Oil prices rebounded on Thursday, August 21, 2025, climbing by 1 percent per barrel, as the world’s attention turned to the latest twists in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the uncertain path toward peace. According to Business Post, Brent crude settled at $67.67 a barrel—a gain of 83 cents or 1.2 percent—while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $63.52, up 81 cents or 1.3 percent. The uptick comes after a period of volatility, with traders weighing the impact of political developments, shifting military dynamics, and signals from the US Federal Reserve on the global economy.
At the heart of the market’s anxiety is the faltering peace process between Russia and Ukraine. Both nations, as reported by Reuters, have traded blame for the impasse, with Russia launching a major air attack near Ukraine’s border with the European Union on Thursday. Ukraine, in turn, claimed to have struck a Russian oil refinery, escalating tensions and keeping energy markets on edge. The situation remains fraught, with no clear diplomatic breakthrough in sight.
US President Donald Trump, who just last week met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska and subsequently hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders at the White House, has made headlines by ruling out the deployment of US troops on the ground in Ukraine. In an interview with Fox News, Trump stated, “When it comes to security, (Europeans) are willing to put people on the ground. We’re willing to help them with things, especially, probably … by air.” The president’s comments, echoed by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, clarified that while US boots would not be on Ukrainian soil, air support remained “an option and a possibility.”
The specifics of such air support remain vague, with possibilities ranging from missile defense systems to enforcing a no-fly zone. Trump himself admitted in a separate radio interview that his negotiating style is “probably instinct more than process,” underscoring the uncertainty that continues to roil global markets and diplomatic circles alike.
Following the White House summit, Russia launched its largest air assault in over a month, according to the Ukrainian air force, deploying 270 drones and 10 missiles. The strikes caused major fires at energy facilities in central Poltava, home to Ukraine’s only oil refinery, as reported by Ukraine’s energy ministry. The attacks highlight the ongoing devastation wrought by the conflict, which analysts say has killed or wounded more than 1 million people since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy called the recent White House talks “a major step forward” toward ending Europe’s deadliest conflict in 80 years. He floated the idea of a trilateral summit with Putin and Trump, and discussions of possible venues have ranged from Budapest—where Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban maintains close ties with Putin—to Istanbul and neutral Switzerland. Trump, for his part, expressed doubt about attending such a summit himself but said, “If necessary, I’ll go.”
The diplomatic dance is delicate. Hungary, one of the few European countries Putin could visit without fear of arrest on International Criminal Court charges, is seen as a possible host. Yet it remains unclear whether Ukraine would accept Budapest as a venue. In the meantime, Ukraine’s allies have continued to meet in the so-called Coalition of the Willing format, discussing additional sanctions to ramp up pressure on Russia and working with US counterparts to develop security guarantees for Ukraine. NATO military leaders were also set to meet, with US General Dan Caine expected to participate virtually, further underscoring the international stakes at play.
Russian President Putin, however, has shown no sign of relenting. After his recent summit with Trump, he reiterated that Russia would not tolerate NATO troops in Ukraine and has maintained his demands for territory—including land not currently under Russian military control. According to Neil Melvin of the Royal United Services Institute, both sides are “tiptoeing around Trump” to avoid being seen as the obstacle to peace, but the lack of concrete commitments has left analysts skeptical. “Trump’s statements on security guarantees were so vague it’s very hard to take it seriously,” Melvin told Reuters.
Against this geopolitical backdrop, oil traders are also watching economic signals from the United States. The Jackson Hole economic conference kicked off Thursday, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled to speak on Friday. Investors are eager for any hints about a possible interest rate cut next month, which could influence global demand for oil and other commodities.
Meanwhile, US crude stockpiles fell by 6 million barrels in the week ended August 15, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Commercial stockpiles now stand at 420.7 million barrels—6 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. The American Petroleum Institute had reported a contraction of 2.4 million barrels earlier in the week, reinforcing signs of strong demand despite the broader uncertainty.
In Nigeria, the oil and gas sector faces its own set of challenges and opportunities. The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) recommended that private operators take a majority stake in the country’s refineries, following the Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas model, to drive efficiency and reduce political interference. “Government must divest majority control of the refineries, just as in the NLNG model, where private partners hold 51 percent while government retains 49 percent,” said PENGASSAN President Festus Osifo at a summit in Abuja. He warned that Nigeria’s 37 billion barrels of crude reserves risk remaining untapped if production continues to hover around two million barrels per day.
Osifo also called for oil revenues to be reinvested in infrastructure, education, and healthcare, citing Dubai’s transformation as a model to emulate. He praised the recent marginal field bid round as the most transparent in Nigeria’s history and condemned anti-labour practices by companies such as 11PLC. The Executive Secretary of the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board, Felix Ogbe, emphasized the need for human capacity development, stating, “Human capacity is the true oil that will sustain Nigeria’s industry for generations.”
Elsewhere in Nigeria’s financial markets, the NASD Over-the-Counter Securities Exchange recorded a marginal loss of 0.02 percent on Thursday, with the NASD Unlisted Security Index dipping to 3,640.80 points. Market capitalization fell by N460 million to N2.178 trillion, and trading volume dropped sharply by over 91 percent to 1.5 million units. The Nigerian Naira, however, saw a modest gain against the US Dollar, appreciating by 29 Kobo to close at N1,535.89 per $1. The currency also strengthened against the Pound Sterling and the Euro, though traders expect the Naira to weaken to as much as N1,560 per Dollar in the coming week.
On the digital front, major cryptocurrencies took a hit. Dogecoin, Cardano, Solana, Ripple, and Binance Coin all declined in value, while Litecoin bucked the trend with a slight appreciation. Bitcoin and Ethereum also slipped, reflecting broader investor caution as the US Federal Reserve signals a continued hawkish stance on interest rates.
As the week draws to a close, the world watches and waits: for a breakthrough in Ukraine, for clarity from central bankers, and for stability in markets that remain as unpredictable as ever.
