Miami, Oklahoma, and a host of SEC powers are right behind them, eager to seize any opportunity that comes their way. One thing’s for sure: in the 2025 college football season, expect the unexpected as the playoff race enters its most critical stretch yet.
