New York’s political landscape is shifting, and the latest Siena College Research Institute poll, conducted November 10-12, 2025, among 802 registered voters, paints a picture of a state wrestling with uncertainty and division. The poll, with a margin of error of ±4%, reveals that a six-point majority of New Yorkers now believe the state is headed in the wrong direction. Nearly three-quarters of respondents—72%—are worried about affording health insurance, underscoring the economic anxieties that continue to shape the public mood.
Governor Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, remains ahead of her Republican challenger, U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik, in the hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial race. Hochul leads Stefanik by 20 points, 52% to 32%, according to Siena, a margin that has narrowed since September’s 25-point spread but is still wider than August’s 14-point gap. Among independent voters, the race is tightening: Hochul’s lead is now just four points, 40% to 36%, down from an 18-point advantage in September. Stefanik’s support among Republicans has surged to 79%, up from 68% just two months ago. As Siena pollster Steven Greenberg put it, “Eight months out from primary day, Hochul has a commanding lead over Delgado among all Democrats, as well as upstaters and downstaters, men and women, liberals and moderates.”
Yet, the governor’s numbers are slipping. Hochul’s favorability rating stands at 43% favorable to 45% unfavorable, down two points from September, and her job approval rating has also dipped to 52% approval versus 43% disapproval. When asked about the 2026 election, only 42% of voters said they would support Hochul, while 48% preferred someone else. Of those seeking an alternative, 53% want a Republican and 30% would opt for another Democrat. In a potential Democratic primary, Hochul maintains a substantial 56% to 16% lead over Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, who remains relatively unknown to most voters.
Stefanik, who officially launched her gubernatorial campaign on November 7, 2025, is gaining ground, especially among Republicans and independents. Her campaign has framed the contest as a referendum on Hochul’s leadership, pointing to other polls that suggest a more competitive race. The Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, released a poll in late October showing Stefanik with a one-point lead statewide, 43% to 42%. The Washington Examiner published a separate poll last week giving Stefanik a three-point edge. Meanwhile, J.L. Partners polling found that 55% of respondents said it was “time for someone new,” and that Stefanik would capture 75% of a hypothetical Republican primary vote.
Regionally, Hochul’s lead is strongest in New York City, where she holds a 42-point advantage. That margin shrinks to nine points in the suburbs and just three points upstate, according to Siena. These numbers reflect the broader shifts in voter enrollment. While Democrats still dominate statewide at 48.15%, their share has slipped in recent years. The biggest change is the rise of unaffiliated or “blank” voters, who now make up 25.24% of the electorate, surpassing Republicans at 22.41%. In the purple suburbs downstate, unaffiliated voters account for nearly 29% of registered voters, making this group a key battleground in the upcoming election.
National politics are also at play. Stefanik, who represents all or part of 15 counties in New York’s 21st Congressional District, has raised her national profile as a staunch supporter of former President Donald Trump and his MAGA agenda. However, Trump remains deeply unpopular in New York, with a 35% favorability rating and just 37% job approval. According to Siena, New Yorkers—especially Democrats and most independents—strongly oppose several recent Trump administration actions, including demolishing the East Wing of the White House to build a ballroom (64% opposed), increasing tariffs (61% opposed), and prosecuting officials critical of Trump such as New York Attorney General Letitia James (57% opposed). Other moves, like bombing boats Trump accused of being Venezuelan drug traffickers and cutting funding for the Gateway train tunnel to New Jersey, were also opposed by majorities.
Immigration remains a flashpoint. Sixty-one percent of voters opposed federal immigration officials, often in masks and without uniforms, rounding up undocumented immigrants. Almost half—48%—believe New York should oppose federal efforts to deport migrants living legally in the state, and a 53% to 36% majority said immigrants should not be deported if their only crime is being in the U.S. illegally. These sentiments are sharply divided along party lines: 82% of Republicans want the state to support federal immigration enforcement, while 68% of Democrats want the opposite. Nearly three-quarters of Republicans believe undocumented immigrants should be deported, while a similar share of Democrats disagree.
On the economic front, voters support raising taxes on the top 5% of earners and on large corporations based in New York, both by about 60%. Democrats and independents strongly support these measures, but Republicans are opposed, with 51% against higher income taxes for the wealthy and 50% against higher corporate taxes. Health care is another key issue: 72% of New Yorkers worry about affording health insurance, and a 59% to 21% majority want Congress to renew Obamacare subsidies, which recently lapsed and led to a government shutdown. Democrats overwhelmingly support renewing the subsidies, as do a majority of independents, but Republicans are opposed.
Infrastructure and energy policy are also on voters’ minds. New Yorkers favor a new underwater gas pipeline in New York City by a 45% to 33% margin. Supporters, including 60% of Republicans and 46% of independents, argue that it would provide a more affordable energy source, improve the electric grid, and create jobs. Opponents, including 41% of Democrats, counter that new fossil fuel projects contradict the state’s climate goals, pollute the air, and could drive up utility bills.
Prominent political figures are facing headwinds. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, has reached his lowest favorability rating in 21 years of Siena polling, at 32% favorable to 55% unfavorable. Even among Democrats, Schumer’s favorability is barely positive at 45% to 43%. His popularity among Republicans has plummeted since his days as a bipartisan figure in 2016. New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic socialist, has a 55% to 31% favorability rating in the city and an even 40% to 40% split statewide. Voters in the city believe Mamdani will be good for New York, but those in the suburbs and upstate are more skeptical.
Despite the turbulence, there are glimmers of consensus. Statewide, 58% of voters think Mamdani and Hochul will work together to improve New Yorkers’ quality of life, a sentiment shared by majorities of Democrats, pluralities of Republicans, and independents. Yet, when it comes to working with Trump, voters are far more pessimistic, with 67% doubting any productive collaboration.
As the 2026 election approaches, New York’s political environment is defined by close margins, shifting alliances, and a public that is anxious about the future. The coming year promises plenty of twists and turns as candidates vie for the support of an electorate that is anything but settled.
