In the final stretch before New Jersey’s pivotal gubernatorial election on November 4, 2025, the Garden State has become a battleground for national political heavyweights, massive campaign spending, and a contest that’s tightening by the day. With Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli locked in a race that pollsters say is far from decided, both parties are pulling out all the stops—enlisting former presidents, pouring in millions, and zeroing in on every last undecided voter.
Former President Barack Obama is set to campaign alongside Sherrill in Newark on November 1, a move that underscores just how much is at stake for Democrats. As reported by WABC, the rally is designed to energize the party’s base and boost turnout in a state where, despite a significant Democratic registration advantage, recent elections have shown anything but predictable results. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has thrown his full support behind Ciattarelli, hosting a series of tele-rallies and robocalls, and declaring on Truth Social, “Jack Ciattarelli is a winner for New Jersey.”
“This is just only one year after national elections, it’s very important, kind of bellwether to see where the country may be leaning,” Peter Kasabach, Executive Director of NJ Future, told WABC. That sentiment is echoed across the political spectrum, as strategists and analysts eye New Jersey as a crucial indicator of national mood and momentum heading into 2026.
The high-profile endorsements and visits are matched by an unprecedented flood of campaign cash. According to the New York Post, the Democratic National Committee announced a $500,000 investment across off-year races in New Jersey, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, bringing the DNC’s total known investment in New Jersey to at least $3 million this cycle. The Democratic Governors Association has gone even further, spending $20 million on ads—more than triple the $6 million spent by the Republican Governors Association, as per the New Jersey Globe.
“At this DNC, there’s no such thing as an off year anymore because every election counts,” DNC chair Ken Martin said in a statement reported by the New York Post. “It’s our moment to show Donald Trump and the Republicans that their time in power is coming to an end. The stakes couldn’t be higher. We’re going to spend the next two weeks fighting for every single vote.”
Despite the financial advantage, Democrats are showing signs of anxiety. Sherrill currently holds a slim lead—four points, according to a mid-October Fox News poll (48% to 44%)—but that margin has narrowed from a seven-point lead just a month earlier. The latest RealClearPolitics polling aggregate gives Sherrill a similar four-point edge, but several polls, including one from Emerson College and an internal Ciattarelli survey, have shown the race dead even or even tilting slightly toward the Republican.
“I don’t think the race is put away, I don’t think the race is over. I think Ciattarelli has a shot here,” Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, told CBS News. “But there’s no question, I think, that she’s ahead at this point.” Rasmussen emphasized that with more than 850,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in New Jersey—and over 2.3 million Independents as of October 2025—the real question is who will actually show up to vote. Turnout in the 2024 presidential election was 65%, but dropped to just 40% in the 2021 governor’s race, a gap that could make all the difference in a close contest.
Both campaigns are focusing heavily on regions that have swung dramatically in recent years, particularly South Jersey. In 2017, Governor Phil Murphy carried Atlantic, Cumberland, and Gloucester counties by double digits, but in 2021, Ciattarelli flipped all three by double digits, contributing to Murphy’s much narrower victory. Both candidates have campaigned aggressively in these areas, hoping to tip the balance in their favor.
“I think South Jersey is really up for grabs, and that portends well for probably both of them, because they both have a shot,” Rasmussen said. “They both could compete strongly, and will compete strongly, I think, in South Jersey.”
While Sherrill’s campaign has highlighted her work on critical state issues—such as the Gateway Tunnel Project, which her team says was threatened by Trump’s administration—her record in Congress has become a flashpoint. According to Fox News, Sherrill has missed 145 House votes since January 3, 2025, accounting for 53% of all votes in the 119th Congress. That’s the highest absentee rate among House members, and a sharp contrast to her peers. In the last three months alone, she participated in only eight of 63 votes, or just 13%.
“She ran for re-election to Congress in 2024 knowing full well she had no intention of doing her job. And when she did show up, the two most consequential votes she cast were to raise taxes on working people and shut down the government,” Ciattarelli strategist Chris Russell told Fox News. “That Sherrill missed nearly 90% of the votes she was supposed to cast over the last three months is shameful.”
Sherrill’s campaign, for its part, insists she’s “out there every day fighting for New Jersey on critical issues, like the Gateway Tunnel Project, which Trump ‘terminated’ and said ‘is going to be dead,’” according to her communications director Sean Higgins. Political experts say it’s not unusual for candidates to miss votes during a statewide campaign, but the scale of Sherrill’s absences is notable—and her opponents are making sure voters know about it.
“It certainly suggests that it’s a close enough race that Sherrill has to spend as much time as she can in New Jersey and that can lead to missing votes in Washington,” Matthew Green of Catholic University told Fox News. “It’s not uncommon to miss votes. But if you do that too much, your opponent can say, ‘Oh, you’re not doing the job you have now, why should the voters trust you with a new job?’”
Ciattarelli, meanwhile, has positioned himself as the “Jersey guy,” blasting Sherrill for her absences and painting himself as a candidate who understands local issues and is present for voters. Both candidates have been making their final pitches across the state, with early voting running from October 25 to November 2.
Underlying the campaign rhetoric is a deeper anxiety about the future direction of the state—and perhaps the nation. Governor Phil Murphy, who narrowly defeated Ciattarelli in 2021 with Obama’s support, addressed the volatility and economic anxiety facing New Jersey at the Aspen Ideas: Economy Newark Festival on October 21. “There’s an unprecedented amount of volatility that leads to a lot of uncertainty, economic anxiety,” Murphy said, highlighting affordability as a top issue for voters.
With just days left before voters head to the polls, the outcome remains uncertain. The last time New Jersey elected a governor from the same party for three consecutive terms was in 1965, underscoring the historical stakes. As Obama and Trump make their final pitches, and both parties pour resources into every corner of the state, all eyes are on turnout—and on whether New Jersey will once again defy expectations.
