With just weeks before New Jersey voters head to the polls to pick their next governor, the race between Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli has become a microcosm of national political tensions, local anxieties, and shifting voter allegiances. The contest, set for November 2025, is drawing intense scrutiny not only for its razor-thin margins but also for what it might signal about the political climate ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
For Democrats, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Concerns have been mounting among party leaders and strategists that Black and Hispanic voter turnout—long considered the backbone of their coalition—could be worryingly low this cycle. As reported by The Hill, some blame lingering apathy stemming from last year’s presidential showdown between Vice President Harris and President Trump, while others point to years of failed outreach and a lack of specificity in candidates’ agendas.
Dr. John Harmon, founder and president of the African American Chamber of Commerce of New Jersey, voiced the frustration felt by many: “I believe that although our next governor has to represent the entire state—and we’re okay with that—but where do Black people land in the conversation? We should be at the top of the food chain, particularly from the Democratic Party side.” Harmon’s sentiment echoes a broader demand for candidates to articulate concrete plans for minority- and women-owned businesses, public contracts, and project labor agreements—issues highlighted in last year’s New Jersey Disparity Study, which found minority-owned businesses were awarded substantially fewer public contracts than their white-male-owned counterparts.
Rep. Sherrill, who is seeking to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy, has acknowledged these concerns. Speaking after a recent gubernatorial debate in New Brunswick, she emphasized that affordability remains the top issue: “We know that about 70 percent of white families and only about 30 percent of Black families in the state own their homes, and so that first-time homebuyer [program] can help people get into that first home and actually create generational wealth.” Her campaign has rolled out initiatives such as the Save Your Time and Money Agenda and declared a state of emergency on utility costs, all aimed at boosting economic empowerment in communities of color.
Still, some critics argue that Sherrill’s proposals lack the specificity needed to energize skeptical voters. Harmon, for one, noted, “I don’t want to bring President Trump into this conversation, but I will say whether you love him or hate him, he’s doing what he says he’s going to do.” He urged Sherrill to be just as forthright in detailing her commitments.
Meanwhile, the Republican camp is seizing the moment. Jack Ciattarelli, who narrowly lost to Murphy by just three points in 2021, is making his third run for governor. According to Fox News, Ciattarelli’s campaign is touting a more diverse and robust team this time around, with a “very concerted effort to be present in [Black and Hispanic] communities and aggressively fight for votes that maybe in the past, have been traditionally not Republican but are finding a lot of enthusiasm and a lot of openness to hearing Jack’s message and to engaging with the campaign,” as campaign strategist Chris Russell put it.
Ciattarelli has also secured endorsements from notable figures such as John Wayman Henry III, a former chair of the economic development commission in West Orange, who previously backed Sherrill’s primary challenger, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka. Henry explained his support: “He has offered specific solutions to improving healthcare, education and opportunity for Black-owned businesses. Whether or not he is your candidate, the larger point remains we cannot keep showing up to dances where we’re never allowed to lead.”
Yet, the race has been anything but cordial. Sherrill has repeatedly accused Ciattarelli of being too closely aligned with the MAGA movement. During the final debate, she charged, “He’s shown zero signs of standing up to this president. In fact, the president himself called Jack 100% MAGA, and he’s shown every sign of being that.” Ciattarelli, for his part, distanced himself from the national movement, declaring, “I’m part of a New Jersey movement.” But when pressed to grade President Trump’s performance in his second term, Ciattarelli replied, “I’d certainly give the president an A. I think he’s right about everything that he’s doing.” Sherrill shot back, “I think that tells us all we need to know about who Jack Ciattarelli’s supporting. I give him an F right now.”
As the campaign enters its final stretch, Sherrill is pulling out all the stops. According to Fox News, she has campaigned alongside high-profile Democratic governors Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Wes Moore of Maryland—both seen as potential 2028 presidential contenders. Former President Barack Obama endorsed her campaign, stating, “This November, we have an opportunity to chart a different path forward—to reject the chaos in Washington and lower costs in New Jersey—and I’m so grateful to have President Obama’s support and endorsement in this race.” Sherrill has also joined Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin for a “No Kings” rally in Montclair, a direct rebuke of Trump’s sweeping second-term agenda.
But the race’s intensity is matched by its unpredictability. A Decision Desk HQ polling average and a recent Fox News poll both show Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by just 5 points—49% to 44% and 50% to 45%, respectively—down from an 8-point lead in late September. The margin falls within the poll’s sampling error, underscoring the volatility of the electorate. Notably, New Jersey has a history of electing governors from the party out of power in the White House, a trend that would favor Democrats this year. However, the state hasn’t elected a governor from the same party in three consecutive elections in over half a century, which could give Republicans hope.
External events have further complicated the contest. The campaign was rocked when Sherrill’s military personnel files were mistakenly released to a Ciattarelli ally—a blunder that revealed she was barred from participating in her 1994 Naval Academy graduation due to a cheating scandal. Sherrill has also accused Ciattarelli of being complicit with pharmaceutical companies in the opioid crisis, pointing to his former company’s role in promoting opioids as low-risk treatments.
On the ground, both candidates are working feverishly to mobilize supporters. Sherrill’s schedule has been packed with rallies, roundtables, and canvassing events in key communities, joined by prominent allies like Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and Gov. Wes Moore. Ciattarelli, meanwhile, is expected to benefit from tele-rallies with President Trump, whose endorsement could be pivotal in what’s expected to be a low-turnout election.
As Michael Bland, executive director of Black Men Vote and a Sherrill supporter, observed, “There’s a misnomer that Black men don’t vote or care about politics,” but the real issue is that “campaigns often don’t message to, complete outreach or poll the demographic.” Ana Maria Hill of 32BJ SEIU, another Sherrill endorser, believes that any apathy that existed last year has been replaced by a sense of urgency: “The apathy might have existed last year, but I think there is too much fear now on the line for people to be quiet.”
The outcome in New Jersey will not only decide who leads the state for the next four years but may also offer a preview of the political winds shaping the nation’s future. With both sides fighting for every last vote, the Garden State’s gubernatorial contest is shaping up to be a defining moment in a year already rife with uncertainty.
