With just days remaining before New Jersey voters head to the polls on November 4, 2025, the state’s gubernatorial race between Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched—and unpredictable—contests in the nation. Polling data, shifting voter perceptions, and a swirl of national and local issues have combined to create an atmosphere of uncertainty, with both campaigns scrambling to energize their bases and sway the all-important undecided voters.
According to a recent Quantus Insights poll reported by The New York Post on October 29, 2025, 53% of likely New Jersey voters believe their co-workers and neighbors are backing Ciattarelli, compared to 47% who think the same about Sherrill. Yet, paradoxically, the same poll puts Sherrill ahead in the actual vote intention, leading Ciattarelli by a slim 49% to 46% margin. This gap between perception and reality has left analysts scratching their heads, especially in light of the state’s recent electoral history.
"This finding shows that Republicans, Democrats and Independents alike recognize that momentum is surging for Jack Ciattarelli, and that’s why he’s on track to win next Tuesday," New Jersey-based GOP strategist Jeanette Hoffman told The New York Post. Among Republican voters, the perception is even more pronounced: a striking 83% believe their neighbors support Ciattarelli.
Despite these perceptions, most polling aggregates—including the latest from RealClearPolitics—have consistently given Sherrill a modest edge, averaging a 3.7 percentage point lead. But New Jersey’s polling has a recent history of underestimating Republican support. In 2021, Ciattarelli was widely expected to lose by double digits to then-incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy, only to come within three points of victory. That experience has left both parties wary of reading too much into this year’s numbers.
Early voting data, meanwhile, suggests an advantage for Sherrill and the Democrats. According to figures compiled by Michael Pruser, Director of Data Science for Decision, 54% of early voters are Democrats, compared to 28% Republicans and 18% undeclared or affiliated with other parties. This is bolstered by New Jersey’s substantial Democratic registration edge—about 800,000 more Democrats than Republicans, though that margin has shrunk from one million in recent years.
Yet, as Washington Monthly observed in a detailed review of the race published on October 30, 2025, New Jersey’s political landscape remains remarkably elastic. The state has swung dramatically between parties over the decades, both in gubernatorial and presidential contests. While Joe Biden carried New Jersey by nearly 16 points in 2020, and Hillary Clinton by 13 in 2016, the 2024 presidential race saw Kamala Harris win the state by only six percent—a near-death experience for Democrats in what had been considered a reliably blue state.
Sherrill, a 53-year-old Navy veteran, former federal prosecutor, and mother of four, emerged from a fiercely competitive Democratic primary field that included Rep. Josh Gottheimer, the mayors of Newark and Jersey City, and the head of the state’s teachers’ union. Her credentials—flipping a Republican district in 2018 and earning a reputation as a moderate, bipartisan dealmaker—made her a favorite among party strategists. As Washington Monthly put it, she “seemed like she was created in a political consultant’s lab as a symbol of change, but not scary change.”
Ciattarelli, now 63, is no stranger to New Jersey politics or to close contests. He was the GOP nominee in 2021 and came closer than anyone expected to unseating Murphy. This year, he’s aiming to ride a wave of Republican energy—and perhaps some Democratic disaffection—back into contention. Still, he faces headwinds: the state’s Democratic tilt, Trump’s continued unpopularity in New Jersey, and the challenges posed by an ongoing government shutdown, for which voters tend to blame the GOP.
Both campaigns have made their share of missteps. Sherrill has faced criticism for her handling of questions about her family’s finances—most notably in a podcast interview with Charlamagne tha God, where she stumbled when asked if she had made millions from stock trades, replying, “I, I haven’t … I don’t believe I did.” While the truth is that she doesn’t trade individual equities and her family’s wealth has grown mostly through rising home values and the stock market, the awkward exchange was widely seen as a missed opportunity to put the issue to rest.
Sherrill has also been criticized for overemphasizing her Naval service on the campaign trail and for repeatedly tying Ciattarelli to Donald Trump, a strategy that resonates with some voters but risks sounding repetitive. As one young Black voter told reporters after a debate at Rider College, “She talked too much about Donald Trump.” The sentiment was echoed by Washington Monthly: “Yoking your opponent to the omnipresent and unpopular Trump makes total sense, up to a point. Voters know that the governor’s job is not the same as a member of Congress.”
For his part, Ciattarelli has struggled to broaden his appeal beyond the Republican base. Asked about his outreach to Black and Hispanic voters, he simply replied, “Next question,” a move widely panned as tone-deaf given Trump’s gains with those groups in recent years. His running mate, James Gannon, didn’t help matters when he said, “Taxes are on the table, but I’d be careful of millionaire taxes. They’re employing us … what I’m saying, the millionaires, we can’t just beat up the millionaires. The millionaires, sometimes, are employers; they’re employing us.”
Historical trends offer both hope and warning for each side. No party has held New Jersey’s governorship for three consecutive terms in over 60 years, a fact that weighs on Democrats hoping to extend their run after Murphy’s two terms. At the same time, the state’s last successful Republican governors—Christie Todd Whitman in 1993 and Chris Christie in 2009—won in the wake of unpopular Democratic presidents and governors. This time, the dynamics are more complicated: Murphy’s approval ratings are modest, but Trump’s are even lower, and the government shutdown is hurting the GOP brand.
Republicans have been out-registering Democrats in recent months, signaling a possible late surge for Ciattarelli. Yet, as Washington Monthly notes, New Jersey’s electorate is famously volatile. The state has gone from solidly Republican in the postwar era to reliably Democratic in recent decades, but its gubernatorial races remain anything but predictable.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, both sides are acutely aware that nothing is guaranteed. Sherrill’s campaign, chastened by scares and stumbles, is taking nothing for granted, while Ciattarelli’s team is hoping history repeats itself with another polling surprise. The only certainty is that New Jersey’s voters, as always, will have the final say—and if the past is any guide, they may well keep the rest of the country guessing until the very end.
