As Nigeria gears up for its 2027 general elections, the nation finds itself at a crossroads—facing both political upheaval and a crisis of confidence in its electoral system. The events of August 2025 have cast a spotlight on the fragility of opposition coalitions and the urgent need for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to restore public trust through its Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise. With the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) confidently predicting victory for President Bola Tinubu’s second-term bid, and opposition alliances fracturing, the stakes for Nigeria’s democracy have rarely felt higher.
On August 16, 2025, by-elections held across the country delivered a stark message to the opposition: not a single seat was won by the newly formed coalition, which had only weeks earlier adopted the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as its political platform for 2027. This resounding defeat was not just a setback—it signaled, according to some, the beginning of the end. Leke Abejide, the lawmaker representing Yagba East/Yagba West/Mopamuro in the House of Representatives, was blunt in his assessment. “You can see that the coalition collapsed last Saturday; all over the country, they could not even win one seat. That was the beginning of the end,” Abejide told Channels Television’s The Morning Brief on August 22. He predicted the coalition would “collapse completely” by September, citing internal discord and a lack of genuine ownership among its leaders.
Abejide, who described himself as the “landlord” of the ADC, argued that the party’s current stature was largely his doing. “I didn’t establish the party, but I am the one who made the party remain where it is today. I have never decamped to a big party; I have used it [the ADC] to contest all my elections and brought people, apart from myself, to the National Assembly and the state assembly,” he said. He further claimed that most coalition leaders, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi, were never card-carrying members of the ADC prior to its adoption as the coalition’s platform.
The coalition itself is a who’s who of Nigerian politics. Alongside interim ADC chairman David Mark and national secretary Rauf Aregbesola, the alliance includes Malam Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, Senator Dino Melaye, Solomon Dalong, Senator Gabriel Suswam, Dele Momodu, Senator Ireti Kingibe, Emeka Ihedioha, and retired Air Marshal Sadique Abubakar. Despite this impressive roster, the group’s inability to convert political capital into electoral victories has left its future in doubt.
The ruling APC, meanwhile, has remained steadfast in its belief that any coalition aimed at unseating President Tinubu will ultimately fail. Their confidence is underpinned by the opposition’s current disarray and the APC’s own electoral machinery, which has proven resilient in recent years. Yet, as the political drama unfolds, another story is quietly taking shape—one that could prove just as consequential for Nigeria’s democratic future.
On August 18, 2025, INEC officially launched the latest phase of Continuous Voter Registration across the country. This exercise, which allows citizens who have just turned 18, missed previous registrations, or need to update their voter information, is a critical step in preparing for the 2027 polls. In theory, the announcement should have sparked widespread enthusiasm. But as Emeka Alex Duru wrote in a widely circulated column, “The Commission currently has a bad image among the people. The CVR should be a new beginning for it to get it right.”
Trust, or rather the lack of it, looms large over every aspect of the electoral process. Since Prof Mahmood Yakubu’s appointment as INEC chairman in October 2015, the commission has struggled to shake off allegations of electoral manipulation and incompetence. The February 25, 2023 presidential election, in particular, became a flashpoint. Promises of reform, including the much-touted Bimodal Voters Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Results Viewing Portal (IReV), failed to deliver the transparency many Nigerians hoped for. Instead, the outcome was marred by controversy, with accusations that both Yakubu and then-President Muhammadu Buhari had failed to honor their pledges of a free and fair process.
Subsequent elections in states like Edo, Ondo, Kogi, Imo, and by-elections in Zamfara, the Federal Capital Territory, and Anambra have only deepened public skepticism. Allegations of vote manipulation and the involvement of INEC officials have become depressingly familiar. “In all the incidences of vote manipulation and rigging, INEC officials were fingered,” Duru observed, capturing the frustration of many Nigerians. These recurring controversies have contributed to low voter turnout and widespread apathy, especially among young, first-time voters who should ideally be energized by the chance to shape their country’s future.
Yet, despite this climate of distrust, Duru and other civic advocates insist that disengagement is not the answer. “Apathy to registration due to the ugly past of the INEC cannot be solution to the challenges in the system but will rather encourage emergence of corrupt and bad leadership,” he argued. The message is clear: for Nigeria’s democracy to thrive, citizens must participate in the process, starting with voter registration.
INEC, for its part, faces a pivotal test. The commission’s handling of the CVR will serve as a bellwether for the credibility of the 2027 elections. “How effective the CVR exercise is handled will go a long way in previewing the success of the 2027 elections. The least Nigerians expect from the Prof Mahmood Yakubu-led INEC is a credible voter registration exercise as a prelude to a transparent election in 2027. There should be no margin for error, this time,” Duru wrote. With Yakubu set to leave office in October 2025 at the end of his second term, hopes are high that his successor will usher in a new era of accountability and transparency. But as Duru cautioned, if the next INEC chairman simply continues the “Tinubu charade,” the prospects for Nigerian democracy could dim even further.
For now, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. The collapse of the opposition coalition, the lingering distrust in INEC, and the high expectations for the upcoming CVR all point to a nation at a turning point. Whether Nigeria can overcome these challenges and deliver a credible, inclusive election in 2027 will depend not only on political leaders and electoral officials, but on the willingness of ordinary citizens to engage—however imperfect the process may be. With so much at stake, the coming months will reveal whether Nigeria’s democracy can weather this storm and emerge stronger on the other side.