On September 30, 2025, a timely podcast episode brought together Lauren Gloudeman, Director of China at Eurasia Group, and Ilana Bet-El, Senior Associate Fellow at the European Leadership Network, to dissect China’s evolving role in a world marked by shifting alliances and mounting tensions. Just two days later, New Zealand’s Security Intelligence Service (SIS) thrust China into the spotlight again, labeling it the “most active” and “particularly assertive and powerful” foreign actor in the Pacific, according to its annual threat report. The convergence of these events underscores a growing unease among Western nations about Beijing’s ambitions and methods, and the complex dance of power playing out across the globe.
The podcast, recorded at the end of September, did not shy away from the big questions. With Donald Trump’s presence looming large—his face and words omnipresent from the United Nations General Assembly to the White House—America’s own turmoil set the backdrop for the discussion. The United States, grappling with a government shutdown, a shaky economy, and deep political divides, seemed to be stepping back from its traditional leadership role. Meanwhile, China appeared to be stepping forward, but with its own set of challenges and contradictions.
Lauren Gloudeman, whose expertise on China is widely recognized, painted a picture of a country at a crossroads. On one hand, China is “lapping up the Global South,” hosting world leaders, and marking significant historical anniversaries with military parades, as reported by the European Leadership Network. On the other, it is negotiating trade deals with the U.S., dealing with the fallout from Trump’s tariffs, and facing economic turmoil at home. The question, as posed by the podcast, is whether China can truly fill the void left by a retreating America—or if it’s simply another actor caught in the global storm.
This uncertainty is echoed in the SIS report released on October 2, which described China not only as assertive, but as willing to “engage in covert or deceptive activity to influence discussions and decisions, or gain access to technology and information that can help them meet these goals.” The annual report, titled “New Zealand’s Security Threat Environment,” is designed to inform the public about the risks facing the nation. This year, the tone was particularly stark. Director-General of Security Andrew Hampton warned, “New Zealand’s threat environment is deteriorating and that has a direct impact on our safety and security,” as cited by DW and other outlets.
New Zealand’s concerns are not limited to China. The SIS report also flagged Russia and Iran as countries willing to meddle in New Zealand’s affairs, and highlighted a rising risk from lone-actor extremism, often stoked by online radicalization. Yet it was China that drew the sharpest focus, particularly in the context of the Pacific region, where geopolitical competition has intensified in recent years. As part of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance—alongside Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States—New Zealand finds itself in the crosshairs of this new great-power rivalry.
In response to these mounting threats, Wellington announced a significant increase in defense spending: NZ$2.7 billion (about $1.6 billion or €1.38 billion) to bolster its defense forces. The move signals a clear recognition that the Indo-Pacific is no longer a quiet backwater, but a central stage in the contest for influence and security.
Beijing, for its part, was quick to push back. The Chinese Embassy in Wellington dismissed the SIS report’s claims as “groundless” and accused New Zealand of adopting a “Cold War mentality.” According to the embassy spokesperson, “The accusations sound very familiar as they rehash smears and slanders fabricated elsewhere, repackaged for the New Zealand audience.” The statement went on to assert, “The healthy and stable development of bilateral relations depends on the joint efforts from both sides.” As reported by DW, Beijing insists it regards New Zealand “as a friend and partner,” and warns that such accusations “poison” the relationship.
This diplomatic exchange is emblematic of the broader tensions between China and the West. On the podcast, Gloudeman and Bet-El explored the notion of a “new Cold War” between China and Western nations—a phrase that, for many, conjures images of ideological standoffs and proxy conflicts. While the world today is far more interconnected than during the original Cold War, the undercurrents of suspicion and competition are unmistakable. China’s support for Russia in its ongoing war against Ukraine, as mentioned in the European Leadership Network discussion, has only deepened Western anxieties about Beijing’s intentions and alliances.
Yet, as the podcast highlighted, China’s position is not as unassailable as it may seem. Despite its assertive foreign policy and growing military might, China is grappling with serious economic headwinds. Overproduction has led to a glut in global markets, and the country’s own economy is showing signs of strain. Trump’s tariffs, though controversial, have had a noticeable impact, and both countries are locked in a complex negotiation over trade. At the same time, China has made commitments at international forums like the UN Climate conference—gestures that suggest it wants to be seen as a responsible global actor, even as it pursues its own interests with vigor.
For New Zealand, the challenge is to navigate these turbulent waters without losing sight of its own interests and values. The SIS report is a call to vigilance, but also a reminder of the delicate balancing act required in a world where alliances are shifting and the stakes are high. As the Director-General of Security put it, “the threat environment is deteriorating,” and the country’s response must be both robust and nuanced.
The European Leadership Network, which facilitated the podcast discussion, is careful to point out that it holds no formal policy positions. Its aim, instead, is to foster debate and help Europe—and, by extension, its partners—develop the capacity to address pressing foreign, defense, and security challenges. In this spirit, the conversation between Gloudeman and Bet-El serves as a microcosm of the larger global debate about China’s rise, the future of the international order, and the role of smaller nations in shaping their own destinies.
As Western countries reassess their own positions and priorities, China’s actions—and reactions—will continue to be watched closely. The events of this week, from the podcast’s probing questions to New Zealand’s stark warnings and Beijing’s swift rebuttal, offer a vivid snapshot of a world in flux, where old certainties are fading and new realities are taking shape.
In the end, the story of China’s place in the world is still being written, shaped by the interplay of ambition, anxiety, and the enduring quest for security and influence.
