Oil prices surged more than 2% on November 14, 2025, following a Ukrainian drone attack that damaged a Russian oil depot in the Krasnodar region, as reported by Reuters. The attack, which also struck three apartments and coastal structures, comes amid escalating tensions and tightening sanctions on Russian energy exports.
Brent crude futures jumped by $1.34, or 2.13%, reaching $64.35 a barrel by 0227 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $1.40, or 2.39%, to $60.09 a barrel. This rebound followed a sharp drop of over $2 per barrel just a day earlier, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) projected that global oil supply would slightly outpace demand in 2026—a reversal from its previous prediction of a deficit.
According to Haitong Securities, the plunge on November 13 released “pent-up bearish sentiment,” but markets quickly stabilized as traders and analysts reassessed the crude outlook in light of new geopolitical developments and looming sanctions. The operational headquarters of Russia’s Krasnodar region, posting on Telegram, confirmed that drone fragments had hit an oil depot and several residential and coastal sites, underscoring the vulnerability of energy infrastructure in the ongoing conflict.
In a move aimed at ramping up pressure on Moscow, the United States imposed sanctions on major Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft, prohibiting transactions with these firms after November 21, 2025. The sanctions are part of broader efforts to bring the Kremlin to peace talks over Ukraine. But the immediate impact is already being felt: JPMorgan estimates that about 1.4 million barrels per day of Russian oil—almost a third of the country’s seaborne export capacity—are currently being held in tankers, as sanctions have slowed unloading operations worldwide.
“After the cut-off date of November 21 for receiving oil supplied by the sanctioned companies, unloading cargoes could become significantly more challenging,” JPMorgan analysts noted on Thursday. This bottleneck has contributed to the recent price volatility, as traders weigh the risks of supply disruptions against signs of a potential global surplus next year.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a larger-than-expected increase in domestic crude inventories. For the week ending November 7, U.S. crude stocks rose by 6.4 million barrels to 427.6 million barrels, far surpassing analysts’ expectations of a 1.96 million barrel gain. Gasoline and distillate inventories, however, fell less than anticipated, further complicating the supply-demand picture.
While the world grapples with immediate shocks to oil supply and price swings, the conversation at the United Nations’ COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, has pivoted to the future of sustainable fuels. On November 14, Brazil announced an ambitious plan to quadruple global use of sustainable fuels—including biofuels, hydrogen, and biogases—by 2035. The proposal, which has already drawn support from 19 countries, aims to more than double global biofuel production, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Biofuels have long been touted as a cleaner alternative to fossil fuels, and Brazil stands as a global leader in their adoption. As of 2024, biofuels powered about a quarter of Brazil’s transport sector, supporting an estimated 762,000 jobs, according to a recent International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) report. Roberto Braun, head of the Toyota Foundation in Brazil, told Context at the summit, “This is a realistic and immediate solution to reduce carbon emissions in the transport sector, not only in Brazil, but in other nations, especially those in the Global South.”
India, too, has made significant strides in boosting its ethanol blend in petrol, saving roughly $12 billion in oil imports over the past decade. The country began selling petrol mixed with 20% ethanol (E20) in 2025, five years ahead of schedule—a move the government claims has helped avoid 54 million metric tons of carbon emissions in the past ten years. However, the rapid expansion has come with trade-offs: concerns about arable land being diverted from food to fuel, and complaints from drivers about engine damage.
Critics, including environmentalists and scientists, warn that scaling up biofuel production could have unintended consequences for food security and natural ecosystems. “When land grows fuel instead of food, someone else must clear more land, or eat less,” said Timothy Searchinger, a senior research scholar at Princeton University, in comments to Reuters. He added, “Countries believe they are cutting emissions because biofuel emissions are counted as zero. In reality, they shift the pressure onto land and food systems.”
A letter signed by more than 100 scientists ahead of COP30 cautioned that meeting the growing demand for transport biofuels could require about 52 million hectares of cropland by 2030—an area roughly the size of Spain. Without strict safeguards, they argued, subsidies and targets for crop-based fuels could deepen food and forest crises. “Safeguards, such as caps on food and feed crops, and no recognition of high-emitting feedstocks like palm and soy oil, are essential,” said Cian Delaney, a campaigner with Transport & Environment (T&E).
Ruairi Brogan, a senior policy officer at the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) UK, expressed concern: “When the (Brazilian COP30) presidency is pitching transition from fossil fuels and it mentions sustainable fuels in the next breath we have a roadmap for disaster. The biggest thing about the pledge is the scale. We don’t have the land for that.”
Brazilian officials, however, point to the country’s record of sustainable expansion. Over the past 25 years, 98% of agricultural growth for biofuels in Brazil has reportedly occurred on degraded lands, minimizing the impact on food production and forests. “Ethanol blending is not rocket science,” Braun argued, emphasizing that the technology is well established in Brazil and is being successfully developed in countries like India.
Still, the challenges are real. India may need to cultivate between 4 million and 8 million extra hectares of maize by 2030 to sustain its E20 blend, according to Ramya Natarajan of the Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy. “The trade-offs will be hard to avoid,” she said.
There are greener alternatives on the horizon, such as producing biofuels from non-edible plants, agricultural residues, or even algae. Yet, these technologies have struggled to scale up in India and elsewhere. Searchinger cited a report for the World Resources Institute noting that solar panels could generate more than 100 times as much usable energy per hectare as biofuels.
As nations navigate the complex interplay of energy security, climate goals, and economic development, the events of this week underscore just how high the stakes have become. From drone attacks disrupting oil flows to contentious debates over the future of biofuels, the path to a sustainable energy future remains fraught with tough choices and competing priorities.
For now, the world watches as markets react, policymakers negotiate, and scientists warn that every solution comes with its own set of challenges—reminding everyone that in the quest for cleaner energy, there are no easy answers.
