New Jersey’s gubernatorial race, once considered a safe bet for Democrats, has erupted into a fiercely competitive contest, with just weeks to go before Election Day. Representative Mikie Sherrill, a four-term Democratic congresswoman and Navy veteran, is locked in a statistical dead heat with Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman who narrowly lost the 2021 race. What’s driving this unexpected showdown? A volatile mix of record-breaking spending, voter unease, and campaign missteps have upended the political landscape in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly a million voters.
According to a Politico analysis, total spending in the race has already soared past $72 million, with projections suggesting expenditures could exceed $250 million by the time ballots are counted on November 4. That’s not just a staggering number for New Jersey—it’s one of the highest ever for a state-level contest in the United States. The financial arms race is fueled by both parties and their national allies, who see the Garden State as a crucial bellwether for the 2026 midterms.
Sherrill, once hailed as a star recruit to succeed outgoing Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, has raised over $7.3 million and secured $18.5 million in public matching funds. Her campaign is bolstered by the Democratic Governors Association’s super PAC, Greater Garden State, which has pledged more than $20 million in advertising, and the Democratic National Committee’s additional $3 million investment. In total, $42.4 million has been committed to support her bid.
Ciattarelli, meanwhile, was first to qualify for New Jersey’s $12.5 million public funding match and has amassed $6.4 million, including a surge in donations following a strong debate performance on September 21. Two Republican super PACs—Restore New Jersey and Change NJ—have poured roughly $11 million into his campaign, bringing total Republican support to $29.9 million so far. Carlos Cruz of Change NJ told Politico, “This is a real opportunity to win. We’re seeing energy in places Republicans haven’t been competitive in years.”
But it’s not just the money that’s making headlines. For the first time in the 2025 election cycle, Republican mail-in ballot returns have surpassed those from Democrats, according to election analyst Michael Pruser. As of early October, 18.6% of all returned mail-in ballots came from Republicans, compared to 16.6% from Democrats and 9.3% from other parties. While Democrats still account for 62.3% of all mailed ballots, the higher Republican return rate marks a significant reversal from past trends—one that has Democrats privately sounding the alarm.
The shifting dynamics have exposed vulnerabilities in Sherrill’s campaign. Several Democratic strategists, speaking to Axios, pointed to “a series of stumbles” and an unclear message from the candidate, despite heavy investment from national groups. “She’s got the résumé, but not the rhythm,” one Democratic strategist lamented. Others criticized her reliance on Washington consultants and a perceived failure to connect with voters on kitchen-table issues like inflation and energy costs. Irene Lin, a Democratic strategist not working on the race, remarked, “She has spent a fortune on polling and has no message beyond she flies helicopters and Ciattarelli loves Trump. Tired anti-Trump attacks aren’t enough.”
Sherrill has also faced scrutiny for her handling of questions about her personal finances and stock trades. In a May interview with radio host Charlamagne tha God, she appeared uncertain when asked about allegations of making $7 million through stock trades, responding, “I, I haven’t … I don’t believe I did,” and stating she would need to check the source of the claim. Ciattarelli’s campaign quickly capitalized, launching a website titled MikieMadeMillions.com to highlight the exchange.
Another campaign headache emerged when Sherrill struggled to name a specific piece of legislation she would prioritize as governor during a CBS New York interview. Ciattarelli’s team pounced, using the clip in ads portraying her as unprepared. A pro-Ciattarelli super PAC released an ad featuring Sherrill saying clean energy would “cost you an arm and a leg, but if you’re a good person, you’ll do it.” Axios clarified that Sherrill was criticizing her own party’s messaging at the time, not advocating higher costs, but the damage was done. The Republican Governors Association, backing the group behind the ad, declined to address the context, instead doubling down on criticism of Sherrill’s record on energy.
Sherrill’s campaign has attempted to counter these attacks by emphasizing her focus on lowering costs for New Jersey families. Campaign manager Alex Ball told Axios that affordability “has been her message since Day One,” and insisted she does not own or trade individual stocks. He added, “She’s been underestimated before, and she’ll win again.”
Still, the Republican campaign has made notable inroads, particularly among independents and Black communities that have historically favored Democrats. Ciattarelli, endorsed by former President Donald Trump but careful to distance himself from Trump’s election claims, has focused on tax relief, supporting law enforcement, and economic issues. He’s also secured endorsements from former Democrats and labor leaders dissatisfied with the state’s direction under Democratic leadership.
Polling underscores the razor-thin margin: an Emerson College, PIX11, and The Hill survey conducted September 22-23 found both candidates tied at 43%, with 11% of voters undecided. This mirrors similar findings from late September and highlights just how competitive the race has become in a state President Joe Biden won by double digits in 2020. The contest has also reignited debate over Sherrill’s background at the United States Naval Academy, where she was barred from participating in her 1994 graduation ceremony after refusing to identify classmates involved in a cheating scandal. Her campaign maintains that the episode is being misrepresented by opponents and points to her decade of military service as evidence of her character.
Meanwhile, grassroots Republican organizers are working to maximize turnout, with Early Vote Action’s Scott Presler telling Breitbart News Saturday that the race is “winnable” for Republicans if they take advantage of early voting and mail-in options. Presler noted that the 2021 contest was decided by just 84,000 votes, despite hundreds of thousands of Republicans staying home. “We don’t need equal footing to win. We just need voters to realize they have a choice,” said Kate Gibbs, executive director of the New Jersey GOP.
As the campaigns hurtle toward the finish line, both sides are pouring resources into television, digital, and grassroots outreach. Democrats hope to leverage their numerical advantage and national support, while Republicans are banking on enthusiasm and a shifting political climate to deliver an upset. With the eyes of the nation on New Jersey, the outcome of this battle could offer an early glimpse into the political winds heading into 2026—and perhaps beyond.
With so much at stake and the race too close to call, New Jersey voters are set for an Election Day that may shape the state’s—and the nation’s—political future in ways few could have predicted just months ago.
