As New Jersey approaches its pivotal gubernatorial election on November 4, 2025, the race between Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill has reached a fever pitch, captivating both state residents and national observers. With just two weeks left until voters cast their ballots, recent polls show Sherrill holding a slim 5-point lead over Ciattarelli—50% to 45%—according to surveys conducted by Fox News, Quinnipiac University, and Fairleigh Dickinson University between October 10 and 14. This narrowing gap has injected a sense of urgency and unpredictability into a contest already marked by sharp personal attacks, policy disputes, and the looming presence of national political figures.
At the heart of the campaign lies the issue most pressing to New Jerseyans: affordability. Voters have repeatedly cited concerns over soaring housing prices, high taxes, and escalating energy costs as their top priorities. Both candidates have attempted to address these anxieties, but the dialogue has frequently been overshadowed by negative campaign ads and heated debate exchanges. According to The Star-Ledger and NJ.com, the airwaves and social media feeds have been flooded with accusations and counter-accusations, reflecting the high stakes and intensity of this year's race.
Jack Ciattarelli, who is making his third consecutive bid for the governor's mansion, is no stranger to close contests. Having narrowly lost to Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy in 2021, Ciattarelli now seeks to capitalize on recent Republican gains in the state and the momentum generated by former President Donald Trump's improved showing in New Jersey during the 2024 presidential election. Trump, who lost the state by only six percentage points last year—a significant improvement from his 16-point deficit in 2020—has announced plans to hold a tele-rally with Ciattarelli ahead of Election Day. As Fox News reported, this move is designed to energize MAGA supporters, particularly those who might otherwise sit out a non-presidential election year.
"Championship teams finish strong… let's win this race," Ciattarelli urged his supporters at a recent rally, signaling his determination to close the gap in the campaign's final days. His optimism is rooted in history: despite New Jersey's reputation as a blue state, Republicans have won five out of the last ten gubernatorial elections, often defying expectations and party registration numbers.
On the other side, Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot and current U.S. Representative, has sought to nationalize the race by framing it as a referendum on Donald Trump and his policies. "When we vote, we win," Sherrill declared over the weekend, rallying her base and emphasizing the importance of turnout. She has consistently highlighted her opposition to Trump, hoping to mobilize the state's sizable Democratic electorate and independents wary of a return to Trump-era politics. Yet, some political analysts, including Ben Dworkin of Rowan University's Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship, have questioned whether Sherrill risks leaning too heavily on anti-Trump sentiment in a year without the former president on the ballot.
The campaign has not shied away from personal and contentious issues. In a particularly explosive development, the National Personnel Records Center mistakenly released Sherrill's military records—including sensitive personal information—to a Ciattarelli ally. The records revealed that the United States Naval Academy had barred Sherrill from participating in her 1994 graduation due to a cheating scandal. Importantly, Sherrill was never accused of cheating, and she went on to serve nearly a decade in the Navy. Nevertheless, Ciattarelli has publicly questioned the circumstances of her service, a move that has drawn criticism from Sherrill and her supporters, who see it as an unwarranted personal attack.
For her part, Sherrill has accused Ciattarelli of bearing responsibility for thousands of opioid-related deaths in New Jersey. She pointed to his medical publishing company, which, she alleges, promoted content claiming opioids were a low-risk treatment for chronic pain. As reported by Fox News, Sherrill stated that Ciattarelli was "complicit" with pharmaceutical companies, a charge he has vigorously denied and threatened to sue over. The opioid crisis remains a deeply emotional and political issue in the state, and the exchange has added another layer of bitterness to an already acrimonious campaign.
The race was further jolted last week when President Trump abruptly "terminated" billions of federal dollars for the Gateway Project—a massive infrastructure initiative to build a new train tunnel under the Hudson River, connecting New Jersey and New York. The project is widely regarded as critical to the region's economy and transportation system. Sherrill, speaking at a commuter rail station near the tunnel site on October 16, did not hold back: she criticized both Trump and Ciattarelli for jeopardizing the project, framing the issue as one of economic security and regional competitiveness.
Beyond the drama of the New Jersey contest, the state's election is viewed as a bellwether for national political trends, alongside Virginia's gubernatorial race and other high-profile contests this November. Democrats, still recovering from losing control of the White House and Senate last year and falling short in the House, are touting their recent successes in special elections. Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin recently boasted, "There's wind at our back. We have overperformed in every single election that's been on the ballot since Donald Trump was inaugurated."
Republicans, however, see things differently. Zach Parkinson, communications director for the Republican National Committee, countered that "Democrats' approval rating is at a 30-year low as the party has hemorrhaged more than 2 million voters over the past four years." The GOP is eager to use the New Jersey race as a showcase for its resurgence, hoping to ride national discontent over inflation, taxes, and governance into a victory in a state long considered out of reach.
One question that continues to loom is whether voter turnout will match the intensity of the rhetoric. Without a presidential race at the top of the ticket, both parties are working overtime to mobilize their supporters. Democrats are banking on their edge in registration and the anti-Trump message, while Republicans are counting on their energized base and recent registration gains to close the gap.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, the outcome remains uncertain. Will New Jersey voters prioritize affordability and local issues, or will national politics and personal controversies tip the scales? With both candidates locked in a battle that has become as much about character and values as it is about policy, the state is bracing for a dramatic finish. One thing is certain: the result will echo far beyond the Garden State, offering clues about the nation's political direction heading into the 2026 midterms.
With the stakes high and the electorate divided, New Jersey's 2025 gubernatorial race is shaping up to be one for the history books.
