With just days remaining before New Jersey voters head to the polls on November 4, 2025, the race for governor has become one of the most closely watched—and hotly contested—in the country. According to an October 31 AtlasIntel survey, Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill holds a razor-thin lead over Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli, with 50.2% support to Ciattarelli’s 49.3%. That’s a mere 0.9% difference, signaling what many are calling a political "jump ball" in a state that has long leaned blue but is no stranger to political surprises.
As reported by The Christian Science Monitor, the contest has become a high-stakes showdown, hinging on whether voters see the election as a referendum on state leadership or on the broader direction of the country. The dynamic has only intensified in recent weeks, thanks in no small part to President Donald Trump’s decision to block funding for the Gateway tunnel project—a $16 billion infrastructure initiative vital to both New Jersey and New York City. The move, announced on October 1, has injected national politics directly into the state race, with both candidates scrambling to frame the issue to their advantage.
Jack Ciattarelli, a three-time gubernatorial candidate and lifelong New Jerseyan, has embraced Trump’s policies and support, even posing in front of posters with the president at his Somerville campaign office. “His policies have worked, and I support those policies and support him,” Ciattarelli told The Christian Science Monitor. Yet, while he touts his ties to Trump, Ciattarelli has sought to keep the focus squarely on state issues—especially New Jersey’s notoriously high taxes and the recent spike in utility bills, which have emerged as top concerns for voters. He blames the cost of living on Democratic leadership in Trenton and promises to reverse policies like the state’s ban on plastic bags and New Jersey’s participation in a regional climate pact.
Meanwhile, Mikie Sherrill, a moderate congresswoman and former Navy helicopter pilot, has worked tirelessly to tie Ciattarelli to Trump and his more controversial decisions. The Gateway tunnel funding freeze has provided her with a powerful talking point: she’s promised to sue the Trump administration to restore the money if elected, arguing that Ciattarelli’s loyalty to the president makes him unwilling to stand up for New Jersey. “That shows you the kind of leverage Jack Ciattarelli has over Trump,” Sherrill said after a campaign rally, adding, “I think Trump just doesn’t care about what Jack Ciattarelli thinks. ... Ciattarelli has just been currying Trump’s favor. I think he’s his lackey. I don’t think he’s going to be the type of leader that New Jerseyans would need.”
For voters, the Gateway tunnel is no small matter. The project, the largest ongoing infrastructure effort in the country, would not only modernize century-old rail lines under the Hudson River but also create 95,000 new jobs and serve more than 200,000 daily commuters. Trump’s decision to halt funding—described as a move to pressure Democrats during a government shutdown—has left many New Jerseyans frustrated and anxious about the state’s economic future. At a rally with former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Sherrill drove home her message: Ciattarelli “would rather see those workers get hurt and commuters get hurt than display one inch of independence from his dear leader,” Buttigieg declared. “If he can’t stand up for the Hudson tunnels, there’s no way that he’s going to stand up for you.”
Ciattarelli, for his part, insists he’s better positioned to secure federal support for New Jersey because of his relationship with Trump. He calls the Gateway tunnel “a critically important project to the region,” but rejects the idea of suing the White House, arguing that “a governor of any state has an obligation to have a working relationship with the president.” He’s made clear he believes negotiation, not litigation, is the answer: “We’re not suing the White House,” he told The Christian Science Monitor. “It’s been made clear already that my opponent will not. That’s not good for New Jersey.”
This isn’t the only area where Ciattarelli has sided with Trump. He’s also echoed the president’s hardline stance on immigration, promising to “better secure New Jersey” and keep federal forces out of the state. However, he’s been less forthcoming about whether he supports the administration’s ramped-up immigration raids, dodging direct answers when pressed by reporters.
The race has also exposed sharp divisions within both parties. Some Democrats have criticized Sherrill’s campaign as overly cautious and bland, arguing that she’s failed to energize the base. “I think she’s running a very mediocre and bland race, while he’s running a much stronger race. But I think that the Trump factor is playing and motivating many people to come out and vote for her,” said Jeff Tittel, former head of the New Jersey League of Conservation Voters. Others, like former Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski, see the criticism as a sign of anxiety over the tight race. “In a race with stakes this high, everybody is giving the candidate contradictory advice because they’re anxious, because they can’t imagine waking up the morning after the election having lost New Jersey to the MAGA Trump party,” Malinowski told The Christian Science Monitor.
Republicans, meanwhile, are watching Ciattarelli’s campaign closely. Once a vocal critic of Trump—he called the then-candidate a “charlatan who is out of step with American values” in 2015—Ciattarelli has since done a political about-face, embracing Trump’s endorsement and rallying the GOP base. He’s even distanced himself slightly from the MAGA label, telling voters during a debate, “I’m part of the New Jersey movement.” Still, his support for Trump’s policies is unwavering, and the president’s endorsement helped him secure the GOP nomination over local MAGA favorite Bill Spadea.
With the election looming, the stakes could hardly be higher. New Jersey hasn’t elected governors from the same party to three consecutive terms in more than 60 years—a trend Sherrill hopes to break. Yet, as history has shown, the state’s voters are nothing if not unpredictable. In 2021, Ciattarelli came within three points of an upset, despite trailing by nearly eight points in pre-election polls. This year, polling averages have Sherrill up by about seven points, but some surveys—like the recent AtlasIntel poll—suggest a much closer race.
Ultimately, the outcome may hinge on which issues resonate most with voters: the state’s affordability crisis and high taxes, or the national drama swirling around Trump and his policies. As Ciattarelli confidently put it when asked about the possibility of defeat, “We’re going to win.” For Sherrill, the message is clear: New Jersey’s future is at stake, and she’s betting that voters will reject what she calls “the MAGA Trump party.”
On Tuesday night, the Garden State will have its say—deciding not only who will lead New Jersey, but perhaps also offering an early glimpse into the nation’s political mood heading into the next round of national elections.
