As the 2028 presidential race looms on the horizon, the Democratic Party finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with shifting power dynamics, evolving political strategies, and a restless electorate. Recent developments in California and Iowa reflect broader trends and tensions within the party, as leaders seek to balance progressive energy, centrist caution, and the ever-present pursuit of national attention.
In California, Governor Gavin Newsom has made a bold—and some say risky—move by enlisting progressive firebrand Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to champion Proposition 50, a controversial redistricting measure. On September 26, 2025, Newsom unveiled an ad featuring Ocasio-Cortez, urging Californians to support Prop. 50 as a way to "stop President Donald Trump." The campaign also launched a Spanish-language version, targeting the state's large Hispanic population, according to reporting by Axios.
This partnership is more than just a local alliance. For Newsom, aligning with Ocasio-Cortez signals a calculated effort to court progressives, a constituency he sees as vital for both the ballot measure and his own national ambitions. As Axios noted, "Newsom clearly believes that in order to win—and position himself as Democrats’ leader ahead of his own 2028 presidential bid—he must court progressives." For Ocasio-Cortez, campaigning in California, far from her New York district, is a chance to raise her national profile as her team reportedly eyes a 2028 run for higher office.
Yet, the strategy is fraught with peril. While California's deep-blue base may be more welcoming to Ocasio-Cortez than other states, her national image is polarizing. A recent Economist/YouGov poll found that 65% of Democrats view her favorably, but among independents—a crucial voting bloc—just 31% share that sentiment. Nationally, she is "6 points underwater" in favorability, with 34% viewing her positively versus 40% negatively.
Still, the numbers suggest Newsom needs every progressive vote he can muster. Emerson College polling from September 26, 2025, showed that 50.6% of California voters planned to support Proposition 50, with 49% either opposed or undecided. A UC Berkeley poll painted a similar picture: 48% in favor, 52% opposed or unsure. Support is strongest among young, college-educated Democrats and those identifying as "strongly liberal"—76% of whom back Prop. 50, compared to just 42% of moderates.
With his political reputation and future leadership role on the line, Newsom has pulled out all the stops, raising $70 million to promote the measure. But the stakes are high: if Prop. 50 fails, the national spotlight could turn a local defeat into a broader embarrassment, potentially damaging Newsom's standing ahead of 2028.
The fight over Prop. 50 also comes against a backdrop of increasing skepticism toward progressive policies in California. Despite the state's liberal reputation, recent elections have shown a shift toward the center. In 2024, Donald Trump improved his performance in California, flipping 10 counties and increasing his vote share in 45—a remarkable feat for a Republican in the Golden State. Local elections have also seen the recall of San Francisco's progressive district attorney, the replacement of the city's progressive mayor with a centrist Democrat, and the passage of Prop 36, which strengthened criminal penalties.
As the party grapples with these crosscurrents, a parallel drama is unfolding in Iowa, a state that once held outsized influence in the presidential nominating process. After the Democratic National Committee (DNC) stripped Iowa of its first-in-the-nation status following the 2020 caucus debacle, many assumed the era of candidates flocking to Des Moines was over. Yet, as The New York Times reports, Democrats are once again making pilgrimages to Iowa, drawn by the state's enduring political infrastructure and media spotlight.
Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland became the latest high-profile visitor in September 2025, using the occasion to criticize colleagues for their delay in endorsing New York City mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani. Other notable Democrats—including Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg, Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego, and former Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel—have also made appearances. Emanuel, now the Biden administration's ambassador to Japan, was scheduled to speak at a Des Moines event the weekend of September 27, 2025, and openly acknowledged his own presidential ambitions, telling reporters, "I’m actively thinking about it. And if I have something that needs to be said that nobody else is saying, I’m going to do it."
The continued attention to Iowa is puzzling, given that President Joe Biden directed the DNC in 2022 to make South Carolina the first state to vote in the 2024 primaries, effectively ending Iowa's early-state dominance. DNC chairman Ken Martin went further in 2025, removing Iowa's delegates from the powerful rules committee, signaling little appetite to restore the state's former status for 2028. Yet, as Emanuel and others admit, the media coverage and political infrastructure in Iowa remain unmatched, making it an irresistible stage for aspiring candidates.
Some Iowa Democrats refuse to accept their diminished role quietly. Brian Meyer, Democratic leader in the Iowa House, has floated the idea of holding first-in-the-nation caucuses regardless of the DNC's calendar, inspired by New Hampshire's defiance in 2024. Meyer argues that with Republicans still prioritizing Iowa and the national media guaranteed to show up, the state could reclaim its place in the spotlight. "If they’ve been mentioned as a presidential candidate, they’re going to want to be in front of the news here," Meyer observed. "It is the muscle memory."
Meyer also acknowledged the need for reform, proposing that Iowa Democrats abandon the complex delegate tabulations that led to the 2020 fiasco in favor of a straightforward vote count, similar to the Republican caucuses. He predicts that establishment figures like Newsom are unlikely to challenge the DNC's authority, but "if you’re an insurgent candidate and you’re going to use guerrilla tactics to get some leverage and traction in a place that is going to be covered by the media anyway, you have an opportunity to get the attention that a long-shot candidate needs."
This dynamic—between party insiders seeking control and insurgent candidates chasing opportunity—mirrors the broader struggles within the Democratic Party. As progressives gain influence, centrist resistance remains strong, and the quest for national relevance leads candidates to unlikely places. The result is a party in flux, pulled between competing visions and uncertain about its path forward.
For now, California and Iowa serve as microcosms of the Democratic dilemma: how to harness energy and enthusiasm without alienating key voters, and how to balance tradition with innovation. With the 2028 race already taking shape, the choices made in these states may well set the tone for the party—and the country—in the years to come.
